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ESGNM 
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NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
COLORADO BASIN RIVER FORECAST CENTER
SALT LAKE CITY UT
APR 7, 2009

           INTERNAL NWS PRODUCT FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY

 SAN JUAN RIVER BASIN SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK


The potential for spring 2009 flooding due to snowmelt in the San Juan Basin
is not high at this time. Most rivers and streams over the upper portions of the
San Juan, Navajo, Piedra, Animas and La Plata are forecast to remain below 
bankfull.

Current snowpack as of April 1st for the entire San Juan Basin is 90 percent
of average. March precipitation was 45 percent of average across the entire Basin,
while seasonal totals since October 2008 were 95 percent of average. The volume
forecast for the April-July runoff period is near to below average.

It is also important to keep in mind that an extended period of high
temperatures resulting in rapid snowmelt, or heavy rainfall during the peak
flow period when stream channel capacities are reduced, may cause or exacerbate
flood problems in any year.

Specific spring peak flow forecasts (maximum mean daily flow) as of April 1st.
Forecast peaks for this year are 50% exceedance values. For full probabilistic
distributions of possible peaks, see: 

http://www.cbrfc.noaa.gov/product/peak/peak.cgi


                       2009                                          Normal
                       Fcst      2008      Flood  Bankfull  Average  Period
                       Peak      Peak      Flow     Flow     Peak      of
River / Site           (cfs)     (cfs)     (cfs)   (cfs)    (cfs)     Peak
------------------    -------   -------   -------  -------  ------  -----------
San Juan -             2900      2870      6840     5170     2485   5/15 - 6/12
   Pagosa Springs

Animas -               4600      5850      9555     5970     4675   5/28 - 6/14
   Durango

Animas -               4800      6080      8810     6580     4900   5/31 - 6/15
   Farmington

San Juan -             8500*     8850     40485    29325     7340   5/21 - 7/4
   Bluff

* - Peak flow forecast on the San Juan below Navajo Reservoir include 
the most probable Spring Release of 14 days at 5,000 cfs. The Spring 
Release will start with a week long ramp up period from 500 cfs to 5000 cfs
in late May and end with a week long ramp down period from 5000 cfs
to 500 cfs starting in the middle of June. 

CBRFC


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