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NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
COLORADO BASIN RIVER FORECAST CENTER
SALT LAKE CITY UT
Feb 2, 2018

 SAN JUAN RIVER BASIN SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK

The 2018 spring runoff flood potential due to snow melt is lower
than normal at this time. Near record low snowpack exists in early
February throughout much of the San Jan Basin. 
 
As of early February snowpack ranges between 20 and 60 percent of average
in most areas. Seasonal April-July runoff volumes are forecast to range
between 30 and 55 percent of average.

The current outlook for snowmelt peak flow is for seasonal snowmelt
peaks to be much below average.

The situation could still change with about 3 months of snow accumulation
season remaining. In addition high flows are possible in any given year
if heavy rainfall occurs particuarly during the peak snowmelt period.

Further assessment will be made regarding any snow melt flood threat as
the season progresses.
 
G. Smith/ CBRFC

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