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LAMU1 Water Supply Forecasts

  Plot   Forecasts   Observations   Historical   Annual/Official Verification   Reforcast Verification   

Water Year:     2013   2014   2015   2016   2017   
2014 Runoff Forecast Apr-Jul (No Precip Forecast Included)
Lambs Ck (LAMU1)

Official Forecasts
  Forecast Date  Max   MP  Min
1      2014-1-1 5.20 2.70 0.97
2      2014-2-1 4.80 2.30 1.07
3      2014-3-1 5.60 3.20 1.32
4      2014-4-1 4.40 2.40 1.46
5      2014-5-1 2.80 1.69 1.32
6      2014-6-1 1.63 1.20 0.87
MP=Most Probable

ESP Forecasts - 0 Days
      Run Date    p10    p30    p50    p70    p90  Obs
27  2013-11-01 8.5763 5.7488 3.9679 2.2598 0.9962   NA
28  2013-11-02 8.5752 5.7608 3.8818 2.2798 0.9995   NA
29  2013-11-03 8.3320 5.4904 3.7154 2.2016 0.9836   NA
30  2013-11-04 8.4129 5.5835 3.5806 2.2790 0.9830   NA
31  2013-11-05 8.3362 5.7043 3.6539 2.3756 0.9802   NA
32  2013-11-06 8.2193 5.7435 3.6212 2.3800 0.9770   NA
33  2013-11-07 8.2181 5.7489 3.6121 2.3459 0.9754   NA
34  2013-11-08 8.1826 5.7496 3.6038 2.3450 0.9751   NA
35  2013-11-09 8.1907 5.7321 3.6078 2.2239 0.9772   NA
36  2013-11-10 8.0148 5.4115 3.5723 2.1668 0.9801   NA
37  2013-11-11 7.9484 5.2834 3.5072 2.1534 0.9799   NA
38  2013-11-12 7.8509 5.2264 3.4439 2.1295 0.9725   NA
39  2013-11-13 7.5679 5.2028 3.4080 2.0438 0.9722   NA
40  2013-11-14 7.2346 5.1967 3.3837 2.0251 0.9589   NA
41  2013-11-15 7.1473 5.1876 3.3367 1.9357 0.9508   NA
42  2013-11-16 7.2486 5.2845 3.3868 2.0015 0.9532   NA
43  2013-11-17 7.3589 5.4881 3.5390 2.1783 0.9602   NA
44  2013-11-18 7.2355 5.6365 3.6411 2.1242 0.9678   NA
45  2013-11-19 7.0748 5.6199 3.5989 2.1009 0.9636   NA
46  2013-11-20 6.9281 5.6625 3.7202 2.1881 0.9634   NA
47  2013-11-21 6.9871 5.8215 3.8125 2.2042 0.9711   NA
48  2013-11-22 7.0946 5.8955 3.8600 2.2159 0.9766   NA
49  2013-11-23 6.8749 5.5033 3.4753 2.1206 0.9536   NA
51  2013-11-25 6.7477 5.4245 3.4721 1.9673 0.9550   NA
52  2013-11-26 6.7324 5.4046 3.4669 1.9346 0.9463   NA
53  2013-11-27 6.7340 5.4055 3.3215 1.7615 0.9438   NA
54  2013-11-28 6.7215 5.3067 3.2817 1.7242 0.9318   NA
55  2013-11-30 6.6766 5.2408 3.2513 1.4630 0.9255   NA
56  2013-12-01 6.3084 5.2572 3.2644 1.3977 0.9256   NA
57  2013-12-02 6.2815 5.0190 3.2550 1.3723 0.9260   NA
58  2013-12-03 6.4876 5.1814 3.3142 1.4493 0.9439   NA
59  2013-12-04 7.0585 5.6997 3.7247 1.7569 1.0039   NA
