COLORADO BASIN RIVER FORECAST CENTER
  NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE / NATIONAL OCEANIC AND ATMOSPHERIC ADMINISTRATION

News

Access to our Water Supply Webinars Presentations More Info...
LAAU1 Water Supply Forecasts

  Plot   Forecasts   Observations   Historical   Annual/Official Verification   Reforcast Verification   

Water Year:     2013   2014   2015   2016   2017   
2015 Runoff Forecast Apr-Jul No Precipitation Forecast Included
Lake Fork - Moon Lake Res- Mtn Home- Nr (LAAU1)

Official Forecasts
  Forecast Date Max MP Min
1      2015-1-1  87 58  39
2      2015-2-1  77 53  38
3      2015-3-1  59 47  30
4      2015-4-1  46 37  26
5      2015-5-1  40 30  24
6      2015-6-1  54 49  43
MP=Most Probable

ESP Forecasts - 0 Days
      Run Date  p10  p30  p50  p70  p90   Obs
38  2014-11-15 82.9 71.6 55.7 48.6 36.6    NA
39  2014-11-16 82.7 71.5 55.4 48.3 35.8    NA
40  2014-11-17 82.8 71.5 55.5 48.2 35.8    NA
41  2014-11-18 82.4 71.4 55.4 47.9 35.7    NA
42  2014-11-19 82.1 70.9 54.8 47.8 35.7    NA
43  2014-11-20 81.8 69.9 54.3 47.7 35.7    NA
44  2014-11-21 81.8 69.8 52.2 47.7 35.7    NA
45  2014-11-22 81.2 69.6 51.8 46.9 35.7    NA
46  2014-11-23 84.4 72.1 54.2 49.4 38.0    NA
47  2014-11-24 85.0 72.4 54.9 49.9 38.4    NA
48  2014-11-25 85.6 72.9 55.0 50.4 39.0    NA
49  2014-11-26 87.2 74.5 56.4 51.1 40.3    NA
50  2014-11-27 87.0 73.5 55.9 50.8 39.7    NA
51  2014-11-28 86.9 73.4 55.7 50.7 37.4    NA
52  2014-11-29 86.5 72.6 55.6 50.5 37.2    NA
53  2014-11-30 86.2 72.2 55.3 49.7 37.0    NA
54  2014-12-01 86.4 70.6 55.0 49.4 36.7    NA
55  2014-12-02 86.3 70.6 54.9 48.9 36.7    NA
56  2014-12-03 86.3 68.7 54.8 48.4 36.5    NA
57  2014-12-04 87.0 68.8 55.5 48.2 37.0    NA
58  2014-12-05 86.3 68.2 55.3 47.4 36.8    NA
59  2014-12-06 82.0 67.2 55.0 47.0 36.6    NA
60  2014-12-07 82.0 67.1 54.7 46.8 36.6    NA
61  2014-12-08 81.1 67.0 54.6 46.7 36.5    NA
62  2014-12-09 80.7 66.2 53.9 46.6 36.5    NA
63  2014-12-10 79.8 65.6 53.6 46.5 36.4    NA
64  2014-12-11 79.8 65.4 52.8 46.6 35.8    NA
65  2014-12-12 79.9 65.4 52.7 46.5 35.7    NA
66  2014-12-13 81.6 65.2 53.8 47.6 36.7    NA
67  2014-12-14 83.7 66.2 54.8 48.8 38.5    NA
68  2014-12-15 80.5 64.3 52.5 46.9 36.6    NA
69  2014-12-16 79.9 64.8 52.1 47.4 37.2    NA
70  2014-12-17 77.9 63.9 51.1 46.0 35.8    NA
71  2014-12-18 77.8 63.8 50.8 46.0 35.4    NA
