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LAMU1 Water Supply Forecasts

  Plot   Forecasts   Observations   Historical   Annual/Official Verification   Reforcast Verification   

Water Year:     2013   2014   2015   2016   2017   
2013 Runoff Forecast Apr-Jul
Lambs Ck (LAMU1)

Official Forecasts
  Forecast Date Max  MP  Min
1      2013-1-1 7.5 3.9 1.70
2      2013-2-1 6.5 3.9 1.60
3      2013-3-1 5.2 3.1 1.10
4      2013-4-1 4.2 2.2 0.80
5      2013-5-1 3.5 1.7 0.55
6      2013-6-1 3.0 1.8 1.20
MP=Most Probable

ESP Forecasts - 0 Days
      Run Date    p10    p30    p50    p70    p90  Obs
1   2012-10-15 8.0954 6.2509 3.4433 1.7571 0.9321   NA
2   2012-10-25 7.9019 5.0559 3.2528 1.6952 0.9397   NA
3   2012-10-31 8.0727 5.2874 3.4089 1.8276 0.9265   NA
4   2012-11-01 7.8345 5.0334 3.1966 1.7176 0.9207   NA
5   2012-11-02 7.7122 5.0326 3.1712 1.7214 0.9221   NA
6   2012-11-05 7.4422 5.1149 3.0315 1.7363 0.9214   NA
7   2012-11-06 7.3607 5.1223 3.0004 1.7250 0.9162   NA
8   2012-11-09 7.4394 5.2375 3.0302 1.7208 0.9745   NA
9   2012-11-13 9.1695 6.7198 4.6724 3.1463 1.3480   NA
10  2012-11-14 8.6227 6.6424 4.6015 2.9910 1.2513   NA
11  2012-11-15 8.5457 6.6311 4.5585 2.9711 1.1393   NA
12  2012-11-16 8.4908 6.6257 4.4876 2.9606 1.1087   NA
13  2012-11-19 7.9964 6.6560 4.3477 2.8777 1.1179   NA
14  2012-11-20 7.9164 6.7425 4.4925 2.9672 1.1347   NA
15  2012-11-21 7.9006 6.6788 4.4898 2.8749 1.1085   NA
16  2012-11-26 7.2521 6.1312 3.9538 2.3729 1.0080   NA
17  2012-11-27 7.2499 5.9966 3.7649 2.2005 0.9891   NA
18  2012-11-28 7.2983 6.0091 3.7931 2.2061 1.0332   NA
19  2012-11-29 7.2758 5.8756 3.7338 2.0341 1.0253   NA
20  2012-11-30 7.2363 5.8201 3.7351 1.8982 1.0203   NA
21  2012-12-01 7.0816 5.8802 3.7844 1.8679 1.0374   NA
22  2012-12-02 7.0378 5.6943 3.7608 1.7235 1.0421   NA
23  2012-12-03 7.3654 6.0038 3.9447 1.9476 1.0658   NA
24  2012-12-04 7.3834 5.9552 3.9642 1.9580 1.0680   NA
25  2012-12-05 7.3438 5.7346 4.0161 2.0083 1.0710   NA
26  2012-12-09 6.9375 5.4021 3.9408 2.0014 1.0738   NA
27  2012-12-10 6.9912 5.2804 3.6362 2.0323 1.0815   NA
28  2012-12-11 7.2400 5.5059 3.8367 2.2088 1.1040   NA
29  2012-12-12 7.1102 5.4807 3.8515 2.2048 1.1069   NA
30  2012-12-13 7.0473 5.4134 3.7927 2.1823 1.1063   NA
31  2012-12-14 7.0083 5.3193 3.5197 2.0310 1.1066   NA
32  2012-12-15 7.1416 5.4749 3.6476 2.1739 1.1268   NA
