SLCESGNM Mar, 2021
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FGUS65 KSTR 051532
TTAA00 KSLR DDHHMM
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
COLORADO BASIN RIVER FORECAST CENTER
SALT LAKE CITY, UT
SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL
FOR THE COLORADO RIVER BASIN WITHIN COLORADO
MARCH 5, 2021
The 2021 spring runoff flood potential due to snowmelt is not high
at this time for the San Juan River basin. Dry conditions continue
to dominate in the San Juan River basin. In addition to the dry winter, a dry summer and fall resulted in much below average soil moisture conditions. It is possible the dry soils could result in a decrease in overall runoff. However, it should be emphasized that snow typically accumulates into April; therefore conditions may change before the runoff begins.
PRECIPITATION (% OF AVERAGE) AND SNOWPACK (% OF MEDIAN):
SUBBASIN FEB PRECIP OCT-FEB PREC MAR 1 SNOWPACK
---------------------- ---------- ------------ ---------------
ABOVE NAVAJO RES 60 80 100
ANIMAS 65 65 80
Current model peak flow guidance indicates spring peak flows will be below
average at this time. However, specific forecast procedures and flood flow levels do not exist for all streams.
The current volume forecasts for the April through July runoff period are
below average, ranging between 35 and 75% of average.
It is important to keep in mind that an extended period of much above normal
temperatures or heavy rainfall during the melt period can cause or exacerbate flooding problems in any year.
A list of specific spring peak flow forecasts are available at:
A map of the current spring peak flow forecasts is available at:
The spring runoff potential will be evaluated in mid-March and an updated
product will be issued at that time.