FGUS65 KSTR 041826
ESGNM 
TTAA00 KSLR DDHHMM
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
COLORADO BASIN RIVER FORECAST CENTER
SALT LAKE CITY UT
APRIL 4, 2003

           INTERNAL NWS PRODUCT FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY

 SAN JUAN RIVER BASIN SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK

As of April 1, 2003 the spring snowmelt runoff forecasts and flood potential 
outlooks are low for streams throughout the San Juan River Basin. The basins 
observed water year precipitation was 85% of average for March. The April 1st 
snowpack was 67% of Average. The spring runoff forecasts call for much below 
average to below average volumes (47%-66%). The median forecast from a sample 
population of 15 was 56% of average. 

Observed March streamflow was 48% of average. Monthly precipitation was 75% 
of average. The basin is again headed for a much below normal water year with
low potential for flooding if current conditions persist.

It is important to note that runoff, to a large extent, will be determined by 
hydrometeorologic events occurring in the next several months.


                 Max Mean Daily Peak Flow Forecast


       Forecast    Flood Flow   Hist. Avg.   2001 Peak  Per.of Peak   
San Juan
-Pagosa Spgs.  1150 cfs     11712 cfs    2485 cfs     221 cfs    5/15-6/12

Animas 
-Durango       2650 cfs     9664 cfs    4675 cfs      777 cfs    5/28-6/14

San Juan
-Bluff        3100 cfs    41052 cfs    7340 cfs      847 cfs    5/21-7/4


GILA RIVER BASIN SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK

The snowpack has improved but is still below median. This far south, snowpack 
is usually not the primary cause of flooding. At this time, the flood
potential is considered low. However, as soil moisture conditions change, the
potential may quickly change. This will especially be true in the 
vicinity of high intensity rainfall.

CBRFC/BMB/WBR


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