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ESGNM 
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NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
COLORADO BASIN RIVER FORECAST CENTER
SALT LAKE CITY, UT
   

                      SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL 
             FOR THE COLORADO RIVER BASIN WITHIN COLORADO

                         APRIL 6, 2022

The 2022 spring runoff flood potential due to snowmelt is not high at this
time for the San Juan River basin. Spring peak flows are expected to be
near to much below average in the San Juan basins. It should be 
emphasized that snow can accumulate into April, and conditions could change
before runoff begins.

Currently, the following sites are forecast to have mean daily peak flows 
at or above the listed threshold at the given exceedance level:

  Segment                     Threshold   Exceedance Value 
                                          (probability)
  -------                     --------    -------------
San Juan-Pagosa Springs        Bankfull         10
Mancos-Mancos                  Bankfull         10

Keep in mind instantaneous peaks can be higher than mean daily peaks, 
especially in headwater basins.

PRECIPITATION (% OF AVERAGE) AND SNOWPACK (% OF MEDIAN):

SUBBASIN                 MAR PRECIP     OCT-MAR PREC    APR 1 SNOWPACK
----------------------   ----------     ------------    ---------------
ABOVE NAVAJO RES              75             90             105
ANIMAS                        90             90              90     

The current volume forecasts for the April through July runoff period are
below average, ranging between 55 and 75% of average. 

It is important to keep in mind that an extended period of much above normal 
temperatures or heavy rainfall during the melt period can cause or exacerbate 
flooding problems in any year.

A list of specific spring peak flow forecasts is available at:
http://www.cbrfc.noaa.gov/rmap/peak/peaklist.php

A map of the current spring peak flow forecasts is available at:
http://www.cbrfc.noaa.gov/lmap/lmap.php?interface=peak

The spring runoff flood potential will be re-evaulated in mid March and 
an updated product will be issued at that time.

CBRFC/Nielson