COLORADO BASIN RIVER FORECAST CENTER
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HRMU1 Water Supply Forecasts

  Plot   Forecasts   Observations   Historical   Annual/Official Verification   Reforcast Verification   

Water Year:     2013   2014   2015   2016   2017   
2017 Runoff Forecast Apr-Jul Includes 5 Day Precipitation Forecast
Blacksmith Fork - Hyrum- Nr- Upnl Dam- Abv (HRMU1)

Official Forecasts
  Forecast Date Max  30  MP  70 Min
1      2017-1-1  76  60  49  40  28
2      2017-2-1 112  95  83  73  65
3      2017-3-1 130 118 110 102  85
4      2017-4-1 120 110 100  94  85
5      2017-5-1 111 104 100  95  89
6      2017-6-1  95  91  86  83  78
MP=Most Probable

ESP Forecasts - 5 Days
      Run Date   p10   p30   p50   p70   p90   Obs
35  2016-12-09  69.7  63.8  45.3  32.0  21.6    NA
36  2016-12-10  65.9  59.5  40.5  28.9  19.7    NA
37  2016-12-11  73.2  66.7  46.2  34.4  22.0    NA
38  2016-12-12  72.8  65.6  45.7  32.4  21.3    NA
39  2016-12-13  76.1  69.6  48.5  35.1  23.3    NA
40  2016-12-14  74.8  67.7  46.7  33.3  22.2    NA
41  2016-12-15  77.4  68.8  48.5  35.9  24.3    NA
42  2016-12-16  78.2  69.0  48.7  35.6  24.7    NA
43  2016-12-17  79.7  65.3  49.2  36.7  25.7    NA
44  2016-12-18  80.8  64.6  49.3  37.5  26.2    NA
45  2016-12-19  79.8  62.1  48.6  37.0  25.8    NA
46  2016-12-20  80.9  63.0  48.6  37.8  26.3    NA
47  2016-12-21  81.7  63.4  48.2  38.5  27.2    NA
48  2016-12-22  83.7  64.6  49.4  38.6  28.6    NA
49  2016-12-23  82.4  63.4  48.5  37.1  27.7    NA
50  2016-12-24  83.1  64.2  48.7  37.0  28.4    NA
54  2016-12-28  76.3  57.0  45.4  33.4  25.9    NA
55  2016-12-29  77.2  58.1  46.1  34.4  25.1    NA
56  2016-12-30  74.2  56.5  44.4  33.8  24.7    NA
57  2016-12-31  76.1  56.3  46.0  35.3  25.2    NA
58  2017-01-01  75.4  56.7  46.6  35.7  23.6    NA
59  2017-01-02  80.7  62.6  51.0  41.0  28.3    NA
60  2017-01-03  80.4  63.8  51.8  42.4  29.3    NA
61  2017-01-04  84.2  66.9  53.7  45.7  32.2    NA
62  2017-01-05  92.4  75.7  60.6  54.1  40.2    NA
63  2017-01-06  96.6  75.8  63.6  57.3  43.6    NA
64  2017-01-07  98.1  78.4  66.6  61.1  47.0    NA
65  2017-01-08 100.4  78.5  68.7  63.6  49.4    NA
66  2017-01-09  98.7  78.4  69.4  63.9  49.7    NA
67  2017-01-10 105.7  86.3  76.3  71.4  56.9    NA
68  2017-01-11 105.3  89.0  79.1  74.4  59.1    NA
69  2017-01-12 107.7  91.4  80.8  76.6  61.1    NA
70  2017-01-13 106.7  91.1  80.1  76.3  60.9    NA
71  2017-01-14 106.5  91.6  80.2  76.6  60.9    NA
72  2017-01-15 108.4  90.8  81.5  77.7  62.2    NA
