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NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
COLORADO BASIN RIVER FORECAST CENTER
SALT LAKE CITY UT
APR 4, 2013

 SAN JUAN RIVER BASIN SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK

Flood related issues due to snowmelt is not expected in the San Juan
Basin this spring. March, like February was very dry with current Snow
Water Equivalent values much below average. Modeled soil moisture
is also below average due to dry conditions in the fall of 2012.

Current peak flow forecasts are for well below average flows due to
snowmelt runoff. Most forecast sites only have a 10% chance of nearing
historical average snowmelt peaks.

Heavy rainfall during peak runoff when river channel capacities are
reduced, or rapid melt of snow caused by extreme high temperatures 
can result in flood related issues in any year.

G. Smith/ CBRFC

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