The snowpack as of January 1 was 165% of average, and it remained above to much above average throughout the accumulation season. The precipitation, however, dipped to below to much below average during February and March. As a consequence, runoff forecasts were lowered, particularly on April 1. With an overall April precipitation of 170% of average, forecasts were increased again on May 1.
Due to the constancy of the snowpack throughout the spring, many of the spring forecasts accurately predicted the observed flows. That is, the observed flows fell within the 90% to 10% exceedance probability ranges. The flows in the upper Gunnison were noticeably underestimated in the late spring. The underestimation probably was due to higher flows caused by 170% of average precipitation in June. The rest of the Upper Colorado received near average precipitation in June.