33  2012-12-16 7.2378 5.6230 3.8473 2.3128 1.1726   NA
34  2012-12-17 7.3474 5.6152 3.9211 2.3720 1.1870   NA
35  2012-12-18 7.4705 5.8436 4.1006 2.3475 1.2195   NA
36  2012-12-19 7.4542 5.8468 4.0861 2.3687 1.2586   NA
37  2012-12-20 7.4530 5.6847 4.0047 2.3631 1.2600   NA
38  2012-12-21 7.5256 5.7746 4.0166 2.4200 1.2654   NA
39  2012-12-22 7.4391 5.7285 3.9324 2.3540 1.2665   NA
40  2012-12-23 7.2824 5.4414 3.7934 2.2307 1.2586   NA
41  2012-12-24 7.1075 5.5069 3.8247 2.1408 1.2973   NA
42  2012-12-25 7.3149 5.6878 3.9715 2.3318 1.3793   NA
43  2012-12-26 7.2822 5.6474 3.8094 2.3936 1.3761   NA
44  2012-12-27 7.6142 5.9853 3.9553 2.3379 1.4738   NA
45  2012-12-28 7.6771 6.0927 3.9320 2.3939 1.5244   NA
46  2012-12-29 7.8020 6.2189 3.9488 2.4199 1.5466   NA
47  2012-12-30 7.7841 6.1644 3.8882 2.3290 1.5466   NA
48  2012-12-31 7.5786 5.6280 3.9355 2.3163 1.5712   NA
49  2013-01-01 7.3156 5.5710 3.8848 2.2508 1.5591   NA
50  2013-01-02 7.3422 5.5076 3.8976 2.2540 1.5616   NA
51  2013-01-03 6.8777 5.2888 3.8903 2.2195 1.5364   NA
52  2013-01-04 6.8130 5.2694 3.8899 2.2164 1.5352   NA
53  2013-01-05 6.8033 5.2363 3.8769 2.2141 1.3503   NA
54  2013-01-06 6.6599 4.8426 3.6814 2.0651 1.2414   NA
55  2013-01-07 6.7200 4.8560 3.7390 2.1596 1.2344   NA
56  2013-01-08 6.5762 4.7743 3.6917 2.1561 1.2321   NA
57  2013-01-09 6.5589 4.7198 3.6418 2.1239 1.2260   NA
58  2013-01-10 6.5376 4.7053 3.4538 2.1201 1.2253   NA
59  2013-01-11 6.5296 4.7527 3.4655 2.0051 1.3201   NA
60  2013-01-14 7.1331 5.4821 3.8469 2.5010 1.6304   NA
61  2013-01-15 7.1265 5.4765 3.8065 2.4950 1.6243   NA
62  2013-01-16 6.7409 5.4716 3.7628 2.4731 1.6216   NA
63  2013-01-17 6.4895 5.4198 3.7201 2.4422 1.6069   NA
64  2013-01-18 6.2950 5.1753 3.6963 2.4214 1.5947   NA
65  2013-01-19 6.0660 5.1572 3.6819 2.2462 1.5944   NA
66  2013-01-20 6.0327 4.8712 3.6773 2.2298 1.5959   NA
67  2013-01-21 5.8916 4.8246 3.6673 2.2244 1.5464   NA
68  2013-01-22 5.9054 4.8283 3.4885 2.0535 1.5478   NA
69  2013-01-23 5.8744 4.6423 3.4158 1.9827 1.5412   NA
70  2013-01-24 5.8276 4.5351 3.3737 1.9515 1.5356   NA
71  2013-01-25 5.8517 4.3280 3.4036 1.9742 1.5638   NA
72  2013-01-28 5.9635 4.3527 3.6247 1.9822 1.6397   NA
73  2013-01-29 6.1235 4.5195 3.6170 2.1189 1.7356   NA
74  2013-01-30 6.2434 4.6433 3.6404 2.2216 1.7408   NA
