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NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
COLORADO BASIN RIVER FORECAST CENTER
SALT LAKE CITY UT
Feb 3, 2012

 SAN JUAN RIVER BASIN SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK

The 2012 spring runoff flood potential is not high at this time for streams
throughout the San Juan River Basin. January was a dry month across the Basin and
the snowpack is below average, near 75 percent, across the Basin for February 1st. 

The soil moisture analysis was re-evaluated since January 1st, and the high
elevation headwater areas above Pagosa Springs were slightly elevated in comparison
to average entering the winter season. Elesewhere, in the Basin, particularly over
the southern half and in tributaries downstream from Navajo below average modeled
soil moisture existed. 

A sufficient period of snow accumulation season remains and conditions may
change over the next 2-3 months. It is also important to note that heavy rainfall
combined with rapid snowmelt, or during the runoff period when river channel
capacities are reduced, can result in flood related problems even
during low snowpack years.

The spring runoff flood potential will be re-evaluated in early March
and an updated product will be issued at that time. 

G. Smith/ CBRFC

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