FGUS65 KSTR 042123
ESGNM 
TTAA00 KSLR DDHHMM
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
COLORADO BASIN RIVER FORECAST CENTER
SALT LAKE CITY, UT
   

                      SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL 
             FOR THE COLORADO RIVER BASIN WITHIN COLORADO

                         MARCH 4, 2022

The 2022 spring runoff flood potential due to snowmelt is not high at this time
for the San Juan River basin. It should be emphasized that there is still time 
for significant snow accumulation in March and April,and conditions could change
before runoff begins.

Currently, the following sites are forecast to have mean daily peak flows 
at or above the listed threshold at the given exceedance level:

  Segment                     Threshold   Exceedance Value 
                                          (probability)
  -------                     --------    -------------
San Juan-Pagosa Springs        Bankfull         10
Mancos-Mancos                  Bankfull         25

PRECIPITATION (% OF AVERAGE) AND SNOWPACK (% OF MEDIAN):

SUBBASIN                 FEB PRECIP     OCT-FEB PREC    MAR 1 SNOWPACK
----------------------   ----------     ------------    ---------------
ABOVE NAVAJO RES              90             90             105
ANIMAS                        90             90              95     

The current volume forecasts for the April through July runoff period are
below average, ranging between 60 and 85% of average. 

It is important to keep in mind that an extended period of much above normal 
temperatures or heavy rainfall during the melt period can cause or exacerbate 
flooding problems in any year.

A list of specific spring peak flow forecasts is available at:
http://www.cbrfc.noaa.gov/rmap/peak/peaklist.php

A map of the current spring peak flow forecasts is available at:
http://www.cbrfc.noaa.gov/lmap/lmap.php?interface=peak

The spring runoff flood potential will be re-evaulated in mid March and 
an updated product will be issued at that time.

CBRFC/Nielson