60  2013-12-05 6.9483 5.3833 3.7370 1.7721 1.0043   NA
61  2013-12-06 6.8654 5.3153 3.7149 1.7687 0.9974   NA
62  2013-12-07 6.5745 5.2033 3.7420 1.7733 1.0017   NA
63  2013-12-08 6.7458 5.2979 3.8501 1.8858 1.0126   NA
64  2013-12-10 6.7497 5.0686 3.5435 1.9147 1.0224   NA
65  2013-12-11 6.7172 5.0007 3.5410 1.9148 1.0201   NA
66  2013-12-12 6.7173 4.9452 3.5342 1.8736 1.0206   NA
67  2013-12-13 6.6778 4.8928 3.4808 1.8497 1.0135   NA
68  2013-12-15 6.5425 4.7115 3.1449 1.6448 1.0069   NA
69  2013-12-16 6.5215 4.7528 3.2029 1.6808 1.0173   NA
70  2013-12-17 6.5287 4.6347 3.1713 1.6366 1.0139   NA
71  2013-12-18 6.2856 4.4877 3.0499 1.3661 0.9969   NA
72  2013-12-19 6.1963 4.5176 2.9973 1.3645 1.0005   NA
73  2013-12-20 6.2558 4.5543 3.0246 1.3888 1.0171   NA
74  2013-12-21 6.3990 4.6978 3.1035 1.5161 1.0344   NA
75  2013-12-22 6.2772 4.7131 3.0617 1.4826 1.0384   NA
76  2013-12-25 6.1255 4.8026 3.2207 1.6327 1.0558   NA
77  2013-12-26 6.1116 4.7345 3.0352 1.5680 1.0547   NA
78  2013-12-27 6.0829 4.7060 2.9003 1.3576 1.0545   NA
79  2013-12-28 6.0268 4.6874 2.8003 1.3478 1.0538   NA
80  2013-12-29 5.9465 4.6627 2.7250 1.3021 1.0484   NA
81  2013-12-30 6.1026 4.7785 2.8162 1.3841 1.0752   NA
82  2013-12-31 5.9664 4.0583 2.7974 1.3726 1.0818   NA
83  2014-01-01 5.5641 3.9584 2.6877 1.3400 1.0895   NA
84  2014-01-02 5.5582 3.9181 2.6917 1.3241 1.0715   NA
85  2014-01-03 5.4256 3.7483 2.6861 1.3166 1.0404   NA
86  2014-01-04 5.5196 3.8169 2.7472 1.3556 1.0512   NA
87  2014-01-05 5.3052 3.8347 2.7637 1.3044 0.9807   NA
88  2014-01-06 5.2414 3.7260 2.7399 1.2989 0.9726   NA
89  2014-01-07 5.1568 3.6141 2.6042 1.2514 0.9633   NA
90  2014-01-08 5.1658 3.5867 2.6043 1.2612 0.9660   NA
91  2014-01-09 5.2884 3.6670 2.6977 1.2948 0.9744   NA
92  2014-01-10 5.3953 3.8467 2.7950 1.4607 0.9934   NA
93  2014-01-11 5.3403 3.8472 2.7874 1.3669 0.9972   NA
94  2014-01-12 5.5289 4.0013 2.9049 1.4262 1.0049   NA
95  2014-01-13 5.6217 4.0779 2.8760 1.4936 1.0145   NA
98  2014-01-16 5.4656 3.9486 2.6530 1.5097 1.0122   NA
99  2014-01-17 5.3303 3.9210 2.6406 1.4920 1.0091   NA
100 2014-01-18 5.1500 3.8644 2.6067 1.4764 1.0063   NA
101 2014-01-19 4.8924 3.7175 2.5895 1.3701 1.0111   NA
102 2014-01-20 4.9323 3.5893 2.5798 1.3548 1.0112   NA
103 2014-01-21 4.8183 3.5629 2.5838 1.3410 1.0039   NA
104 2014-01-22 4.8259 3.5583 2.4175 1.2090 1.0086   NA
105 2014-01-24 4.7745 3.3565 2.2723 1.1568 1.0127   NA
106 2014-01-25 4.7600 3.2207 2.2694 1.1575 1.0175   NA
