COLORADO BASIN RIVER FORECAST CENTER
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HRMU1 Water Supply Forecasts

  Plot   Forecasts   Observations   Historical   Annual/Official Verification   Reforcast Verification   

Water Year:     2013   2014   2015   2016   2017   
2017 Runoff Forecast Apr-Jul No Precipitation Forecast Included
Blacksmith Fork - Hyrum- Nr- Upnl Dam- Abv (HRMU1)

Official Forecasts
  Forecast Date Max  30  MP  70 Min
1      2017-1-1  76  60  49  40  28
2      2017-2-1 112  95  83  73  65
3      2017-3-1 130 118 110 102  85
4      2017-4-1 120 110 100  94  85
5      2017-5-1 111 104 100  95  89
6      2017-6-1  95  91  86  83  78
MP=Most Probable

ESP Forecasts - 0 Days
      Run Date   p10   p30   p50   p70   p90   Obs
35  2016-12-09  61.5  53.0  33.3  24.2  17.9    NA
36  2016-12-10  64.1  55.8  35.7  25.4  18.5    NA
37  2016-12-11  72.3  63.4  42.8  31.7  20.8    NA
38  2016-12-12  70.6  63.7  42.7  30.7  20.7    NA
39  2016-12-13  66.0  63.2  42.0  29.7  20.6    NA
40  2016-12-14  65.7  60.0  40.9  29.3  19.9    NA
41  2016-12-15  68.2  62.0  41.9  30.9  20.3    NA
42  2016-12-16  72.9  66.0  46.0  33.8  21.3    NA
43  2016-12-17  78.3  71.1  50.2  36.5  24.8    NA
44  2016-12-18  78.2  71.1  49.8  36.4  24.7    NA
45  2016-12-19  78.2  69.8  49.3  36.3  24.7    NA
46  2016-12-20  77.9  69.0  48.1  35.7  24.4    NA
47  2016-12-21  78.0  67.6  48.1  35.2  24.4    NA
48  2016-12-22  78.0  64.0  47.4  34.9  24.2    NA
49  2016-12-23  77.5  62.3  46.6  34.4  24.2    NA
50  2016-12-24  77.7  60.9  46.5  34.4  24.3    NA
54  2016-12-28  80.3  61.4  45.7  35.0  26.0    NA
55  2016-12-29  80.2  61.2  45.5  34.0  26.0    NA
56  2016-12-30  77.5  60.8  45.4  33.2  26.0    NA
57  2016-12-31  75.9  57.6  45.2  33.2  26.0    NA
58  2017-01-01  75.7  56.5  44.8  32.9  25.9    NA
59  2017-01-02  77.7  58.5  46.3  34.6  25.9    NA
60  2017-01-03  77.7  60.0  48.2  36.3  26.9    NA
61  2017-01-04  78.4  59.7  47.8  37.0  27.5    NA
62  2017-01-05  87.1  67.1  56.4  44.9  33.6    NA
63  2017-01-06  87.3  67.7  56.2  45.6  32.8    NA
64  2017-01-07  86.3  67.2  55.2  45.3  32.4    NA
65  2017-01-08  86.4  68.4  55.9  46.6  33.1    NA
66  2017-01-09  91.7  74.3  60.4  52.9  38.4    NA
67  2017-01-10  98.8  80.8  65.9  58.9  44.8    NA
68  2017-01-11 110.4  87.7  74.5  68.5  55.2    NA
69  2017-01-12 115.9  93.2  81.7  76.7  61.7    NA
70  2017-01-13 114.0  92.4  81.3  76.8  61.7    NA
71  2017-01-14 112.0  92.3  81.3  76.8  61.8    NA
72  2017-01-15 111.6  92.3  81.1  76.6  61.1    NA
