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NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
COLORADO BASIN RIVER FORECAST CENTER
SALT LAKE CITY UT
February 3, 2017

 SAN JUAN RIVER BASIN SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK


The flood potential due to snowmelt is considered higher than normal in the
San Juan Basin as of early February.  This is primarily due to a signficant
snowpack that exists for early February that ranges from near 140 to 200
percent of median.

Additionally a few SNOTEL sites in the Animas Basin and upper San Juan 
River headwaters have already met or exceeded the annual spring peak snowpack
that typically occurs in early April.

While hydrologic model guidance currently suggests no forecast points reaching
flood levels, above average spring runoff peaks are likely with bankfull conditions
possible. Procedures do not exist for all streams so areas that are prone
to flood related problems during high runoff have an increased threat
at this time particularly in those areas with heaviest snowpack.

With a couple of months remaining in the snow accumulation season several
scenarios are still possible therefore it is still too early for a solid 
snowmelt flood threat assessment. However the possibility exists of
adding to the snowpack in areas that have already reached the seasonal peak.

Heavy rain during the peak runoff period or a prolonged period of much above average
temperatures that enhance snowmelt may result in flood related problems in
any year.

Further assessment will be made regarding any snow melt flood threat as
the season progresses.
 
G. Smith/ CBRFC

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