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NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
COLORADO BASIN RIVER FORECAST CENTER
SALT LAKE CITY UT
Mar 8, 2018

 SAN JUAN RIVER BASIN SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK

The flood potential due to snowmelt is considered lower than normal in the
San Juan Basin as of early March. Snowpack conditions are less than 60 percent 
of the historical median in the San Juan Basin. At some SNOTEL sites current 
measurements are less than 40 percent of median.  Several of these sites 
indicate snowpack conditions in the bottom 2-4 of record (30-35 years of record).

Peak flow forecasts in the San Juan Basin call for mean daily peaks  
that are less than half of the average spring peak flow. These forecasts 
are also less than half of what was observed last spring. 

The situation is not expected to change as some snow melt is likely 
to occur with warmer temperatures next week. Significant snow accumulation
becomes less likely beyond mid April for most of the San Juan Basin.

Flood relates issues due to heavy rainfall are possible in any year,
however flood issues due solely to snowmelt runoff are not anticipated at this
time.

Specific peak flow forecasts can be found on the Colorado Basin River
Forecast Center website at: https://www.cbrfc.noaa.gov/rmap/peak/peaklist.php.
These forecasts are updated the first of each month and more frequently if needed.
 
G. Smith/ CBRFC

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