73  2017-01-16 107.7  92.0  81.1  76.7  60.8    NA
74  2017-01-17 107.3  91.9  80.6  76.7  60.8    NA
75  2017-01-18 107.4  91.6  80.2  76.8  60.8    NA
76  2017-01-19 107.0  91.6  79.8  76.6  60.6    NA
77  2017-01-20 107.6  88.8  80.4  77.3  61.2    NA
78  2017-01-21 105.8  88.2  79.9  77.3  61.2    NA
79  2017-01-22 107.9  89.7  80.6  76.8  62.4    NA
80  2017-01-23 112.7  93.9  83.8  79.5  65.9    NA
81  2017-01-24 117.4  98.2  88.1  82.8  69.9    NA
82  2017-01-25 116.1  96.5  86.9  81.7  69.2    NA
83  2017-01-26 114.7  95.0  85.4  77.0  68.1    NA
84  2017-01-27 112.8  94.8  84.9  75.6  67.8    NA
86  2017-01-29 113.0  94.5  84.4  73.4  66.4    NA
87  2017-01-30 112.7  94.2  83.6  73.0  64.7    NA
88  2017-01-31 112.9  95.1  83.5  73.3  64.7    NA
89  2017-02-01 109.6  93.6  82.5  71.4  63.5    NA
90  2017-02-02 109.5  93.1  81.1  71.2  63.6    NA
91  2017-02-03 109.6  93.1  80.1  71.5  64.1    NA
92  2017-02-04 110.9  94.4  81.1  71.4  64.4    NA
93  2017-02-05 110.1  94.0  80.6  70.8  64.2    NA
94  2017-02-06 110.6  94.7  81.2  71.3  64.8    NA
95  2017-02-07 118.3 101.4  88.1  77.5  71.5    NA
96  2017-02-08 115.8 101.1  90.4  79.6  72.8    NA
97  2017-02-09 118.1 103.6  93.0  83.6  76.3    NA
98  2017-02-10 119.6 104.2  94.0  84.6  76.9    NA
99  2017-02-11 123.4 108.9  98.5  88.8  81.1    NA
100 2017-02-12 123.6 109.2  98.5  89.4  82.4    NA
101 2017-02-13 124.0 109.6  96.6  89.5  82.2    NA
102 2017-02-14 123.0 109.2  95.9  89.4  80.1    NA
103 2017-02-15 122.0 105.6  95.9  88.6  79.0    NA
104 2017-02-16 119.9 105.4  96.1  88.1  78.8    NA
105 2017-02-17 121.0 106.1  96.7  87.2  78.9    NA
106 2017-02-18 119.5 105.4  96.7  86.6  79.1    NA
107 2017-02-19 121.6 107.2  98.9  89.0  80.1    NA
108 2017-02-20 121.4 109.2 101.5  92.0  82.4    NA
109 2017-02-21 123.0 108.6 101.2  92.8  83.9    NA
110 2017-02-22 125.9 112.7 104.6  95.8  87.3    NA
111 2017-02-23 132.0 118.3 109.1 101.2  93.0    NA
112 2017-02-24 132.9 118.5 109.4 101.7  93.0    NA
113 2017-02-25 133.4 117.5 109.2 101.9  92.3    NA
114 2017-02-26 133.4 117.3 108.8 101.7  90.9    NA
115 2017-02-27 135.5 118.3 110.1 103.1  91.9    NA
116 2017-02-28 137.8 119.9 112.2 104.8  92.5    NA
117 2017-03-01 136.4 120.3 112.9 105.5  91.5    NA
118 2017-03-02 134.1 119.1 111.5 103.8  90.3    NA
119 2017-03-03 129.7 118.7 110.1 102.2  90.1    NA
120 2017-03-04 128.7 117.1 110.2 101.1  89.8    NA
121 2017-03-05 126.7 113.9 108.2  98.5  88.1    NA
122 2017-03-06 127.6 114.7 107.8  99.4  89.0    NA