75  2013-01-31 6.5294 4.9650 3.8427 2.5184 1.9471   NA
76  2013-02-02 6.3552 4.7821 3.6881 2.4163 1.7286   NA
77  2013-02-03 6.1116 4.6143 3.6713 2.4002 1.7158   NA
78  2013-02-04 6.0970 4.6532 3.6809 2.4275 1.5931   NA
79  2013-02-05 6.0916 4.5863 3.6495 2.3756 1.5647   NA
80  2013-02-06 6.0950 4.5681 3.6270 2.3506 1.5612   NA
81  2013-02-07 6.0949 4.5082 3.6271 2.3323 1.5612   NA
82  2013-02-08 6.0896 4.4582 3.6048 2.3378 1.5237   NA
83  2013-02-09 6.2872 4.6240 3.6314 2.4914 1.6442   NA
84  2013-02-10 6.3620 4.4674 3.5955 2.4373 1.6201   NA
85  2013-02-11 6.4460 4.3852 3.5580 2.3855 1.6178   NA
86  2013-02-12 6.0788 4.3842 3.5124 2.2342 1.6009   NA
87  2013-02-13 5.9420 4.3815 3.4741 1.9924 1.5859   NA
88  2013-02-14 5.7968 4.2862 3.4723 1.9422 1.3843   NA
89  2013-02-15 5.5333 4.3064 3.4728 1.9077 1.3555   NA
90  2013-02-16 5.4359 4.1574 3.4814 1.8518 1.3600   NA
91  2013-02-17 5.3438 4.0442 3.4006 1.8436 1.3625   NA
92  2013-02-18 5.3239 3.9495 3.3735 1.8389 1.3193   NA
93  2013-02-19 5.2994 3.8908 3.3414 1.8251 1.2660   NA
94  2013-02-20 5.2365 3.8559 3.3019 1.7990 1.2608   NA
95  2013-02-21 5.2611 3.8753 3.0425 1.8138 1.2436   NA
96  2013-02-22 5.2728 3.8843 3.0461 1.8607 1.2757   NA
97  2013-02-23 5.2674 3.8145 2.9256 1.8291 1.3241   NA
98  2013-02-24 5.1418 3.9276 3.0490 1.9268 1.2804   NA
99  2013-02-25 5.1511 4.1048 3.2113 1.9988 1.2691   NA
100 2013-02-26 4.9866 4.1157 3.0764 2.0445 1.2712   NA
101 2013-02-27 5.0613 4.1968 3.0207 2.0491 1.3112   NA
102 2013-02-28 5.1993 4.3175 3.1085 2.1658 1.3843   NA
103 2013-03-03 5.1525 4.2599 3.0397 2.0659 1.2985   NA
104 2013-03-04 5.4299 4.5237 3.2150 2.3164 1.4558   NA
105 2013-03-05 5.4310 4.3925 3.1190 2.3110 1.4636   NA
106 2013-03-06 5.4349 4.3292 3.0720 2.3157 1.4488   NA
107 2013-03-07 5.4394 4.3103 2.9215 2.1991 1.3680   NA
108 2013-03-08 5.4918 4.2877 2.8908 2.2127 1.3743   NA
109 2013-03-09 5.5598 4.3481 2.9215 2.2816 1.4263   NA
110 2013-03-10 5.5887 4.0748 2.9521 2.1624 1.3310   NA
111 2013-03-11 5.6266 4.0692 2.9636 2.0664 1.2773   NA
112 2013-03-12 5.4007 4.0064 2.9063 1.9931 1.2162   NA
113 2013-03-13 5.2788 3.9365 2.7995 1.9739 1.2199   NA
114 2013-03-14 5.2496 3.8330 2.7712 1.9459 1.2203   NA
115 2013-03-15 5.2513 3.8321 2.7699 1.9381 1.2173   NA
116 2013-03-16 5.2380 3.6779 2.7198 1.8369 1.2050   NA
117 2013-03-17 5.2662 3.6904 2.7210 1.8524 1.1921   NA
