FGUS65 KSTR 052012
ESGNM 
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NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
COLORADO BASIN RIVER FORECAST CENTER
SALT LAKE CITY UT
Mar 5, 2012

 SAN JUAN RIVER BASIN SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK

The 2012 spring runoff flood potential is not high at this time for streams
throughout the San Juan River Basin. Peak flow forecasts due to snowmelt runoff
are expected to be near their historical average as of March 1st. Forecasts at
the 10 percent exceedance probability are also below defined flood levels.

Above average precpitation occurred in the San Juan Basin during February
and the snowpack situation improved to between 80 to 100 percent of average as
of March 1st. Seasonal October through Feburary precipitation is near average.
   
Modeled soil moisture entering the winter season was slightly elevated compared
to average in the higher eleavtion headwater areas above Pagosa Springs. Elsewhere
conditions were below average, most noteably over the southern half of the
San Juan Basin and in tributaries downstream from Navajo Reservoir.
 
It's still early in the season to put great confidence in the peak flow forecasts
and flood potential. Snow accumulation generally occurs through April and the
situation could change between now and then.

Heavy rainfall combined with rapid snowmelt, or during the runoff period when river 
channel capacities are reduced, can also result in flood related problems even 
during low snowpack years.

The spring runoff flood potential will be re-evaluated in early April and an updated 
product will be issued at that time. 

G. Smith/ CBRFC

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