123 2017-03-07 135.5 121.5 113.8 105.2  93.6    NA
124 2017-03-08 134.3 121.3 112.2 103.6  93.4    NA
125 2017-03-09 130.6 119.1 109.5 100.8  92.2    NA
126 2017-03-10 128.5 117.2 107.9 100.1  92.0    NA
127 2017-03-11 127.7 116.5 106.7  98.7  91.5    NA
128 2017-03-12 124.2 114.9 106.2  98.0  91.5    NA
129 2017-03-13 124.5 115.2 105.5  98.2  91.8    NA
130 2017-03-14 123.9 114.4 104.0  97.3  91.4    NA
131 2017-03-15 121.8 112.9 102.9  95.7  90.7    NA
132 2017-03-16 120.3 112.3 101.9  94.7  89.4    NA
133 2017-03-17 119.3 110.6 100.5  92.9  88.8    NA
134 2017-03-18 118.7 110.4  98.4  92.1  88.7    NA
135 2017-03-19 117.6 109.6  97.2  91.6  88.6    NA
136 2017-03-20 116.5 108.8  96.0  91.0  88.2    NA
137 2017-03-21 115.3 107.9  95.6  91.0  87.1    NA
138 2017-03-22 116.9 106.7  96.7  91.1  87.6    NA
139 2017-03-23 119.2 109.7  99.4  94.7  91.2    NA
140 2017-03-24 123.0 113.2 102.7  98.5  95.0    NA
141 2017-03-25 122.8 112.9 102.8  98.0  94.9    NA
142 2017-03-26 124.8 113.0 103.5 100.1  96.5    NA
143 2017-03-27 124.5 110.8 101.4  99.3  96.4    NA
144 2017-03-28 126.8 112.4 102.8 100.2  98.0    NA
145 2017-03-29 127.1 110.2 101.7 100.2  96.7    NA
146 2017-03-30 127.1 109.7 101.0  98.5  95.5    NA
147 2017-03-31 130.3 113.4 105.0 102.8  99.0    NA
148 2017-04-01 133.5 116.5 108.1 106.0 102.3    NA
149 2017-04-02 128.5 115.5 107.9 105.3 101.8  0.96
150 2017-04-03 126.4 116.7 108.9 105.4 102.0  1.90
151 2017-04-04 114.2 106.3  98.0  94.9  90.0  2.87
152 2017-04-05 114.2 105.8  95.9  94.7  90.1  3.78
153 2017-04-06 113.9 104.4  95.7  94.3  90.0  4.60
154 2017-04-07 113.9 103.8  95.7  93.1  89.7  5.38
155 2017-04-08 117.9 106.8  98.6  96.1  91.6  6.17
156 2017-04-09 122.6 109.3 101.9  99.1  95.4  7.13
157 2017-04-10 124.1 109.9 103.6 100.2  96.9  8.39
158 2017-04-11 117.8 105.6 100.4  97.6  92.8  9.44
159 2017-04-12 115.3 105.3 100.0  95.7  92.8 10.35
160 2017-04-13 115.1 104.7 100.1  95.8  92.0 11.23
161 2017-04-14 114.5 104.6 100.0  95.5  91.8 12.18
162 2017-04-15 113.9 104.7  99.0  94.8  91.6 13.35
163 2017-04-16 112.5 104.5  98.5  94.1  91.5 14.59
164 2017-04-17 112.2 104.1  98.2  94.3  91.5 15.68
165 2017-04-18 112.1 103.6  97.8  93.9  90.9 16.76
166 2017-04-19 115.8 107.7  99.4  95.5  92.9 17.97
167 2017-04-20 114.6 107.1  98.6  95.2  92.3 19.34
168 2017-04-21 115.8 107.5  99.3  95.5  92.7 20.77
169 2017-04-22 116.3 107.3  99.1  95.8  93.0 21.99
170 2017-04-23 115.9 106.3  98.6  95.7  93.0 23.07
171 2017-04-24 115.2 104.6  97.8  95.3  93.0 24.09
