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NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
COLORADO BASIN RIVER FORECAST CENTER
SALT LAKE CITY UT
MAR 6, 2013

 SAN JUAN RIVER BASIN SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK

The 2013 spring runoff flood potential is low at this time for streams
throughout the San Juan River Basin. A dry February resulted in the snowpack
falling futher behind the average for this time of year. SNOTEL site Snow
Water Equivalent values range between 65 to 85 percent of average as
of early March.

Modeled soil moisture is below average due to the dry conditions throught the 
autumn months.

Additional snow accumulation typically occurs for another few weeks and
the snow melt flood threat may still change. However current peak flow
forecasts are for well below average, with most forecast sites only having a 
10% chance of nearing historical average snowmelt peaks.

Heavy rainfall during peak runoff when river channel capacities are reduced,
or rapid melt caused by extreme temperatures can result in flood related 
issues in any year.

G. Smith/ CBRFC

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