118 2013-03-18 5.2713 3.6484 2.6360 1.7278 1.2068   NA
119 2013-03-19 5.0491 3.5497 2.6449 1.7282 1.2086   NA
120 2013-03-20 4.9813 3.4658 2.4592 1.7401 1.2088   NA
121 2013-03-24 4.9573 3.9444 2.9396 2.2395 1.4133   NA
122 2013-03-26 4.6751 3.7036 2.9229 2.2211 1.2879   NA
123 2013-03-28 4.5959 3.4779 2.6473 2.1257 1.2815   NA
124 2013-03-29 4.5962 3.4299 2.4258 2.0588 1.2631   NA
125 2013-03-30 4.5377 3.1808 2.1854 2.0120 1.2695   NA
126 2013-03-31 4.4764 2.9282 2.0968 1.8919 1.2636   NA
127 2013-04-01 4.0995 2.7573 2.0701 1.7723 1.2511   NA
128 2013-04-02 4.5202 3.2314 2.5626 2.1300 1.4814   NA
129 2013-04-03 4.5347 2.9949 2.5265 2.1373 1.3494   NA
130 2013-04-04 4.3772 2.9627 2.3387 2.0675 1.3343   NA
131 2013-04-05 4.4108 2.9431 2.2360 2.0071 1.2871   NA
132 2013-04-06 4.4145 2.9730 2.2894 2.0032 1.3298   NA
133 2013-04-07 4.4009 2.9845 2.1883 1.9338 1.3104   NA
134 2013-04-08 4.2215 2.9738 2.1648 1.7012 1.3054   NA
135 2013-04-09 4.5443 3.3263 2.6546 2.1012 1.7457   NA
136 2013-04-10 4.5764 3.3354 2.7191 2.0489 1.7011   NA
137 2013-04-11 4.5297 3.3713 2.7708 2.0910 1.7334   NA
138 2013-04-12 4.4258 3.4931 2.8431 2.2401 1.8950   NA
139 2013-04-13 4.4814 3.4290 2.8196 2.2563 1.6938   NA
140 2013-04-14 4.6241 3.5397 2.8272 2.3524 1.7862   NA
141 2013-04-15 4.7289 3.5973 2.8350 2.4031 1.7943   NA
142 2013-04-16 4.8234 3.6447 2.7231 2.3296 1.8687   NA
143 2013-04-17 4.7696 3.6285 2.7123 2.3407 1.8558   NA
144 2013-04-18 4.7300 3.6000 2.6169 2.1952 1.8478   NA
145 2013-04-19 4.5882 3.5335 2.3659 2.1460 1.6702   NA
146 2013-04-20 4.6531 3.5180 2.4632 2.1370 1.7367   NA
147 2013-04-21 4.7506 3.7578 2.6627 2.2803 1.8775   NA
148 2013-04-22 4.5248 3.5897 2.6238 2.1989 1.8533   NA
149 2013-04-23 4.5526 3.6121 2.5511 2.2364 1.8855   NA
150 2013-04-24 4.4910 3.4825 2.5272 2.1793 1.8577   NA
151 2013-04-25 4.4992 3.4686 2.4469 2.1569 1.8957   NA
152 2013-04-26 4.1478 3.1449 2.3193 2.0515 1.9079   NA
153 2013-04-27 4.0944 2.9851 2.2001 1.9560 1.6121   NA
154 2013-04-28 3.8045 2.9522 2.1682 1.8772 1.5632   NA
155 2013-04-29 3.6850 2.8696 2.1042 1.7746 1.4915   NA
156 2013-04-30 3.1614 2.4119 1.6712 1.3845 1.2028   NA
157 2013-05-01 3.4365 2.6651 1.9594 1.7570 1.5507 0.38
158 2013-05-02 2.9869 2.1521 1.5147 1.3115 1.2042   NA
159 2013-05-03 2.7807 1.9313 1.4937 1.2671 1.0003   NA
160 2013-05-04 2.5685 1.8131 1.3530 1.2213 0.9723   NA
