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NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
COLORADO BASIN RIVER FORECAST CENTER
SALT LAKE CITY UT
JAN 6, 2012

 SAN JUAN RIVER BASIN SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK

The 2012 spring runoff flood potential is not high at this time for streams
throughout the San Juan River Basin. The snowpack is generally below average
across the Basin for January 1st. Only a couple of high elevation sites have
snow conditions near average, and they remain  near 45% of their seasonal
peak that typically occurs in late April or early May.

Soil moisture is slightly elevated compared to average, in part due to a wet October.
Drier conditions occurred in November and December with below average precpitation. 
Seasonal precipitation is slightly above average at headwater locations but below 
average at lower elevations.

The majority of the snow accumulation occurs between now and April and
any current assessment of spring runoff flood threat may change dramatically
over the next 3-4 months. It is also important to note that heavy rainfall
combined with rapid snowmelt can result in flood related problems even
during low snowpack years.

The spring runoff flood potential will be re-evaluated in early February
and an updated product will be issued at that time. 

G. Smith/ CBRFC

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