72  2014-12-19 77.8 63.6 50.2 45.7 35.4    NA
73  2014-12-20 78.1 63.9 49.4 45.1 35.1    NA
74  2014-12-21 78.4 64.3 49.4 45.2 35.4    NA
75  2014-12-22 82.7 68.6 53.3 48.0 39.2    NA
76  2014-12-23 85.4 69.2 55.1 49.6 40.6    NA
77  2014-12-24 85.2 68.5 55.0 49.5 40.4    NA
78  2014-12-25 86.4 69.6 56.1 50.5 40.3    NA
79  2014-12-26 86.3 69.1 56.0 50.4 39.9    NA
80  2014-12-27 86.7 68.7 56.4 50.7 39.8    NA
81  2014-12-28 85.7 68.0 56.0 48.5 38.8    NA
82  2014-12-29 85.8 68.9 56.9 49.3 39.2    NA
83  2014-12-30 84.7 68.9 56.9 49.3 39.1    NA
84  2014-12-31 85.6 69.9 57.9 49.9 39.9    NA
85  2015-01-01 87.4 71.5 58.2 51.1 41.4    NA
86  2015-01-02 87.2 70.0 58.2 51.0 40.3    NA
87  2015-01-03 86.2 69.3 58.2 50.6 39.8    NA
88  2015-01-04 85.4 68.6 58.2 50.2 39.8    NA
89  2015-01-05 83.6 67.9 58.2 50.1 39.8    NA
90  2015-01-06 83.3 66.8 57.8 48.6 39.9    NA
91  2015-01-07 83.0 66.7 57.6 48.3 38.7    NA
92  2015-01-08 82.9 66.7 57.6 48.0 38.6    NA
93  2015-01-09 83.0 66.2 57.5 47.9 38.4    NA
94  2015-01-10 82.9 64.9 57.4 47.3 38.4    NA
95  2015-01-11 82.3 64.1 57.3 46.9 38.4    NA
96  2015-01-12 79.8 63.3 55.4 46.9 38.4    NA
97  2015-01-13 81.8 64.6 57.1 48.5 40.3    NA
98  2015-01-14 80.5 64.1 57.2 48.7 40.4    NA
99  2015-01-15 80.9 64.5 57.5 49.2 40.7    NA
100 2015-01-16 80.7 64.3 57.4 48.9 40.5    NA
101 2015-01-17 80.5 63.6 57.2 48.9 40.3    NA
102 2015-01-18 80.3 63.6 57.3 49.0 40.4    NA
103 2015-01-19 80.0 63.4 56.4 47.5 40.3    NA
104 2015-01-20 79.9 63.3 55.8 47.6 40.5    NA
105 2015-01-21 79.1 60.1 55.5 47.3 40.2    NA
106 2015-01-22 79.1 59.7 55.5 46.9 40.2    NA
107 2015-01-23 78.6 59.4 55.4 46.9 40.2    NA
108 2015-01-24 78.5 59.4 54.8 46.7 40.1    NA
109 2015-01-25 78.3 59.2 54.5 46.7 40.0    NA
110 2015-01-26 78.1 58.5 53.4 46.6 39.8    NA
111 2015-01-27 78.2 58.3 53.4 46.6 39.7    NA
112 2015-01-28 78.2 57.4 52.9 46.4 39.7    NA
113 2015-01-29 78.0 57.3 52.7 46.3 39.2    NA
114 2015-01-30 78.0 57.5 52.9 46.4 39.2    NA
115 2015-01-31 77.9 58.2 53.6 47.3 39.9    NA
116 2015-02-01 77.8 58.0 53.8 47.0 39.7    NA
117 2015-02-02 77.9 57.8 54.1 46.1 40.1    NA
118 2015-02-03 77.0 57.7 53.5 45.8 39.6    NA
119 2015-02-04 77.7 57.6 54.0 46.3 39.5    NA
120 2015-02-05 77.6 58.1 54.3 46.6 39.8    NA
121 2015-02-06 77.5 57.9 54.2 46.3 39.5    NA
122 2015-02-09 77.0 56.9 52.1 45.3 38.6    NA
