COLORADO BASIN RIVER FORECAST CENTER
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BORW4 Water Supply Forecasts

  Plot   Forecasts   Observations   Historical   Annual/Official Verification   Reforcast Verification   

Water Year:     2013   2014   2015   2016   2017   
2017 Runoff Forecast Apr-Jul No Precipitation Forecast Included
Smiths Fork - Border- Nr (BORW4)

Official Forecasts
  Forecast Date Max  30  MP  70 Min
1      2017-1-1 145 122 109  91  74
2      2017-2-1 173 142 134 121 108
3      2017-3-1 199 179 171 155 144
4      2017-4-1 190 176 163 155 145
5      2017-5-1 187 181 171 162 155
6      2017-6-1 177 169 166 162 154
MP=Most Probable

ESP Forecasts - 0 Days
      Run Date p10 p30   p50   p70   p90    Obs
35  2016-12-09 149 108  92.4  73.2  55.2     NA
36  2016-12-10 154 114  96.9  77.7  57.6     NA
37  2016-12-11 161 120 103.3  82.9  61.9     NA
38  2016-12-12 160 120 102.6  81.0  61.8     NA
39  2016-12-13 158 119 102.1  80.9  60.8     NA
40  2016-12-14 155 119  99.7  79.7  59.8     NA
41  2016-12-15 159 122 103.5  82.2  62.9     NA
42  2016-12-16 162 127 108.4  87.2  67.4     NA
43  2016-12-17 164 131 110.4  88.8  70.3     NA
44  2016-12-18 163 131 109.0  88.4  69.8     NA
45  2016-12-19 163 130 104.5  88.4  69.6     NA
46  2016-12-20 156 126 102.5  87.2  68.4     NA
47  2016-12-21 157 128 103.9  89.0  70.4     NA
48  2016-12-22 154 128 103.3  88.9  70.4     NA
49  2016-12-23 152 124 103.3  88.6  70.1     NA
50  2016-12-24 151 125 103.7  89.0  70.7     NA
54  2016-12-28 145 127 108.6  88.1  75.0     NA
55  2016-12-29 141 126 108.0  87.6  74.3     NA
56  2016-12-30 139 125 107.9  87.2  73.8     NA
57  2016-12-31 139 121 107.8  87.2  73.9     NA
58  2017-01-01 138 119 106.0  85.2  72.9     NA
59  2017-01-02 138 120 105.0  84.9  70.6     NA
60  2017-01-03 142 123 105.8  89.2  74.1     NA
61  2017-01-04 146 124 108.7  92.2  76.5     NA
62  2017-01-05 150 126 112.1  94.8  78.5     NA
63  2017-01-06 149 125 110.9  93.6  76.0     NA
64  2017-01-07 149 126 111.4  93.3  76.6     NA
65  2017-01-08 151 127 113.2  96.0  79.1     NA
66  2017-01-09 156 131 118.1 101.4  84.3     NA
67  2017-01-10 169 143 128.8 113.4  96.5     NA
68  2017-01-11 181 152 136.9 123.7 107.7     NA
69  2017-01-12 184 154 137.5 125.9 111.4     NA
70  2017-01-13 184 153 137.1 125.8 111.4     NA
71  2017-01-14 180 152 136.3 124.6 111.4     NA
72  2017-01-15 179 152 135.8 123.8 111.4     NA
73  2017-01-16 179 150 133.9 122.9 111.2     NA
74  2017-01-17 177 146 133.7 122.2 111.2     NA
75  2017-01-18 177 144 133.2 122.1 110.7     NA
76  2017-01-19 171 143 133.1 121.4 110.6     NA
77  2017-01-20 169 142 133.8 122.2 111.4     NA
78  2017-01-21 166 142 133.5 121.5 111.2     NA
79  2017-01-22 166 141 134.2 122.2 107.6     NA
80  2017-01-23 165 143 135.9 124.2 109.4     NA
81  2017-01-24 171 149 141.6 129.2 114.6     NA
82  2017-01-25 170 148 140.6 128.9 113.7     NA
83  2017-01-26 169 147 140.3 128.4 112.8     NA
84  2017-01-27 168 146 138.1 128.3 112.6     NA
