SLCESGNM Apr, 2020
Download http://www.cbrfc.noaa.gov/product/oup/text/SLCESGNM/SLCESGNM.1586124510.007
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FGUS65 KSTR 052207
ESGNM
TTAA00 KSLR DDHHMM
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
COLORADO BASIN RIVER FORECAST CENTER
SALT LAKE CITY, UT
SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL
FOR THE COLORADO RIVER BASIN WITHIN COLORADO
April 5, 2020
The 2020 spring runoff flood potential due to snowmelt is not high at
this time for San Juan River basin. For the first time since December,
the San Juan basin had average precipitation in March. However,
seasonal precipitaion is still below normal at 75% of average.
In addition to the dry winter, a dry fall resulted
in much below average soil moisture conditions. It is possible the
dry soils could result in a decrease in overall runoff. However, it
should be emphasized that snow can through into April; therefore
conditions may change before the runoff begins.
Precipitation and snow conditions as of April 1st are listed below.
PRECIPITATION (% OF AVERAGE) AND SNOWPACK (% OF MEDIAN):
SUBBASIN MAR PRECIP OCT-MAR PREC MAR 1 SNOWPACK
---------------------- ---------- ------------ ---------------
ABOVE NAVAJO RES 90 70 100
ANIMAS 120 85 105
Current model peak flow guidance indicates spring peak flows will be below
average at this time. However, specific forecast procedures and flood flow levels
do not exist for all streams.
The current volume forecasts for the April through July runoff period are
below average, ranging between 60 and 80% of average.
It is important to keep in mind that an extended period of much above normal
temperatures or heavy rainfall during the melt period can cause or exacerbate
flooding problems in any year.
The spring runoff potential will be evaluated in early May and an updated
product will be issued at that time.
A list of specific spring peak flow forecasts are available at:
http://www.cbrfc.noaa.gov/rmap/peak/peaklist.php
A map of the current spring peak flow forecasts is available at:
http://www.cbrfc.noaa.gov/lmap/lmap.php?interface=peak
CBRFC/A.Nielson