123 2015-02-10 73.1 57.3 52.0 46.0 39.5    NA
124 2015-02-11 71.7 57.1 51.4 43.6 39.2    NA
125 2015-02-12 71.6 56.2 51.2 42.8 39.1    NA
126 2015-02-13 71.1 55.9 50.4 42.6 38.7    NA
127 2015-02-14 71.0 55.9 49.7 42.0 38.1    NA
128 2015-02-15 71.1 55.4 49.4 40.9 37.6    NA
129 2015-02-16 67.7 55.2 49.4 40.9 37.0    NA
130 2015-02-17 65.1 55.2 48.5 40.3 35.8    NA
131 2015-02-18 65.1 55.0 48.1 39.8 35.7    NA
132 2015-02-19 64.7 52.9 47.6 39.7 35.7    NA
133 2015-02-20 64.7 51.9 46.5 39.1 35.6    NA
134 2015-02-21 65.0 51.2 46.6 39.2 35.4    NA
135 2015-02-22 64.7 50.8 46.5 39.3 35.3    NA
136 2015-02-23 63.3 50.1 46.3 38.8 34.4    NA
137 2015-02-24 59.9 49.9 45.9 38.6 34.3    NA
138 2015-02-25 59.2 49.8 45.8 38.2 32.7    NA
139 2015-02-26 60.1 50.6 46.5 38.7 33.5    NA
140 2015-02-27 60.0 51.5 47.0 39.1 32.9    NA
141 2015-02-28 58.9 51.8 46.3 39.3 31.4    NA
142 2015-03-01 58.6 52.2 47.0 39.8 30.4    NA
143 2015-03-02 59.8 53.2 47.9 40.7 31.0    NA
144 2015-03-03 61.9 54.3 49.4 42.0 32.9    NA
145 2015-03-04 62.4 54.5 49.8 42.6 33.4    NA
146 2015-03-05 62.1 52.7 49.0 42.3 33.2    NA
147 2015-03-06 61.3 51.3 47.5 42.3 32.9    NA
148 2015-03-07 60.8 51.0 47.4 41.2 32.6    NA
149 2015-03-08 60.4 51.0 46.6 41.1 32.0    NA
150 2015-03-09 59.8 50.8 46.5 40.9 31.8    NA
151 2015-03-10 59.1 50.1 46.5 40.2 31.6    NA
152 2015-03-11 58.7 49.8 46.4 39.8 32.0    NA
153 2015-03-12 59.3 49.8 46.9 40.3 32.5    NA
154 2015-03-13 58.0 49.8 46.3 39.9 32.8    NA
155 2015-03-14 57.7 49.7 45.9 39.4 31.1    NA
156 2015-03-15 57.5 49.1 45.5 39.4 31.1    NA
157 2015-03-16 57.5 48.0 45.1 39.3 30.4    NA
158 2015-03-17 57.3 46.9 44.9 39.5 30.2    NA
159 2015-03-18 57.3 46.8 43.9 39.3 30.4    NA
160 2015-03-19 57.7 47.1 43.2 39.0 30.1    NA
161 2015-03-20 57.4 46.1 42.8 38.9 30.3    NA
162 2015-03-21 58.1 46.3 42.9 38.3 29.7    NA
163 2015-03-22 58.0 45.1 42.8 37.5 29.5    NA
164 2015-03-23 57.6 45.0 42.6 37.0 29.7    NA
165 2015-03-24 58.1 45.9 43.2 37.4 30.3    NA
166 2015-03-25 57.7 46.1 43.2 37.3 30.1    NA
167 2015-03-26 56.6 45.9 42.8 37.6 29.8    NA
168 2015-03-27 56.8 45.8 42.5 37.2 30.2    NA
169 2015-03-28 55.5 45.6 42.2 36.5 29.8    NA
170 2015-03-29 50.7 44.8 41.0 36.1 29.8    NA
171 2015-03-30 49.8 44.8 40.5 35.2 29.5    NA
172 2015-03-31 49.8 44.5 39.0 35.0 28.0    NA
173 2015-04-01 49.9 44.6 38.3 34.9 28.3    NA
174 2015-04-02 49.6 43.5 37.7 34.3 27.8  0.30