107 2014-01-26 4.7354 3.2041 2.2705 1.1385 1.0196   NA
111 2014-01-30 5.0055 3.4507 2.5151 1.3051 1.0950   NA
112 2014-01-31 5.0455 3.4299 2.4750 1.3269 1.0928   NA
113 2014-02-01 5.0116 3.3947 2.5084 1.3156 1.0831   NA
114 2014-02-02 4.8937 3.1227 2.4675 1.2441 1.0684   NA
115 2014-02-03 4.7419 3.0794 2.4158 1.2578 1.0727   NA
116 2014-02-04 4.7278 3.1522 2.3610 1.2946 1.0622   NA
117 2014-02-05 4.7623 3.2062 2.3519 1.3186 1.0482   NA
118 2014-02-07 4.8715 3.2427 2.3699 1.3254 1.0291   NA
119 2014-02-08 5.0656 3.3966 2.4748 1.3716 1.0064   NA
120 2014-02-09 5.4413 3.7636 2.7776 1.6622 1.1043   NA
121 2014-02-10 5.7935 3.8723 3.0056 1.8743 1.1881   NA
122 2014-02-11 5.8320 3.8276 3.0026 1.8479 1.2491   NA
123 2014-02-12 5.4106 3.7695 2.8903 1.7509 1.1826   NA
124 2014-02-13 5.4854 3.9592 3.1023 1.7316 1.3536   NA
125 2014-02-14 5.6363 4.1278 3.3795 1.9131 1.4315   NA
126 2014-02-15 5.4228 4.1066 3.3808 1.8661 1.2877   NA
127 2014-02-16 5.2795 4.0183 3.3670 1.8447 1.3198   NA
128 2014-02-17 5.2493 4.0565 3.3724 1.9326 1.3138   NA
129 2014-02-18 5.2273 3.9498 3.3194 1.9639 1.3641   NA
130 2014-02-19 5.2072 3.8628 3.3306 1.8759 1.2460   NA
131 2014-02-20 5.2650 3.9402 3.3824 1.9997 1.3653   NA
132 2014-02-22 5.1227 3.8094 3.1935 1.9380 1.3350   NA
133 2014-02-23 5.0179 3.8242 3.0263 1.8594 1.4012   NA
134 2014-02-24 4.8371 3.8036 2.9754 1.8285 1.2467   NA
135 2014-02-25 4.7334 3.7603 2.9904 1.7351 1.1644   NA
136 2014-02-26 4.4551 3.6977 2.8136 1.6915 1.0827   NA
137 2014-02-27 4.4865 3.6742 2.7308 1.6833 1.0827   NA
138 2014-02-28 4.8171 4.0797 3.0532 2.0556 1.2744   NA
139 2014-03-01 5.0292 4.2525 3.2106 2.2062 1.2720   NA
140 2014-03-02 5.0815 4.2911 3.3088 2.2893 1.3135   NA
141 2014-03-03 5.1148 4.3312 3.2468 2.2876 1.3337   NA
142 2014-03-04 5.1412 4.3512 3.1873 2.2564 1.3541   NA
143 2014-03-05 5.2803 4.2608 3.2313 2.3829 1.3499   NA
144 2014-03-06 5.2903 4.2417 3.0935 2.3560 1.2217   NA
145 2014-03-07 5.3692 4.3186 3.0969 2.1875 1.2223   NA
146 2014-03-10 5.3945 4.0235 2.9590 2.1046 1.2665   NA
147 2014-03-11 5.6050 4.1670 3.1436 2.1641 1.3431   NA
148 2014-03-12 5.5423 4.1722 3.1451 2.2220 1.2873   NA
149 2014-03-13 5.4125 4.1427 3.0079 2.1784 1.2723   NA
150 2014-03-14 5.4119 4.1162 3.0111 2.0684 1.2891   NA
151 2014-03-15 5.3999 4.1483 2.9838 2.0485 1.3138   NA
152 2014-03-16 5.3297 4.0299 2.8976 1.9219 1.2887   NA
153 2014-03-17 5.3154 3.8649 2.8621 2.0120 1.2881   NA