73  2017-01-16 106.6  89.1  80.8  77.9  62.1    NA
74  2017-01-17 109.3  91.6  82.3  78.5  63.9    NA
75  2017-01-18 109.0  91.1  81.8  77.0  63.5    NA
76  2017-01-19 116.0  97.6  87.2  82.3  69.2    NA
77  2017-01-20 112.1  94.0  84.1  79.0  66.4    NA
78  2017-01-21 117.2  98.5  88.2  81.2  70.0    NA
79  2017-01-22 116.4  98.2  87.9  78.6  69.7    NA
80  2017-01-23 117.5  99.6  89.9  80.0  71.2    NA
81  2017-01-24 116.5  98.5  88.2  77.5  70.6    NA
82  2017-01-25 114.3  96.4  85.9  74.7  66.8    NA
83  2017-01-26 112.3  94.3  82.9  72.6  65.1    NA
84  2017-01-27 109.5  93.9  82.0  71.5  63.8    NA
86  2017-01-29 110.1  93.8  79.6  71.6  64.0    NA
87  2017-01-30 111.7  95.2  81.0  71.5  64.1    NA
88  2017-01-31 114.5  97.5  83.3  73.5  66.4    NA
89  2017-02-01 112.0  95.1  80.6  71.5  64.3    NA
90  2017-02-02 113.7  96.7  82.5  73.1  66.0    NA
91  2017-02-03 114.8  99.7  87.3  77.2  70.8    NA
92  2017-02-04 110.8  95.8  85.5  75.6  69.0    NA
93  2017-02-05 110.6  95.6  85.5  76.3  69.9    NA
94  2017-02-06 117.9 104.3  93.8  84.0  77.9    NA
95  2017-02-07 123.6 110.0  99.5  88.8  83.0    NA
96  2017-02-08 120.7 106.9  94.8  86.8  80.3    NA
97  2017-02-09 119.9 106.7  94.8  87.3  80.3    NA
98  2017-02-10 118.1 103.5  94.7  87.4  77.3    NA
99  2017-02-11 118.6 103.5  95.0  87.1  78.1    NA
100 2017-02-12 118.1 104.2  95.7  87.2  78.2    NA
101 2017-02-13 119.8 105.5  97.2  87.3  79.6    NA
102 2017-02-14 117.1 104.2  96.1  86.4  78.0    NA
103 2017-02-15 116.6 105.0  97.4  88.1  79.2    NA
104 2017-02-16 118.1 105.1  97.9  89.4  80.7    NA
105 2017-02-17 120.6 107.3 100.0  91.5  82.7    NA
106 2017-02-18 123.5 110.2 102.7  94.0  85.6    NA
107 2017-02-19 125.6 113.0 105.0  97.0  87.8    NA
108 2017-02-20 127.7 113.7 106.0  99.0  88.5    NA
109 2017-02-21 126.5 111.5 103.7  96.9  86.0    NA
110 2017-02-22 131.3 115.6 106.4 100.3  89.0    NA
111 2017-02-23 137.8 120.6 111.3 104.7  91.7    NA
112 2017-02-24 135.4 119.1 110.0 103.2  89.9    NA
113 2017-02-25 132.0 117.5 108.5 101.7  88.0    NA
114 2017-02-26 128.1 118.3 108.5 101.8  88.8    NA
115 2017-02-27 129.6 118.7 109.7 101.6  90.3    NA
116 2017-02-28 129.5 118.4 110.4 101.7  90.5    NA
117 2017-03-01 130.6 118.0 110.8 102.2  90.3    NA
118 2017-03-02 133.7 121.0 113.3 104.7  92.3    NA
119 2017-03-03 132.6 119.7 111.4 103.6  91.7    NA
120 2017-03-04 131.7 119.5 112.0 104.3  91.8    NA
121 2017-03-05 127.6 117.3 109.9 102.1  91.1    NA
122 2017-03-06 127.8 117.7 109.2 100.8  91.7    NA
