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NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
COLORADO BASIN RIVER FORECAST CENTER
SALT LAKE CITY UT
Feb 20, 2019

 SAN JUAN RIVER BASIN SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK

The 2019 spring runoff flood potential due to snow melt is not
high this time. Snowpack conditions have improved significanly in the
San Juan Basin over the past couple of weeks. 
 
As of February 20th snowpack in the San Juan Basin ranges from near
the historical median to about 130 percent of median. All areas are still 
below the normal seasonal peak snowpack that typically occurs in April. 

The latest hydrologic model guidance indicates April-July runoff volumes
in the 80 to 95 percent of average range. Model peak flow guidance indicates
spring peak flows near to slightly below average.

While flooding due solely to snowmelt isn't a frequent occurence in much
of the San Juan Basin, high flows are possible in any year due to
heavy rainfall or rainfall combined with melting snow. Given the increase
in snowpack any significant rainfall during the melt period would
have more impact than it might have just a couple of weeks ago. However,
at this time snowmelt alone is not anticpated to create flood related
problems.

The normal snowmelt accumulation period extends another 4 to 6 weeks
and the snowpack situation will continue to evolve.  

Further assessment will be made regarding any snow melt flood 
threat as the season progresses.
 
G. Smith/ CBRFC

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