154 2014-03-18 5.2834 3.8160 2.8574 1.9073 1.2373   NA
155 2014-03-19 5.1302 3.6020 2.8203 1.8717 1.1972   NA
156 2014-03-20 5.0743 3.5176 2.7349 1.8814 1.1676   NA
157 2014-03-21 4.6738 3.4212 2.7382 1.8748 1.1789   NA
158 2014-03-22 4.5547 3.3410 2.7424 1.9212 1.1661   NA
159 2014-03-23 4.4710 3.3658 2.6254 1.9066 1.1488   NA
160 2014-03-24 4.4664 3.3129 2.5573 1.8544 1.0756   NA
161 2014-03-25 4.4149 3.2755 2.5139 1.8331 1.0595   NA
162 2014-03-26 4.0901 3.2320 2.4681 1.8251 1.0579   NA
163 2014-03-27 4.2975 3.3117 2.4723 1.9146 1.1230   NA
164 2014-03-28 4.5474 3.4765 2.5881 2.1093 1.2668   NA
165 2014-03-30 4.4376 3.1037 2.2521 2.0260 1.1093   NA
166 2014-03-31 4.7022 3.2178 2.4006 2.1906 1.2881   NA
167 2014-04-01 4.4592 3.1974 2.4946 2.1576 1.3547   NA
168 2014-04-02 4.4470 3.2553 2.6028 2.2157 1.4172   NA
169 2014-04-03 4.4613 2.9899 2.5643 2.2119 1.4323   NA
170 2014-04-04 4.3545 3.0000 2.4625 2.1407 1.4541   NA
171 2014-04-05 4.3026 2.9442 2.3398 2.1060 1.4263   NA
172 2014-04-06 4.2824 2.9099 2.3533 2.0335 1.4354   NA
173 2014-04-07 4.3981 3.0183 2.3750 2.0710 1.5053   NA
174 2014-04-08 4.1311 2.9448 2.3494 1.8236 1.4897   NA
175 2014-04-09 3.9780 2.7988 2.2955 1.6953 1.3362   NA
176 2014-04-10 3.7572 2.7116 2.2441 1.6348 1.3090   NA
178 2014-04-12 3.4295 2.6119 2.1681 1.5130 1.1925   NA
179 2014-04-13 3.4620 2.5981 2.1390 1.5466 1.0636   NA
180 2014-04-14 3.5100 2.5564 2.0910 1.6005 1.0991   NA
181 2014-04-15 3.3640 2.4216 1.9205 1.3518 1.0246   NA
182 2014-04-16 3.3252 2.3894 1.7801 1.2950 0.9565   NA
183 2014-04-17 3.3023 2.4341 1.7945 1.2871 0.9404   NA
184 2014-04-18 3.1878 2.3631 1.6513 1.2281 0.9237   NA
185 2014-04-20 3.0289 2.0636 1.2335 1.0175 0.8924   NA
186 2014-04-21 2.9180 2.0255 1.2146 0.9937 0.8682   NA
187 2014-04-22 2.8090 1.9266 1.1351 0.8395 0.7870   NA
188 2014-04-23 2.8891 1.9817 1.1406 0.8703 0.7975   NA
189 2014-04-24 2.9211 1.9568 1.2131 0.9179 0.7954   NA
190 2014-04-25 2.7981 1.9280 1.0921 0.8923 0.7813   NA
191 2014-04-26 2.8098 1.8475 1.1843 0.9349 0.7730   NA
192 2014-04-27 3.0072 1.9685 1.2952 1.0975 0.8274   NA
193 2014-04-28 3.0486 2.2482 1.5992 1.4172 1.0654   NA
194 2014-04-29 3.0781 2.3334 1.6742 1.3966 1.1861   NA
195 2014-04-30 3.0038 2.2484 1.5816 1.3389 1.1600   NA
196 2014-05-01 3.2825 2.5009 1.8846 1.7089 1.5290 0.38
197 2014-05-02 2.7589 1.9947 1.4075 1.2339 1.1392   NA
198 2014-05-03 2.6021 1.7645 1.3739 1.2051 0.9000   NA