172 2017-04-25 114.4 106.3  99.5  96.3  94.4 25.13
173 2017-04-26 112.5 105.7  99.2  96.3  94.4 26.24
174 2017-04-27 113.5 107.0 100.2  97.5  95.5 27.23
175 2017-04-28 114.1 106.9 100.6  97.9  95.8 28.17
176 2017-04-29 117.8 108.9 102.9 101.0  98.3 29.11
177 2017-04-30 116.8 109.0 102.9 100.7  98.9 29.96
178 2017-05-01 114.9 107.9 102.6 100.1  98.2 30.66
179 2017-05-02 113.2 108.3 102.1  99.4  97.9 31.41
180 2017-05-03 110.7 106.3 101.6  98.9  97.2 32.15
181 2017-05-04 110.5 105.4 100.1  99.0  97.4 32.94
183 2017-05-06 102.8  96.8  93.8  92.2  90.2 34.63
184 2017-05-07 102.0  96.4  93.6  91.5  90.3 35.63
185 2017-05-08 100.9  94.7  92.2  90.9  89.7 36.75
186 2017-05-09 100.7  94.5  91.7  90.2  89.4 37.90
187 2017-05-10  99.8  93.4  91.0  89.5  88.6 39.04
188 2017-05-11  97.9  92.2  90.2  89.1  88.3 40.13
189 2017-05-12  95.1  91.2  89.2  88.3  87.0 41.22
190 2017-05-13  94.4  90.4  88.7  88.2  86.8 42.29
191 2017-05-14  94.1  89.0  87.7  86.9  85.7 43.37
192 2017-05-15  94.0  88.4  87.5  86.7  85.7 44.45
193 2017-05-16  92.1  88.3  87.5  86.6  85.9 45.41
194 2017-05-17  94.9  90.6  89.5  89.0  87.8 46.29
195 2017-05-18  96.4  91.6  90.1  89.2  88.3 47.16
196 2017-05-19  94.2  90.4  89.3  89.0  88.2 48.05
197 2017-05-20  94.2  90.6  89.3  88.7  88.1 48.84
198 2017-05-21  93.7  90.0  89.1  88.6  87.9 49.57
199 2017-05-22  93.1  89.9  89.1  88.3  87.7 50.26
200 2017-05-23  92.1  89.6  89.0  88.2  87.6 50.92
201 2017-05-24  91.0  88.5  88.2  87.4  86.8 51.57
202 2017-05-25  90.5  88.3  87.9  87.3  86.8 52.22
203 2017-05-26  90.2  88.1  87.6  87.1  86.7 52.92
204 2017-05-27  90.2  88.1  87.5  87.0  86.5 53.68
205 2017-05-28  89.9  87.9  87.3  86.9  86.5 54.41
206 2017-05-29  89.9  87.7  87.2  86.7  86.5 55.10
207 2017-05-30  89.7  87.7  86.9  86.6  86.4 55.76
209 2017-06-01  88.8  87.1  86.7  86.4  86.3 57.06
210 2017-06-02  88.8  87.0  86.6  86.4  86.3 57.72
211 2017-06-03  87.6  86.8  86.2  86.1  86.1 58.37
212 2017-06-04  87.4  86.6  86.2  86.0  86.0 59.00
213 2017-06-05  87.0  86.5  86.1  86.0  86.0 59.63
214 2017-06-06  86.8  86.3  86.0  86.0  86.0 60.23
215 2017-06-07  86.7  86.0  85.9  85.9  85.9 60.83
216 2017-06-08  86.0  86.0  85.9  85.9  85.9 61.41
217 2017-06-09  86.0  85.9  85.9  85.9  85.9 61.98
219 2017-06-11  85.5  85.5  85.5  85.5  85.5 63.06
220 2017-06-12  85.5  85.4  85.4  85.4  85.4 63.57
221 2017-06-13  85.5  85.4  85.4  85.4  85.4 64.07
222 2017-06-14  85.6  85.5  85.5  85.5  85.5 64.58
223 2017-06-15  85.6  85.5  85.5  85.5  85.5 65.11
224 2017-06-16  85.5  85.5  85.5  85.5  85.5 65.59