86  2017-01-29 168 144 133.5 126.4 109.1     NA
87  2017-01-30 169 144 132.6 125.6 109.9     NA
88  2017-01-31 166 142 128.5 121.4 107.8     NA
89  2017-02-01 164 139 127.6 120.2 107.3     NA
90  2017-02-02 164 139 127.5 119.1 107.3     NA
91  2017-02-03 164 139 128.9 120.1 108.7     NA
92  2017-02-04 163 139 129.4 120.0 109.0     NA
93  2017-02-05 162 141 130.1 120.8 110.2     NA
94  2017-02-06 167 145 134.7 125.7 115.2     NA
95  2017-02-07 173 150 139.8 131.0 120.4     NA
96  2017-02-08 179 157 146.5 138.3 127.2     NA
97  2017-02-09 183 159 149.6 140.4 127.9     NA
98  2017-02-10 188 163 153.3 142.8 133.4     NA
99  2017-02-11 191 165 155.3 144.9 135.8     NA
100 2017-02-12 191 165 155.5 144.6 136.0     NA
101 2017-02-13 191 165 155.2 144.3 135.7     NA
102 2017-02-14 190 165 152.3 142.4 133.2     NA
103 2017-02-15 190 163 153.4 142.3 134.8     NA
104 2017-02-16 190 162 152.5 139.8 134.8     NA
105 2017-02-17 189 163 153.1 139.8 135.3     NA
106 2017-02-18 185 162 152.3 139.9 133.9     NA
107 2017-02-19 185 163 153.5 140.5 134.7     NA
108 2017-02-20 183 166 156.4 143.8 138.3     NA
109 2017-02-21 186 169 157.9 146.3 139.5     NA
110 2017-02-22 188 170 158.7 147.3 141.1     NA
111 2017-02-23 193 175 162.8 151.6 145.6     NA
112 2017-02-24 197 177 165.5 154.4 147.2     NA
113 2017-02-25 195 175 165.1 152.2 146.2     NA
114 2017-02-26 195 175 164.8 152.3 146.1     NA
115 2017-02-27 195 177 166.3 152.8 147.4     NA
116 2017-02-28 200 181 171.4 156.9 151.5     NA
117 2017-03-01 196 178 168.2 151.0 148.0     NA
118 2017-03-02 195 177 167.7 150.9 147.4     NA
119 2017-03-03 195 176 167.4 150.5 146.7     NA
120 2017-03-04 194 175 166.6 150.5 146.6     NA
121 2017-03-05 193 173 164.9 150.1 145.7     NA
122 2017-03-06 194 174 164.6 150.6 145.9     NA
123 2017-03-07 195 175 164.6 151.5 147.3     NA
124 2017-03-08 195 176 163.0 151.9 148.3     NA
125 2017-03-09 198 178 165.7 154.7 149.4     NA
126 2017-03-10 198 177 166.8 155.4 149.7     NA
127 2017-03-11 198 176 166.8 155.4 149.3     NA
128 2017-03-12 198 176 166.7 154.6 149.1     NA
129 2017-03-13 198 176 166.6 154.3 149.0     NA
130 2017-03-14 193 175 164.7 154.0 148.1     NA
131 2017-03-15 192 175 163.5 153.8 147.7     NA
132 2017-03-16 190 175 162.6 153.7 147.2     NA
133 2017-03-17 190 174 162.1 153.1 146.4     NA
134 2017-03-18 187 173 160.9 151.3 145.5     NA
135 2017-03-19 186 172 160.8 149.5 144.7     NA
136 2017-03-20 185 171 160.2 148.2 143.0     NA
137 2017-03-21 183 171 159.7 147.7 142.7     NA
138 2017-03-22 184 170 160.3 147.4 143.6     NA
139 2017-03-23 188 175 164.2 151.1 143.6     NA
140 2017-03-24 190 175 162.9 151.8 144.8     NA
141 2017-03-25 190 174 162.7 152.9 145.8     NA
142 2017-03-26 189 174 162.3 154.0 146.5     NA
143 2017-03-27 190 176 162.6 154.5 147.2     NA
144 2017-03-28 189 176 162.7 154.5 147.6     NA
145 2017-03-29 186 173 160.9 152.4 144.9     NA
146 2017-03-30 186 174 162.7 153.5 146.5     NA
147 2017-03-31 187 176 165.1 155.7 149.4     NA
