FGUS65 KSTR 052049
ESGNM 
TTAA00 KSLR DDHHMM
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
COLORADO BASIN RIVER FORECAST CENTER
SALT LAKE CITY UT
FEB 5, 2008

           INTERNAL NWS PRODUCT FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY

 SAN JUAN RIVER BASIN SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK

January precipitation was 190% of average while the observed water year
precipitation to date is 125% of average. Snow water equivalent as of
February 1 was 170% in the Upper San Juan and 150% in the Animas.

The 2008 spring runoff flood potential is near to slightly above normal 
at this time for streams and rivers throughout the San Juan River Basin.
However, it is likely that many streams and rivers in the San Juan Basin
will reach bankfull during the spring runoff season this year.

It is important to note that it is early in the snow accumulation season and
that the spring flood threat due to runoff will largely be determined by 
hydrometeorologic events that occur during the next several months. Although
spring temperatures affect the pattern of snowmelt runoff and consequently
the magnitude of peak flows, peak flows also roughly correspond to volumetric
flows. Therefore, at this time, given normal temperatures and the lack of an
intense, heavy rainfall event during peak runoff, peak flows are expected to
be above normal. By the same token, an extended period of much above normal
temperatures or heavy rainfall during the melt can cause or exacerbate
flooding problems.

CBRFC/tjc


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