161 2013-05-05 2.5431 1.7266 1.3454 1.1785 0.9591   NA
162 2013-05-06 2.4087 1.7431 1.3377 1.1952 0.9584   NA
163 2013-05-07 2.2953 1.7206 1.3395 1.1906 0.9489   NA
164 2013-05-08 2.2073 1.6820 1.2954 1.2071 0.9431   NA
165 2013-05-09 2.2468 1.6880 1.2792 1.1954 0.9595   NA
166 2013-05-10 2.1186 1.5927 1.1919 1.0782 0.9019   NA
167 2013-05-11 2.0409 1.4746 1.2143 1.1440 0.9799   NA
168 2013-05-12 1.8133 1.2955 1.1392 1.0659 0.9118   NA
169 2013-05-13 1.6952 1.2637 1.0950 1.0368 0.9043   NA
170 2013-05-14 1.6897 1.2237 1.0663 0.9490 0.8440   NA
171 2013-05-15 1.6962 1.2089 1.0812 0.9595 0.8299   NA
172 2013-05-16 1.5870 1.2370 1.0778 0.9728 0.8239   NA
173 2013-05-17 1.5474 1.1847 1.0719 0.9307 0.7541   NA
174 2013-05-18 1.5324 1.1258 1.0611 0.9309 0.7494   NA
175 2013-05-19 1.7969 1.3630 1.2742 1.1271 0.9770   NA
176 2013-05-20 1.8209 1.3684 1.2554 1.0993 0.9815   NA
177 2013-05-23 1.6673 1.2711 1.1540 1.0684 0.9884   NA
178 2013-05-24 1.4778 1.2057 1.0864 1.0085 0.9371   NA
179 2013-05-25 1.4544 1.1512 1.0311 0.9468 0.8925   NA
180 2013-05-26 1.3485 1.0874 0.9629 0.8975 0.8657   NA
181 2013-05-28 1.1827 0.9944 0.8223 0.8066 0.8022   NA
182 2013-05-29 1.3690 1.1669 0.9910 0.9465 0.9402   NA
183 2013-05-31 1.2046 0.8793 0.7845 0.7743 0.7731   NA
184 2013-06-01 2.3100 1.9575 1.9085 1.9006 1.8989 1.15
185 2013-06-03 1.1844 0.8415 0.8244 0.8207 0.8207   NA
186 2013-06-04 0.7626 0.6917 0.6915 0.6915 0.6915   NA
187 2013-06-05 0.7315 0.6697 0.6697 0.6697 0.6697   NA
188 2013-06-06 0.6728 0.6486 0.6486 0.6486 0.6486   NA
189 2013-06-07 0.6363 0.6282 0.6282 0.6282 0.6282   NA
190 2013-06-08 0.6165 0.6084 0.6084 0.6084 0.6084   NA
191 2013-06-09 0.5973 0.5891 0.5891 0.5891 0.5891   NA
192 2013-06-10 0.5786 0.5705 0.5705 0.5705 0.5705   NA
193 2013-06-11 0.5605 0.5524 0.5524 0.5524 0.5524   NA
194 2013-06-12 0.5429 0.5348 0.5348 0.5348 0.5348   NA
195 2013-06-13 0.5258 0.5177 0.5177 0.5177 0.5177   NA
196 2013-06-14 0.5092 0.5011 0.5011 0.5011 0.5011   NA
197 2013-06-15 0.4929 0.4849 0.4849 0.4849 0.4849   NA
198 2013-06-16 0.4772 0.4692 0.4692 0.4692 0.4692   NA
199 2013-06-17 0.4549 0.4538 0.4538 0.4538 0.4538   NA
200 2013-06-18 0.4400 0.4389 0.4389 0.4389 0.4389   NA
201 2013-06-19 0.4249 0.4244 0.4244 0.4244 0.4244   NA
202 2013-06-20 0.4107 0.4102 0.4102 0.4102 0.4102   NA
203 2013-06-22 0.3831 0.3829 0.3829 0.3829 0.3829   NA