225 2017-06-17  85.4  85.4  85.4  85.4  85.4 66.06
226 2017-06-18  85.3  85.3  85.3  85.3  85.3 66.51
227 2017-06-19  84.7  84.6  84.6  84.6  84.6 66.96
228 2017-06-20  84.6  84.6  84.6  84.6  84.6 67.41
229 2017-06-21  84.6  84.6  84.6  84.6  84.6 67.85
230 2017-06-22  84.6  84.5  84.5  84.5  84.5 68.28
231 2017-06-23  84.5  84.5  84.5  84.5  84.5 68.70
232 2017-06-24  84.5  84.5  84.5  84.5  84.5 69.12
233 2017-06-25  84.5  84.5  84.5  84.5  84.5 69.54
234 2017-06-26  84.5  84.4  84.4  84.4  84.4 69.95
235 2017-06-27  84.4  84.4  84.4  84.4  84.4 70.35
236 2017-06-28  84.4  84.3  84.3  84.3  84.3 70.76
237 2017-06-29  84.3  84.3  84.3  84.3  84.3 71.16
238 2017-06-30  84.3  84.3  84.3  84.3  84.3 71.56
239 2017-07-01  84.6  84.6  84.6  84.6  84.6 72.28
240 2017-07-02  84.6  84.5  84.5  84.5  84.5 72.67
241 2017-07-03  84.5  84.5  84.5  84.5  84.5 73.05
242 2017-07-04  84.5  84.5  84.5  84.5  84.5 73.44
243 2017-07-05  84.5  84.4  84.4  84.4  84.4 73.82
244 2017-07-06  84.4  84.4  84.4  84.4  84.4 74.19
245 2017-07-07  84.4  84.3  84.3  84.3  84.3 74.57
246 2017-07-08  84.0  84.0  84.0  84.0  84.0 74.94
247 2017-07-09  83.7  83.7  83.7  83.7  83.7 75.30
248 2017-07-10  83.7  83.7  83.7  83.7  83.7 75.67
249 2017-07-11  83.7  83.7  83.7  83.7  83.7 76.03
250 2017-07-12  83.7  83.7  83.7  83.7  83.7 76.40
251 2017-07-13  83.7  83.6  83.6  83.6  83.6 76.76
252 2017-07-14  83.7  83.6  83.6  83.6  83.6 77.11
253 2017-07-15  83.6  83.6  83.6  83.6  83.6 77.47
254 2017-07-16  83.6  83.6  83.6  83.6  83.6 77.82
255 2017-07-17  83.6  83.6  83.6  83.6  83.6 78.17
256 2017-07-18  83.6  83.6  83.6  83.6  83.6 78.52
257 2017-07-19  83.6  83.6  83.6  83.6  83.6 78.88
258 2017-07-20  83.6  83.5  83.5  83.5  83.5 79.23
259 2017-07-21  83.6  83.5  83.5  83.5  83.5 79.57
260 2017-07-22  83.5  83.5  83.5  83.5  83.5 79.92
261 2017-07-23  83.5  83.5  83.5  83.5  83.5 80.26
262 2017-07-24  83.5  83.5  83.5  83.5  83.5 80.60
263 2017-07-25  83.5  83.5  83.5  83.5  83.5 80.96
264 2017-07-26  83.5  83.5  83.5  83.5  83.5 81.35
265 2017-07-27  83.5  83.5  83.5  83.5  83.5 81.74
266 2017-07-28  83.6  83.6  83.6  83.6  83.6 82.13
267 2017-07-29  83.6  83.6  83.6  83.6  83.6 82.51
268 2017-07-30  83.6  83.6  83.6  83.6  83.6 82.90
269 2017-07-31  83.6  83.6  83.6  83.6  83.6 83.27
p10=10% exceedance, etc., Obs=Included Observed

Maximum of 130.3 in 1984, Minimum of 13.2 in 1934, Average/Median for 1981-2010 is 43/29.
ESP forecasts in the Observed Period w/o observed values are not total runoff.