175 2015-04-03 49.7 41.3 37.8 34.5 26.5  0.39
176 2015-04-04 49.0 40.9 37.4 34.4 26.3  0.63
177 2015-04-05 46.8 40.5 37.0 33.9 26.2  0.73
178 2015-04-06 46.1 40.1 36.2 33.6 26.1  0.75
179 2015-04-07 45.6 40.2 35.9 33.6 25.8  0.85
180 2015-04-08 45.1 39.7 34.7 33.1 25.7  0.96
181 2015-04-09 45.7 39.0 35.1 33.5 26.4  0.97
182 2015-04-10 45.8 38.2 34.9 32.9 26.4  1.17
183 2015-04-11 45.3 37.7 34.0 31.8 26.2  1.23
184 2015-04-12 44.7 37.0 34.1 31.2 26.6  1.34
185 2015-04-13 42.6 36.8 33.8 30.7 26.5  1.42
186 2015-04-14 41.1 36.8 33.5 30.4 26.1  1.53
187 2015-04-15 40.7 36.7 33.2 30.0 25.6  1.68
188 2015-04-16 41.1 37.2 33.6 29.7 25.5  1.79
189 2015-04-17 41.8 37.8 33.3 29.4 25.7  1.90
190 2015-04-18 42.0 37.7 32.7 29.3 25.4  2.01
191 2015-04-19 42.3 37.5 32.3 28.6 24.6  2.12
192 2015-04-20 42.5 37.5 31.8 28.4 24.6  2.23
193 2015-04-21 42.2 37.2 31.4 27.9 24.3  2.33
194 2015-04-22 42.3 36.4 30.7 27.9 24.2  2.44
195 2015-04-23 42.2 35.0 30.7 27.8 23.8  2.55
196 2015-04-24 41.9 34.2 31.0 27.9 24.2  2.66
197 2015-04-25 42.3 33.1 30.8 28.0 24.2  2.77
200 2015-04-28 45.1 35.1 32.0 29.6 26.9  3.10
201 2015-04-29 43.5 34.1 31.4 29.2 26.2  3.19
202 2015-04-30 40.6 33.9 31.2 28.8 26.0  3.36
203 2015-05-01 39.9 33.6 30.8 28.3 25.4  3.02
212 2015-05-10 45.4 40.5 38.3 35.2 32.4  6.54
213 2015-05-11 45.8 39.6 37.7 34.6 32.5  7.05
215 2015-05-13 44.9 39.2 36.0 33.7 31.4  7.48
218 2015-05-16 47.8 43.6 38.5 37.1 35.3  8.81
219 2015-05-17 50.1 45.7 40.4 38.1 37.5  8.95
220 2015-05-18 51.7 47.0 42.0 39.9 38.9  9.16
221 2015-05-19 54.2 49.4 43.9 41.9 40.5  9.64
222 2015-05-20 54.9 48.6 44.8 42.9 40.8  9.89
223 2015-05-21 57.2 51.3 47.3 45.5 43.4 10.45
224 2015-05-22 56.6 49.3 46.9 45.4 43.0 10.66
225 2015-05-23 57.4 51.0 48.4 47.1 44.6 11.19
226 2015-05-24 57.3 51.0 48.2 46.6 44.3 11.66
227 2015-05-25 57.1 50.6 49.1 47.6 45.2 12.32
228 2015-05-26 55.7 50.9 49.4 47.6 45.6 12.67
229 2015-05-27 50.9 47.0 45.2 43.5 42.0 12.95
230 2015-05-28 49.4 45.6 44.0 42.5 41.5 13.48
231 2015-05-29 48.7 45.8 44.1 42.7 41.6 14.09
232 2015-05-30 49.0 45.7 44.2 42.8 41.2 14.65
233 2015-05-31 48.3 45.9 44.2 43.0 41.4 15.19
234 2015-06-01 50.4 47.1 46.1 44.6 43.5 17.74
235 2015-06-02 50.3 47.0 45.5 44.4 43.8 18.65
236 2015-06-03 49.1 47.5 45.8 44.7 43.9 19.83
237 2015-06-04 54.3 52.6 51.3 50.1 49.5 21.34
238 2015-06-05 54.9 52.9 51.8 50.6 49.8 22.83
