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NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
COLORADO BASIN RIVER FORECAST CENTER
SALT LAKE CITY UT
May 4, 2012

 SAN JUAN RIVER BASIN SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK

The 2012 spring runoff flood potential due to snow melt runoff is low
throughout the San Juan River Basin. Peak flow forecasts due to snow melt runoff
are for peaks well below their historical average. Forecasts at
the 10 percent exceedance probability are also below defined flood levels.

Very dry conditions during March and April combined with above average temperatuers 
resulted in an early onset to the snow melt at all elevation levels. As of May
1st many snow measuring sites have melted out. Several locations experienced
snow melting out 4-8 weeks earlier than average this year.

It is likely that snowmelt peaks have already occurred at many locations. 
However, high elevation streams with minimal regulation, may see higher flows
than what has happened thus far.

Due to the low flows associated with this year's snow conditions, rainfall may
contribute more to the magnitude of the final peak flows. However, flood related
issues due solely to snowmelt are unlikely.

Specific peak flow forecasts and graphics can be found at:

http://www.cbrfc.noaa.gov/gmap/cmap2.php?con=peak

G. Smith/ CBRFC

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