FGUS65 KSTR 032106
ESGNM 
TTAA00 KSLR DDHHMM
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
COLORADO BASIN RIVER FORECAST CENTER
SALT LAKE CITY UT
Mar 3, 2016

 SAN JUAN RIVER BASIN SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK

The 2016 spring runoff flood potential due to snowmelt runoff in the San
Juan Basin is not considered high at this time. A dry and warm
February melted lower elevation snow while the higher elevation snowpack
dropped below the historical median in many aeras for this time of year.

The latest snowmelt peak flow forecasts in the San Juan are all
below the historical average peak flows.

While the threat of snowmelt flooding is not considered high at
this time, the situation could still change as snow accumulation
typically continues into April at high elevations.

An active weather pattern appears to be developing for March
and if the storm trajectory ends up brigning significant 
precipitation to the San Juan Basin then peak flow forecasts
would likely increase.

It is also important to remember that High flows are possible in any 
year given the right conditions such as rapidly melting snow or 
heavy rain that occurs during the snow melt period.

Further assessment will be made regarding any snow melt flood threat as
the season progresses.

The latest peak flow forecasts for sites in the San Juan
Basin can be found on the CBRFC web site:

http://www.cbrfc.noaa.gov/rmap/peak/peaklist.php

 
G. Smith/ CBRFC

NNNN
$$