SLCESGNM Mar, 2009
Download http://www.cbrfc.noaa.gov/product/oup/text/SLCESGNM/SLCESGNM.1236281527.003
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FGUS65 KSTR 051934
ESGNM
TTAA00 KSLR DDHHMM
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
COLORADO BASIN RIVER FORECAST CENTER
SALT LAKE CITY UT
MAR 5, 2009
INTERNAL NWS PRODUCT FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY
SAN JUAN RIVER BASIN SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK
The potential for spring 2009 flooding due to snowmelt in the San Juan Basin
is not high at this time. Most rivers and streams over the upper portions of the
San Juan, Navajo, Piedra, Animas and La Plata are forecast to remain below
bankfull.
Current snowpack as of March 1st for the entire San Juan Basin is 105 percent
of average. February precipitation was 75 percent of average across the entire Basin,
with seasonal totals since October 2008 at 105 percent of average. The volume
forecast for the April-July runoff period is average.
It is also important to keep in mind that an extended period of high
temperatures resulting in rapid snowmelt, or heavy rainfall during the peak
flow period when stream channel capacities are reduced, may cause or exacerbate
flood problems in any year.
Specific spring peak flow forecasts (maximum mean daily flow) as of March 1st.
Forecast peaks for this year are 50% exceedance values. For full probabilistic
distributions of possible peaks, see:
http://www.cbrfc.noaa.gov/product/peakpeak.cgi
2009 Normal
Fcst 2008 Flood Bankfull Average Period
Peak Peak Flow Flow Peak of
River / Site (cfs) (cfs) (cfs) (cfs) (cfs) Peak
------------------ ------- ------- ------- ------- ------ -----------
San Juan - 2900 2870 6840 5170 2485 5/15 - 6/12
Pagosa Springs
Animas - 4750 5850 9555 5970 4675 5/28 - 6/14
Durango
Animas - 4880 6080 8810 6580 4900 5/31 - 6/15
Farmington
San Juan - 9040* 8850 40485 29325 7340 5/21 - 7/4
Bluff
* - Peak flow forecast on the San Juan below Navajo Reservoir include
the most probable Spring Release of 21 days at 5,000 cfs. The Spring
Release will start with a week long ramp up period from 500 cfs to 5000 cfs
in the middle of May and end with a week long ramp down period from 5000 cfs
to 500 cfs starting in the middle of June.
CBRFC
NNNN
$$