204 2013-06-23 0.3700 0.3698 0.3698 0.3698 0.3698   NA
205 2013-06-24 0.3571 0.3569 0.3569 0.3569 0.3569   NA
206 2013-06-25 0.3444 0.3444 0.3444 0.3444 0.3444   NA
207 2013-06-26 0.3321 0.3321 0.3321 0.3321 0.3321   NA
208 2013-06-27 0.3201 0.3201 0.3201 0.3201 0.3201   NA
209 2013-06-28 0.3083 0.3083 0.3083 0.3083 0.3083   NA
210 2013-06-30 0.2856 0.2856 0.2856 0.2856 0.2856   NA
211 2013-07-02 0.2637 0.2637 0.2637 0.2637 0.2637   NA
212 2013-07-03 0.2531 0.2531 0.2531 0.2531 0.2531   NA
213 2013-07-04 0.2427 0.2427 0.2427 0.2427 0.2427   NA
214 2013-07-05 0.2330 0.2325 0.2325 0.2325 0.2325   NA
215 2013-07-06 0.2238 0.2225 0.2225 0.2225 0.2225   NA
216 2013-07-07 0.2164 0.2138 0.2138 0.2138 0.2138   NA
217 2013-07-08 0.2056 0.2030 0.2030 0.2030 0.2030   NA
218 2013-07-09 0.1949 0.1935 0.1935 0.1935 0.1935   NA
219 2013-07-10 0.1848 0.1841 0.1841 0.1841 0.1841   NA
220 2013-07-11 0.1756 0.1749 0.1749 0.1749 0.1749   NA
221 2013-07-12 0.1667 0.1658 0.1658 0.1658 0.1658   NA
222 2013-07-13 0.1571 0.1569 0.1569 0.1569 0.1569   NA
223 2013-07-14 0.1480 0.1480 0.1480 0.1480 0.1480   NA
224 2013-07-15 0.1394 0.1394 0.1394 0.1394 0.1394   NA
225 2013-07-16 0.1308 0.1308 0.1308 0.1308 0.1308   NA
226 2013-07-17 0.1223 0.1223 0.1223 0.1223 0.1223   NA
227 2013-07-18 0.1140 0.1140 0.1140 0.1140 0.1140   NA
228 2013-07-20 0.0977 0.0977 0.0977 0.0977 0.0977   NA
229 2013-07-21 0.0896 0.0896 0.0896 0.0896 0.0896   NA
230 2013-07-22 0.0817 0.0817 0.0817 0.0817 0.0817   NA
231 2013-07-23 0.0738 0.0738 0.0738 0.0738 0.0738   NA
232 2013-07-24 0.0661 0.0661 0.0661 0.0661 0.0661   NA
233 2013-07-25 0.0585 0.0585 0.0585 0.0585 0.0585   NA
234 2013-07-26 0.0509 0.0509 0.0509 0.0509 0.0509   NA
235 2013-07-27 0.0434 0.0434 0.0434 0.0434 0.0434   NA
236 2013-07-28 0.0360 0.0360 0.0360 0.0360 0.0360   NA
237 2013-07-29 0.0287 0.0287 0.0287 0.0287 0.0287   NA
238 2013-07-30 0.0214 0.0214 0.0214 0.0214 0.0214   NA
239 2013-07-31 0.0142 0.0142 0.0142 0.0142 0.0142   NA
240 2013-09-30 9.1651 7.2138 4.1899 2.7231 1.1134   NA
p10=10% exceedance, etc., Obs=Included Observed

Data Written 2013-10-16 12:30:31, Lastest ESP Run from 2013-09-30, CBRFC / NWS / NOAA
Maximum of 15.6 in 1984, Minimum of 0.5 in 1992, Average/Median for 1981-2010.
ESP forecasts in the Observed Period w/o observed values are not total runoff.