FGUS65 KSTR 081308
ESGNM 
TTAA00 KSLR DDHHMM
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
COLORADO BASIN RIVER FORECAST CENTER
SALT LAKE CITY UT
June 8, 2009

           INTERNAL NWS PRODUCT FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY

 SAN JUAN RIVER BASIN SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK


The potential for spring 2009 flooding due to snowmelt in the San Juan Basin
is very low. Rivers and streams over the upper portions of the San Juan,
Navajo, Piedra, Animas and La Plata have reached their snowmelt peaks.

Current snowpack as of June 1st for the entire San Juan Basin is 10 percent
of average. May precipitation was 110 percent of average across the entire Basin,
while seasonal totals since October 2008 were 95 percent of average. The volume
forecast for the April-July runoff period is below average.

Specific spring peaks (maximum mean daily flow) as of June 8th. Forecast peaks
for this year were 50% exceedance values. For full probabilistic distributions
of possible peaks, see: 

http://www.cbrfc.noaa.gov/product/peak/peak.cgi


                                                                     Normal
                       2009      2008      Flood  Bankfull  Average  Period
                       Peak      Peak      Flow     Flow     Peak      of
River / Site          (cfsd)    (cfsd)     (cfs)   (cfs)    (cfsd)    Peak
------------------    -------   -------   -------  -------  ------  -----------
San Juan -             2690*     2870      6840     5170     2485   5/15 - 6/12
   Pagosa Springs

Animas -               5160*     5850      9555     5970     4675   5/28 - 6/14
   Durango

Animas -               5240*     6080      8810     6580     4900   5/31 - 6/15
   Farmington

San Juan -             5740*     8850     40485    29325     7340   5/21 - 7/4
   Bluff

* preliminary peaks

CBRFC


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