123 2017-03-07 130.2 120.5 112.7 103.6  93.6    NA
124 2017-03-08 128.0 119.4 110.8 102.2  92.9    NA
125 2017-03-09 125.9 115.8 107.2  98.6  91.2    NA
126 2017-03-10 125.4 114.4 105.1  97.3  91.2    NA
127 2017-03-11 124.1 113.6 103.2  96.0  91.0    NA
128 2017-03-12 123.8 113.4 102.0  95.2  89.7    NA
129 2017-03-13 123.7 113.5 101.5  95.4  90.2    NA
130 2017-03-14 122.5 112.4 100.5  95.3  90.1    NA
131 2017-03-15 121.2 111.9  99.4  94.7  89.8    NA
132 2017-03-16 119.3 112.0  99.2  94.1  88.6    NA
133 2017-03-17 118.2 109.6  98.2  92.3  87.8    NA
134 2017-03-18 118.2 109.2  97.9  93.0  88.6    NA
135 2017-03-19 117.8 108.6  97.6  93.5  89.4    NA
136 2017-03-20 117.7 107.9  97.9  93.3  89.5    NA
137 2017-03-21 119.3 107.1  99.4  94.7  90.9    NA
138 2017-03-22 123.0 109.5  99.7  98.0  94.3    NA
139 2017-03-23 124.1 109.4 100.3  97.9  95.7    NA
140 2017-03-24 128.4 112.1 104.3 101.9  99.2    NA
141 2017-03-25 127.9 111.0 102.6 100.2  97.5    NA
142 2017-03-26 132.3 114.9 106.4 104.0 100.1    NA
143 2017-03-27 132.3 116.4 107.7 105.1 101.4    NA
144 2017-03-28 130.7 115.2 106.5 103.4 100.2    NA
145 2017-03-29 125.4 114.4 106.5 103.4  99.3    NA
146 2017-03-30 126.3 115.5 107.3 104.0  98.3    NA
147 2017-03-31 124.7 113.0 103.6 102.6  97.1    NA
148 2017-04-01 126.7 114.6 105.9 104.7  99.7    NA
149 2017-04-02 126.5 115.0 105.8 103.6  99.4  0.96
150 2017-04-03 127.6 115.7 106.8 103.8 100.3  1.90
151 2017-04-04 117.9 107.1  98.5  95.4  91.1  2.87
152 2017-04-05 126.9 113.3 106.2 103.3  99.0  3.78
153 2017-04-06 123.4 110.7 104.9 101.5  97.1  4.60
154 2017-04-07 119.0 109.3 103.8 100.3  95.6  5.38
155 2017-04-08 117.8 107.8 102.9  98.2  94.6  6.17
156 2017-04-09 115.4 105.5 101.0  96.5  92.5  7.13
157 2017-04-10 117.7 107.6 102.8  97.3  94.3  8.39
158 2017-04-11 113.7 104.4  98.6  94.2  91.2  9.44
159 2017-04-12 114.1 104.9  98.3  94.6  91.7 10.35
160 2017-04-13 115.0 105.4  98.2  95.0  92.0 11.23
161 2017-04-14 115.7 106.1  97.9  94.9  92.0 12.18
162 2017-04-15 114.8 106.3  98.7  95.3  92.6 13.35
163 2017-04-16 115.0 106.9  99.7  95.9  92.8 14.59
164 2017-04-17 113.9 106.0  98.6  96.1  93.0 15.68
165 2017-04-18 113.3 104.1  97.7  95.7  92.2 16.76
166 2017-04-19 114.3 104.5  97.8  96.1  93.1 17.97
167 2017-04-20 115.4 105.5  98.8  96.3  94.2 19.34
168 2017-04-21 111.3 104.5  98.0  95.7  93.7 20.77
169 2017-04-22 114.4 107.5 100.8  98.3  96.7 21.99
170 2017-04-23 115.4 108.1 101.5  98.6  97.4 23.07
171 2017-04-24 117.3 107.7 102.4 100.2  98.3 24.09
