SLCESGNM
TTAA00 KSLR DDHHMM
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
COLORADO BASIN RIVER FORECAST CENTER
SALT LAKE CITY UT
APR 4, 2007

           INTERNAL NWS PRODUCT FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY

	 SAN JUAN RIVER BASIN SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK

The 2007 spring runoff flood potential is not high at this time for streams
and rivers throughout the San Juan River Basin. The observed water year
precipitation to date is 90% of average. Snow water equivalent as of
April 1 was 71% in the Upper San Juan, 58% in the Animas, and 65% for the entire
San Juan Basin.

It is important to note that the spring flood threat due to runoff will largely
be determined by hydrometeorologic events that occur during the next several months.
If current patterns persist then we will have a very low threat of spring flooding
from snow melt runoff.


Computed peak flows for three selected points are as follows:


		   2006          2007         
River/Site       Peak/Date    Fcst Peak   Normal Peak     Historic Peak
		   CFS           CFS        Period            CFS
___________      _________    _________   ___________     ____________

San Juan -       1420, 5/21      1650      5/15 - 6/12         4640
Pagosa Springs

Animas -         3140, 5/25      3100      5/28 - 6/14        10700
Durango

Animas -         3130  5/25      3200      5/31 - 6/15        11000
Farmington

San Juan -       7070, 6/9       7100*     5/21 - 7/4         15600
Bluff

* - Peak flow forecast on the San Juan below Navajo Reservoir include 
the maximum spring releases for 2007 by 28 days of ramping up to
5000 cfs, 21 days at 5000 cfs and 14 days ramping down to 500 cfs. The
release should start sometime around the end of April and decrease to 500 cfs
by around the middle of June.

CBRFC/tjc


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