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NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
COLORADO BASIN RIVER FORECAST CENTER
SALT LAKE CITY UT
Apr 4, 2012

 SAN JUAN RIVER BASIN SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK

The 2012 spring runoff flood potential due to snow melt runoff is low
throughout the San Juan River Basin. Peak flow forecasts due to snow melt runoff
are for peaks below their historical average. Forecasts at
the 10 percent exceedance probability are also below defined flood levels.

Very dry conditions during March combined with above average temperatuers resulted
in an early onset to the snow melt at all elevation levels. As of April 1st
the snowpack, represented as a basin average, was 55 percent of average.
Several locations had snowpack conditions near 40 percent of average.
   
Modeled soil moisture entering the winter season was slightly elevated compared
to average in the higher eleavtion headwater areas above Pagosa Springs. Elsewhere
conditions were below average, most noteably over the southern half of the
San Juan Basin and in tributaries downstream from Navajo Reservoir.
 
While the much below average snowpack in the San Juan Basin has significantly
reduced any threat of snow melt runoff flooding, heavy rain during the snow melt
runoff period, or accelerated melt due to temperature extremes can still
cause high water issues. However it would likely require such conditions for
high water concerns to be realized given the current state of the snowpack.

Specific peak flow forecasts and graphics can be found at:

http://www.cbrfc.noaa.gov/gmap/cmap2.php?con=peak

G. Smith/ CBRFC

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