172 2017-04-25 113.7 104.6  99.5  98.0  96.5 25.13
173 2017-04-26 113.2 105.1  99.6  98.3  96.8 26.24
174 2017-04-27 110.1 104.0  98.5  96.6  95.3 27.23
175 2017-04-28 110.4 104.8  99.2  97.5  96.0 28.17
176 2017-04-29 111.1 104.3  99.9  98.6  97.0 29.11
177 2017-04-30 110.9 104.3 100.1  98.6  97.2 29.96
178 2017-05-01 108.6 103.5  99.6  98.3  96.8 30.66
179 2017-05-02 108.2 102.7  99.6  98.3  96.7 31.41
180 2017-05-03 107.7 101.6  98.9  97.5  96.4 32.15
181 2017-05-04 108.2 102.3  99.4  97.6  96.8 32.94
183 2017-05-06 101.7  96.2  94.1  92.5  91.6 34.63
184 2017-05-07  99.2  94.4  92.3  91.5  90.7 35.63
185 2017-05-08  97.5  93.6  91.4  90.8  90.0 36.75
186 2017-05-09  95.3  91.6  89.8  89.4  88.5 37.90
187 2017-05-10  94.7  91.0  89.4  88.9  88.2 39.04
188 2017-05-11  94.0  90.0  89.0  88.6  88.0 40.13
189 2017-05-12  93.3  89.1  88.3  87.8  87.1 41.22
190 2017-05-13  95.2  90.5  89.6  88.9  88.0 42.29
191 2017-05-14  95.3  89.6  88.7  88.2  87.5 43.37
192 2017-05-15  95.2  89.8  88.9  88.0  87.6 44.45
193 2017-05-16  94.9  90.2  89.3  88.4  87.9 45.41
194 2017-05-17  94.5  90.4  89.5  89.2  88.5 46.29
195 2017-05-18  93.5  90.2  89.1  88.8  88.3 47.16
196 2017-05-19  91.7  89.8  89.1  88.5  88.1 48.05
197 2017-05-20  92.0  89.5  89.1  88.7  88.2 48.84
198 2017-05-21  91.0  89.0  88.5  88.2  87.8 49.57
199 2017-05-22  91.0  89.2  88.5  88.1  87.6 50.26
200 2017-05-23  91.0  89.2  88.6  88.1  87.7 50.92
201 2017-05-24  90.2  88.3  87.6  87.1  86.9 51.57
202 2017-05-25  90.3  88.3  87.4  86.9  86.8 52.22
203 2017-05-26  90.3  87.9  87.1  86.7  86.6 52.92
204 2017-05-27  89.8  87.9  86.9  86.6  86.4 53.68
205 2017-05-28  89.0  87.5  86.9  86.6  86.5 54.41
206 2017-05-29  88.8  87.1  86.7  86.5  86.5 55.10
207 2017-05-30  87.7  87.1  86.6  86.4  86.4 55.76
209 2017-06-01  87.1  86.7  86.4  86.3  86.3 57.06
210 2017-06-02  87.0  86.4  86.3  86.3  86.3 57.72
211 2017-06-03  86.5  86.2  86.1  86.1  86.1 58.37
212 2017-06-04  86.2  86.1  86.0  86.0  86.0 59.00
213 2017-06-05  86.1  86.0  86.0  86.0  86.0 59.63
214 2017-06-06  86.0  86.0  86.0  86.0  86.0 60.23
215 2017-06-07  86.0  85.9  85.9  85.9  85.9 60.83
216 2017-06-08  86.0  85.9  85.9  85.9  85.9 61.41
217 2017-06-09  85.9  85.9  85.9  85.9  85.9 61.98
219 2017-06-11  85.5  85.5  85.5  85.5  85.5 63.06
220 2017-06-12  85.5  85.4  85.4  85.4  85.4 63.57
221 2017-06-13  85.4  85.4  85.4  85.4  85.4 64.07
222 2017-06-14  85.6  85.5  85.5  85.5  85.5 64.58
223 2017-06-15  85.5  85.5  85.5  85.5  85.5 65.11
224 2017-06-16  85.5  85.5  85.5  85.5  85.5 65.59