148 2017-04-01 186 176 165.0 155.3 148.4     NA
149 2017-04-02 184 176 164.6 154.6 147.6   0.62
150 2017-04-03 183 176 164.9 154.3 147.7   1.29
151 2017-04-04 181 175 164.4 153.4 146.2   1.97
152 2017-04-05 180 174 164.5 152.5 146.1   2.60
153 2017-04-06 179 174 164.5 152.4 145.2   3.21
154 2017-04-07 179 173 163.9 152.0 143.2   3.79
155 2017-04-08 181 175 166.3 154.0 144.7   4.41
156 2017-04-09 187 179 169.8 159.0 149.7   5.08
157 2017-04-10 185 178 169.7 158.6 149.9   5.82
158 2017-04-11 182 178 169.1 158.4 149.3   6.51
159 2017-04-12 182 178 168.8 158.7 146.2   7.17
160 2017-04-13 181 177 168.0 158.4 146.2   7.81
161 2017-04-14 181 175 167.7 158.1 146.3   8.54
162 2017-04-15 181 173 167.8 157.7 145.9   9.53
163 2017-04-16 180 173 166.7 158.0 145.4  10.65
164 2017-04-17 180 173 166.1 158.2 145.1  11.68
165 2017-04-18 180 173 165.0 155.2 142.2  12.71
166 2017-04-19 182 175 167.8 156.5 144.5  13.78
167 2017-04-20 181 174 166.3 155.5 144.3  14.91
168 2017-04-21 182 175 168.1 157.1 146.6  16.14
169 2017-04-22 181 174 167.4 155.6 145.8  17.38
170 2017-04-23 182 174 167.8 157.7 148.1  18.53
171 2017-04-24 182 173 166.9 157.6 147.8  19.67
172 2017-04-25 184 177 171.0 162.0 151.3  20.82
173 2017-04-26 184 178 170.5 162.8 152.5  21.96
174 2017-04-27 188 182 173.9 165.9 157.1  23.01
175 2017-04-28 186 183 173.2 166.3 159.6  24.00
176 2017-04-29 188 185 175.1 168.2 161.9  24.93
177 2017-04-30 186 182 172.1 166.2 160.3  25.80
178 2017-05-01 188 182 172.4 168.0 162.3  26.77
179 2017-05-02 187 180 171.2 167.3 161.6  27.53
180 2017-05-03 186 179 170.8 167.0 161.6  28.30
181 2017-05-04 185 177 170.2 166.3 161.2  29.10
182 2017-05-05 184 177 169.9 165.2 160.6  29.98
183 2017-05-06 182 175 169.6 165.3 160.5  31.08
184 2017-05-07 180 175 168.1 164.4 160.7  32.51
185 2017-05-08 178 174 167.0 161.8 158.9  34.25
186 2017-05-09 180 175 167.7 162.9 159.4  36.29
187 2017-05-10 179 173 166.3 162.5 158.1  38.49
188 2017-05-11 178 171 165.4 159.5 157.1  40.79
189 2017-05-12 177 170 163.8 159.3 156.0  43.12
190 2017-05-13 177 169 164.4 159.7 155.7  45.51
191 2017-05-14 176 170 163.8 160.4 156.7  48.09
192 2017-05-15 176 169 162.3 158.6 155.8  50.80
193 2017-05-16 175 170 161.7 158.6 154.9  53.22
194 2017-05-17 178 172 164.9 161.7 158.1  55.46
195 2017-05-18 176 171 164.2 161.0 157.5  57.58
196 2017-05-19 180 174 168.3 164.6 160.9  59.53
197 2017-05-20 180 172 167.2 163.8 159.5  61.29
198 2017-05-21 179 170 166.7 163.2 159.1  62.89
199 2017-05-22 179 169 165.9 162.1 159.0  64.38
200 2017-05-23 177 169 165.7 161.5 158.6  65.81
201 2017-05-24 175 168 165.4 161.4 158.5  67.26
202 2017-05-25 177 169 166.2 162.6 159.5  68.81
203 2017-05-26 178 171 166.6 164.1 161.0  70.64
204 2017-05-27 176 172 166.9 164.9 161.8  72.70
205 2017-05-28 176 172 165.8 164.9 162.1  74.73
206 2017-05-29 174 171 165.3 163.7 161.7  76.65
207 2017-05-30 173 170 164.9 163.5 161.5  78.56
209 2017-06-01 179 174 170.7 169.2 167.7  87.93
210 2017-06-02 180 174 171.0 169.5 168.2  90.19
