SLCESGNM Apr, 2010
Download http://www.cbrfc.noaa.gov/product/oup/text/SLCESGNM/SLCESGNM.1270561986.000
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SLCESGNM
TTAA00 KSLR DDHHMM
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
COLORADO BASIN RIVER FORECAST CENTER
SALT LAKE CITY UT
APR 6, 2010
INTERNAL NWS PRODUCT FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY
SAN JUAN RIVER BASIN SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK
The potential for spring 2010 flooding due to snowmelt in the San Juan Basin
is not high at this time. Most rivers and streams over the upper portions of the
San Juan, Navajo, Piedra, Animas and La Plata are forecast to remain below
bankfull.
Current snowpack as of April 1st for the entire San Juan Basin is 100 percent
of average. March precipitation was 70 percent of average across the entire Basin,
with seasonal totals since October 2009 at 105 percent of average. The volume
forecast for the April-July runoff period is near average.
It is also important to keep in mind that an extended period of high
temperatures resulting in rapid snowmelt, or heavy rainfall during the peak
flow period, may cause or exacerbate flood problems in any year.
Specific spring peak flow forecasts (maximum mean daily flow) as of April 1st.
Forecast peaks for this year are 50% exceedance values. For full probabilistic
distributions of possible peaks, see:
http://www.cbrfc.noaa.gov/product/peakpeak.cgi
2010 Normal
Fcst 2009 Flood Bankfull Average Period
Peak Peak Flow Flow Peak of
River / Site (cfsd) (cfsd) (cfs) (cfs) (cfs) Peak
------------------ ------- ------- ------- ------- ------ -----------
San Juan - 2000 2560 6755 4987 2485 5/15 - 6/12
Pagosa Springs
Animas - 3500 5010 9560 7083 4675 5/28 - 6/14
Durango
Animas - 3600 5170 8810 6580 4900 5/31 - 6/15
Farmington
San Juan - 7500* 5970 40250 29327 7340 5/21 - 7/4
Bluff
* - Peak flow forecast on the San Juan below Navajo Reservoir include
the most probable Spring Release of 21 days at 5,000 cfs. Currently, this will
happen starting from around may 27th through june 18th, and possibly coincide
with the Animas river peak.
CBRFC
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