225 2017-06-17  85.4  85.4  85.4  85.4  85.4 66.06
226 2017-06-18  85.3  85.3  85.3  85.3  85.3 66.51
227 2017-06-19  84.7  84.6  84.6  84.6  84.6 66.96
228 2017-06-20  84.6  84.6  84.6  84.6  84.6 67.41
229 2017-06-21  84.6  84.6  84.6  84.6  84.6 67.85
230 2017-06-22  84.6  84.5  84.5  84.5  84.5 68.28
231 2017-06-23  84.5  84.5  84.5  84.5  84.5 68.70
232 2017-06-24  84.5  84.5  84.5  84.5  84.5 69.12
233 2017-06-25  84.5  84.5  84.5  84.5  84.5 69.54
234 2017-06-26  84.5  84.4  84.4  84.4  84.4 69.95
235 2017-06-27  84.4  84.4  84.4  84.4  84.4 70.35
236 2017-06-28  84.4  84.3  84.3  84.3  84.3 70.76
237 2017-06-29  84.3  84.3  84.3  84.3  84.3 71.16
238 2017-06-30  84.3  84.3  84.3  84.3  84.3 71.56
239 2017-07-01  84.6  84.6  84.6  84.6  84.6 72.28
240 2017-07-02  84.6  84.5  84.5  84.5  84.5 72.67
241 2017-07-03  84.5  84.5  84.5  84.5  84.5 73.05
242 2017-07-04  84.5  84.5  84.5  84.5  84.5 73.44
243 2017-07-05  84.5  84.4  84.4  84.4  84.4 73.82
244 2017-07-06  84.4  84.4  84.4  84.4  84.4 74.19
245 2017-07-07  84.4  84.3  84.3  84.3  84.3 74.57
246 2017-07-08  84.0  84.0  84.0  84.0  84.0 74.94
247 2017-07-09  83.7  83.7  83.7  83.7  83.7 75.30
248 2017-07-10  83.7  83.7  83.7  83.7  83.7 75.67
249 2017-07-11  83.7  83.7  83.7  83.7  83.7 76.03
250 2017-07-12  83.7  83.7  83.7  83.7  83.7 76.40
251 2017-07-13  83.7  83.6  83.6  83.6  83.6 76.76
252 2017-07-14  83.7  83.6  83.6  83.6  83.6 77.11
253 2017-07-15  83.6  83.6  83.6  83.6  83.6 77.47
254 2017-07-16  83.6  83.6  83.6  83.6  83.6 77.82
255 2017-07-17  83.6  83.6  83.6  83.6  83.6 78.17
256 2017-07-18  83.6  83.6  83.6  83.6  83.6 78.52
257 2017-07-19  83.6  83.6  83.6  83.6  83.6 78.88
258 2017-07-20  83.5  83.5  83.5  83.5  83.5 79.23
259 2017-07-21  83.5  83.5  83.5  83.5  83.5 79.57
260 2017-07-22  83.5  83.5  83.5  83.5  83.5 79.92
261 2017-07-23  83.5  83.5  83.5  83.5  83.5 80.26
262 2017-07-24  83.5  83.5  83.5  83.5  83.5 80.60
263 2017-07-25  83.5  83.5  83.5  83.5  83.5 80.96
264 2017-07-26  83.5  83.5  83.5  83.5  83.5 81.35
265 2017-07-27  83.5  83.5  83.5  83.5  83.5 81.74
266 2017-07-28  83.6  83.6  83.6  83.6  83.6 82.13
267 2017-07-29  83.6  83.6  83.6  83.6  83.6 82.51
268 2017-07-30  83.6  83.6  83.6  83.6  83.6 82.90
269 2017-07-31  83.6  83.6  83.6  83.6  83.6 83.27
p10=10% exceedance, etc., Obs=Included Observed

Maximum of 130.3 in 1984, Minimum of 13.2 in 1934, Average/Median for 1981-2010 is 43/29.
ESP forecasts in the Observed Period w/o observed values are not total runoff.