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ESGNM 
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NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
COLORADO BASIN RIVER FORECAST CENTER
SALT LAKE CITY UT
MAY 7, 2010

           INTERNAL NWS PRODUCT FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY

 SAN JUAN RIVER BASIN SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK


The potential for spring 2010 flooding due to snowmelt in the San Juan Basin
is not high at this time. Most rivers and streams over the upper portions of the
San Juan, Navajo, Piedra, Animas and La Plata are forecast to remain below 
bankfull.

Current snowpack as of May 1st for the entire San Juan Basin is 75 percent
of average. April precipitation was 70 percent of average across the entire 
Basin, with seasonal totals since October 2009 at 100 percent of average. 
The volume forecast for the April-July runoff period is below average.

It is also important to keep in mind that an extended period of high
temperatures resulting in rapid snowmelt, or heavy rainfall during the peak
flow period, may cause or exacerbate flood problems in any year.

Specific spring peak flow forecasts (maximum mean daily flow) as of May 1st.
Forecast peaks for this year are 50% exceedance values. For full probabilistic
distributions of possible peaks, see: 

http://www.cbrfc.noaa.gov/product/peakpeak.cgi


                       2010                                          Normal
                       Fcst      2009      Flood  Bankfull  Average  Period
                       Peak      Peak      Flow     Flow     Peak      of
River / Site          (cfsd)    (cfsd)     (cfs)   (cfs)    (cfs)     Peak
------------------    -------   -------   -------  -------  ------  -----------
San Juan -             2000      2560      6755     4987     2485   5/15 - 6/12
   Pagosa Springs

Animas -               3500      5010      9560     7083     4675   5/28 - 6/14
   Durango

Animas -               3600      5170      8810     6580     4900   5/31 - 6/15
   Farmington

San Juan -             3800*     5970     40250    29327     7340   5/21 - 7/4
   Bluff

* - At this time a spring peak release from Navajo Reservoir is not planned.
This peak flow forecast assumes steady releases of 500 cfs throughout the
runoff period.

CBRFC


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