FGUS65 KSTR 041807
ESGNM 
TTAA00 KSLR DDHHMM
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
COLORADO BASIN RIVER FORECAST CENTER
SALT LAKE CITY UT
MARCH 4, 2015

 SAN JUAN RIVER BASIN SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK

The 2015 spring runoff flood potential is not high at this time for streams
throughout the San Juan River Basin. Snowpack conditions improved
slightly from early February due to a significant storm at the end of the month.
However, snowpack remains below the historical median sfor early March.

Seasonal precipitation (October-February) was below to much below average. 
Soil moisture was also below average across most of the basin entering the winter
season. 

Seasonal April-July streamflow volumes are expected to range between 50 and 75 
percent of the 1981-2010 average.

While conditions currently are not favorable for high flows due to snowmelt
conditions may still change as snow accumulation is possible at the higher 
elevations for another few weeks.

Further assessment will be made regarding any snow melt flood threat as
the season progresses.

Heavy rain during the snowmelt period may cause flood related problems in
any year.
 
Forecast peaks for a few sites are included below:

 
Forecast Site:             50%   Avg   Flood
                           FCST  
 
San Juan - Pagosa Springs 1400  2460    5000
Animas - Durango          3200  4575  10,200
Mancos near Mancos         180   290    2800
San Juan - Bluff          3000  7340  33,840
 
Better viewing options exist on the CBRFC web sites where
peak flows are generally updated twice monthly:

http://www.cbrfc.noaa.gov/lmap/lmap.php?interface=peak

 
G. Smith/ CBRFC