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NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
COLORADO BASIN RIVER FORECAST CENTER
SALT LAKE CITY UT
FEB 6, 2014

 SAN JUAN RIVER BASIN SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK

The 2014 spring runoff flood potential is not high at this time for streams
throughout the San Juan River Basin. January 2014 received below average 
precipitation and the snowpack fell further behind the historical medain
for this time of year. The snowpack ranges from 45 percent of median at lower
elevations to near average at higher elevations. Best snow conditions are 
at higher elevations in the Animas Basin. Soil moisture is above average
as well which suggests more efficient runoff from snowmelt, however
the impact of the elevated soil moisture may become neglibible if dry 
conditions similar to the last couple of springs develop.

Peak flows near average would be considered most probable at this point in time
however the situation is likely to change as we continue through the winter
and early spring.

Further assessment will be made regarding any snow melt flood threat as
the season progresses. 


G. Smith/ CBRFC

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