211 2017-06-03 179 173 170.7 169.1 168.4  92.54
212 2017-06-04 177 173 170.9 169.3 168.5  95.25
213 2017-06-05 175 172 171.3 169.8 168.5  98.07
214 2017-06-06 176 173 171.5 170.2 168.9 100.91
215 2017-06-07 176 173 171.1 170.4 169.3 103.80
216 2017-06-08 176 172 170.8 169.8 169.3 106.76
217 2017-06-09 175 172 170.7 169.9 169.1 109.66
219 2017-06-11 174 173 171.8 171.0 169.9 115.37
220 2017-06-12 174 173 171.9 171.0 170.4 118.06
221 2017-06-13 177 175 174.9 174.3 173.4 120.50
222 2017-06-14 177 175 175.0 174.4 174.0 122.83
223 2017-06-15 178 175 174.8 174.4 173.9 125.03
224 2017-06-16 176 175 174.0 173.6 173.1 127.01
225 2017-06-17 177 175 175.0 174.5 173.9 128.85
226 2017-06-18 176 175 174.2 174.0 173.4 130.67
227 2017-06-19 176 175 174.1 173.6 173.4 132.62
228 2017-06-20 176 175 174.1 173.7 173.5 134.58
229 2017-06-21 176 175 174.2 173.8 173.6 136.49
230 2017-06-22 176 175 174.3 173.8 173.7 138.39
231 2017-06-23 176 174 174.0 173.8 173.7 140.33
232 2017-06-24 175 174 174.2 174.0 173.9 142.23
233 2017-06-25 175 174 174.2 174.1 174.0 143.99
234 2017-06-26 175 174 174.3 174.2 174.2 145.64
235 2017-06-27 175 174 174.4 174.3 174.3 147.20
236 2017-06-28 175 175 174.6 174.5 174.4 148.69
237 2017-06-29 175 175 174.7 174.7 174.6 150.15
238 2017-06-30 175 175 174.9 174.9 174.8 151.56
239 2017-07-01 175 175 174.9 174.8 174.8 152.56
240 2017-07-02 175 175 175.0 174.9 174.9 153.81
241 2017-07-03 175 175 175.1 175.1 175.0 155.00
242 2017-07-04 175 175 175.3 175.2 175.1 156.16
243 2017-07-05 175 175 175.4 175.3 175.3 157.27
244 2017-07-06 176 176 175.5 175.4 175.4 158.36
245 2017-07-07 176 176 175.6 175.6 175.5 159.42
246 2017-07-08 176 176 175.7 175.7 175.6 160.43
247 2017-07-09 176 176 175.8 175.8 175.7 161.41
248 2017-07-10 176 176 175.9 175.9 175.8 162.35
249 2017-07-11 176 176 176.0 175.9 175.9 163.26
250 2017-07-12 176 176 176.1 176.0 176.0 164.15
251 2017-07-13 176 176 176.1 176.1 176.1 165.00
252 2017-07-14 176 176 176.2 176.2 176.2 165.82
253 2017-07-15 176 176 176.3 176.3 176.3 166.62
254 2017-07-16 176 176 176.4 176.3 176.3 167.40
255 2017-07-17 177 176 176.4 176.4 176.4 168.15
256 2017-07-18 177 176 176.5 176.5 176.4 168.87
257 2017-07-19 177 177 176.5 176.5 176.5 169.58
258 2017-07-20 177 177 176.6 176.6 176.6 170.25
259 2017-07-21 177 177 176.6 176.6 176.6 170.90
260 2017-07-22 177 177 176.6 176.6 176.6 171.54
261 2017-07-23 177 177 176.7 176.7 176.7 172.15
262 2017-07-24 177 177 176.7 176.7 176.7 172.74
263 2017-07-25 177 177 176.7 176.7 176.7 173.32
264 2017-07-26 177 177 176.8 176.8 176.8 173.90
265 2017-07-27 177 177 176.8 176.8 176.8 174.46
266 2017-07-28 177 177 176.8 176.8 176.8 175.01
267 2017-07-29 177 177 176.9 176.9 176.9 175.55
268 2017-07-30 177 177 177.0 177.0 177.0 176.08
269 2017-07-31 177 177 177.0 177.0 177.0 176.60
p10=10% exceedance, etc., Obs=Included Observed

Maximum of 180.8 in 1986, Minimum of 20.3 in 1977, Average/Median for 1981-2010 is 89/80.
ESP forecasts in the Observed Period w/o observed values are not total runoff.