FGUS65 KSTR 051853
ESGNM 
TTAA00 KSLR DDHHMM
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
COLORADO BASIN RIVER FORECAST CENTER
SALT LAKE CITY UT
APR 5, 2011

           INTERNAL NWS PRODUCT FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY

 SAN JUAN RIVER BASIN SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK


The potential for spring 2011 flooding due to snowmelt in the San Juan Basin
is not high at this time. Most rivers and streams over the upper portions of
the San Juan, Navajo, Piedra, Animas and La Plata are forecast to remain below 
bankfull.

Current snowpack as of April 1st for the entire San Juan Basin is 80 percent
of average. March precipitation was 50 percent of average across the entire
Basin, with seasonal totals since October 2010 at 90 percent of average. The
volume forecast for the April-July runoff period is below average.

It is also important to keep in mind that an extended period of high
temperatures resulting in rapid snowmelt, or heavy rainfall during the peak
flow period, may cause or exacerbate flood problems in any year.

Specific spring peak flow forecasts (maximum mean daily flow) as of March 1st.
Forecast peaks for this year are 50% exceedance values. For full probabilistic
distributions of possible peaks, see: 

http://www.cbrfc.noaa.gov/product/peakpeak.cgi


                       2011                                          Normal
                       Fcst      2010      Flood  Bankfull  Average  Period
                       Peak      Peak      Flow     Flow     Peak      of
River / Site           (cfs)     (cfs)     (cfs)   (cfs)    (cfs)     Peak
------------------    -------   -------   -------  -------  ------  -----------
San Juan -             2050      2450      6750     4987     2485   5/15 - 6/12
   Pagosa Springs

Animas -               3800      4500      9554     7080     4675   5/28 - 6/14
   Durango

Animas -               3900**    4000      8810     6580     4900   5/31 - 6/15
   Farmington

San Juan -             8000*     4300     33838    29324     7340   5/21 - 7/4
   Bluff

* - Peak flow forecast on the San Juan below Navajo Reservoir include 
the most probable Spring Release of 7 days at 5,000 cfs with a ramp up
and ramp down period.

** - Animas Farmington determined by projected diversion from the Durango Pumping
Plant into Lake Nighthorse.

CBRFC


NNNN
$$