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NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
COLORADO BASIN RIVER FORECAST CENTER
SALT LAKE CITY, UT
   

                      SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL 
             FOR THE COLORADO RIVER BASIN WITHIN COLORADO

                        March 5, 2020


The 2020 spring runoff flood potential due to snowmelt is not high at
this time for San Juan River basin. Dry conditions continue 
to dominate in the San Juan River basin. January-February
preciptation was in the bottom three of the historical record at
many locations. In addition to the dry winter, a dry fall resulted
in much below average soil moisture conditions. It is possible the 
dry soils could result in a decrease in overall runoff. However, it 
should be emphasized that snow typically accumulates into April; therefore 
conditions may change before the runoff begins. 

Precipitation and snow conditions as of March 1st are listed below.


PRECIPITATION (% OF AVERAGE) AND SNOWPACK (% OF MEDIAN):

SUBBASIN                 FEB PRECIP     OCT-FEB PREC    MAR 1 SNOWPACK
----------------------   ----------     ------------    ---------------
ABOVE NAVAJO RES              40             70                90
ANIMAS                        40             80                95     


Current model peak flow guidance indicates spring peak flows will be below
average at this time. However, specific forecast procedures and flood flow levels 
do not exist for all streams.

The current volume forecasts for the April through July runoff period are
below average, ranging between 60 and 70% of average. 

It is important to keep in mind that an extended period of much above normal 
temperatures or heavy rainfall during the melt period can cause or exacerbate 
flooding problems in any year.

The spring runoff potential will be evaluated in mid March and an updated
product will be issued at that time.

A list of specific spring peak flow forecasts are available at:
http://www.cbrfc.noaa.gov/rmap/peak/peaklist.php

A map of the current spring peak flow forecasts is available at:
http://www.cbrfc.noaa.gov/lmap/lmap.php?interface=peak



CBRFC/A.Nielson