239 2015-06-06 54.9 52.8 51.4 50.6 49.8 24.23
240 2015-06-07 54.9 52.9 51.5 50.8 49.7 25.62
241 2015-06-08 55.0 53.0 51.8 51.0 49.9 26.92
242 2015-06-09 54.8 52.2 51.6 50.8 49.8 27.64
243 2015-06-10 58.2 55.8 54.8 54.2 53.3 29.10
244 2015-06-11 57.9 55.7 54.8 54.2 53.3 30.28
246 2015-06-13 60.8 58.7 57.6 56.9 56.2 32.79
247 2015-06-14 63.8 61.6 60.4 59.9 59.1 34.40
248 2015-06-15 63.5 61.8 60.7 60.0 59.4 35.70
249 2015-06-16 65.1 63.3 62.3 61.7 61.1 36.91
250 2015-06-17 64.3 62.5 61.8 61.0 60.5 38.32
251 2015-06-18 63.5 61.8 60.7 60.1 59.7 39.74
252 2015-06-19 62.7 61.4 60.5 59.9 59.5 40.81
253 2015-06-20 62.5 61.2 60.4 59.9 59.6 41.96
254 2015-06-21 61.6 60.7 59.8 59.3 59.0 42.55
255 2015-06-22 61.4 60.3 59.6 59.1 58.8 43.26
256 2015-06-23 59.4 58.5 57.8 57.3 57.2 43.86
257 2015-06-24 59.0 57.8 57.4 56.9 56.8 44.34
258 2015-06-25 57.7 56.6 56.3 56.0 55.9 44.80
259 2015-06-26 56.4 55.7 55.4 55.3 55.2 45.37
260 2015-06-27 56.3 55.5 55.2 55.1 55.0 45.68
261 2015-06-28 55.9 55.3 55.1 55.0 55.0 46.10
262 2015-06-29 55.8 55.3 55.1 55.0 55.0 46.58
266 2015-07-04 54.2 53.8 53.6 53.5 53.5 46.81
267 2015-07-05 54.1 53.7 53.5 53.4 53.4 46.97
268 2015-07-06 53.9 53.4 53.2 53.1 53.1 46.99
269 2015-07-07 54.0 53.5 53.3 53.3 53.2 47.41
270 2015-07-08 53.8 53.3 53.1 53.0 53.0 47.73
271 2015-07-09 54.2 53.6 53.5 53.3 53.2 48.07
272 2015-07-10 54.8 54.2 53.9 53.8 53.7 48.17
273 2015-07-11 55.0 54.3 54.0 53.9 53.9 48.53
274 2015-07-12 55.3 54.5 54.3 54.2 54.2 49.10
275 2015-07-13 54.7 54.1 53.9 53.8 53.8 49.24
276 2015-07-14 54.6 54.0 53.7 53.7 53.7 49.45
277 2015-07-15 54.5 54.0 53.8 53.7 53.7 49.76
278 2015-07-16 54.5 53.9 53.7 53.7 53.7 49.99
279 2015-07-17 54.0 53.5 53.5 53.4 53.4 50.03
280 2015-07-18 54.0 53.6 53.5 53.5 53.5 50.33
281 2015-07-19 54.0 53.6 53.5 53.5 53.5 50.56
282 2015-07-20 54.1 53.6 53.6 53.5 53.5 50.85
283 2015-07-21 53.9 53.5 53.5 53.4 53.4 50.98
284 2015-07-23 53.8 53.4 53.4 53.3 53.3 51.18
285 2015-07-24 53.8 53.6 53.5 53.5 53.5 51.60
286 2015-07-25 53.6 53.3 53.2 53.2 53.2 51.61
287 2015-07-28 53.3 53.3 53.3 53.3 53.3 52.30
288 2015-07-29 53.2 53.2 53.2 53.2 53.2 52.48
289 2015-07-30 53.1 53.1 53.1 53.1 53.1 52.58
p10=10% exceedance, etc., Obs=Included Observed

Maximum of 126.9 in 2011, Minimum of -20.5 in 1939, Average/Median for 1981-2010.
ESP forecasts in the Observed Period w/o observed values are not total runoff.