199 2014-05-04 2.3679 1.6606 1.2811 1.1638 0.8528   NA
200 2014-05-05 2.3059 1.5653 1.1896 1.0446 0.7911   NA
201 2014-05-06 2.1895 1.5307 1.1771 1.0417 0.7766   NA
202 2014-05-07 2.0870 1.5592 1.1952 1.0098 0.7631   NA
203 2014-05-08 2.2476 1.6069 1.2208 1.0944 0.8261   NA
205 2014-05-10 2.5412 1.8292 1.3907 1.2697 1.1169   NA
206 2014-05-11 2.4608 1.8921 1.4854 1.3560 1.1821   NA
207 2014-05-12 2.5016 1.9427 1.6751 1.5499 1.3768   NA
208 2014-05-13 2.2605 1.8461 1.6391 1.5492 1.3835   NA
209 2014-05-14 2.2233 1.7938 1.6155 1.4685 1.3647   NA
210 2014-05-15 2.2138 1.7169 1.6153 1.3969 1.3248   NA
211 2014-05-16 2.0747 1.7007 1.5511 1.3625 1.2206   NA
212 2014-05-17 2.0173 1.6562 1.5076 1.3281 1.1959   NA
213 2014-05-18 2.0475 1.5981 1.4785 1.3155 1.1895   NA
214 2014-05-19 2.0748 1.6130 1.5021 1.3285 1.1933   NA
215 2014-05-20 2.0648 1.5835 1.4498 1.2795 1.1681   NA
216 2014-05-21 2.0285 1.5341 1.3959 1.2632 1.1639   NA
217 2014-05-22 1.9179 1.4742 1.3218 1.2186 1.1093   NA
218 2014-05-24 1.7749 1.4764 1.3182 1.2245 1.0842   NA
219 2014-05-25 1.8494 1.5042 1.3760 1.2713 1.1508   NA
220 2014-05-26 1.7660 1.4802 1.3173 1.2320 1.1188   NA
221 2014-05-27 1.6564 1.4445 1.2838 1.1828 1.0857   NA
222 2014-05-28 1.6003 1.3821 1.2313 1.1222 1.0561   NA
224 2014-05-30 0.4754 0.4523 0.4508 0.4508 0.4508   NA
227 2014-06-02 0.4420 0.4175 0.4175 0.4175 0.4175   NA
228 2014-06-03 0.4313 0.4069 0.4069 0.4069 0.4069   NA
229 2014-06-04 0.4210 0.3965 0.3965 0.3965 0.3965   NA
230 2014-06-05 0.4108 0.3864 0.3864 0.3864 0.3864   NA
231 2014-06-06 0.3880 0.3765 0.3765 0.3765 0.3765   NA
232 2014-06-07 0.3748 0.3668 0.3668 0.3668 0.3668   NA
233 2014-06-08 0.3653 0.3573 0.3573 0.3573 0.3573   NA
234 2014-06-09 0.3560 0.3480 0.3480 0.3480 0.3480   NA
235 2014-06-10 0.3469 0.3389 0.3389 0.3389 0.3389   NA
236 2014-06-11 0.3380 0.3300 0.3300 0.3300 0.3300   NA
237 2014-06-12 0.3292 0.3212 0.3212 0.3212 0.3212   NA
238 2014-06-13 0.3207 0.3126 0.3126 0.3126 0.3126   NA
239 2014-06-14 0.3122 0.3042 0.3042 0.3042 0.3042   NA
240 2014-06-15 0.3038 0.2960 0.2960 0.2960 0.2960   NA
241 2014-06-16 0.2957 0.2878 0.2878 0.2878 0.2878   NA
242 2014-06-17 0.2822 0.2798 0.2798 0.2798 0.2798   NA
243 2014-06-18 0.2802 0.2720 0.2720 0.2720 0.2720   NA
244 2014-06-19 0.2729 0.2643 0.2643 0.2643 0.2643   NA
245 2014-06-20 0.2652 0.2567 0.2567 0.2567 0.2567   NA
246 2014-06-21 0.2572 0.2492 0.2492 0.2492 0.2492   NA
247 2014-06-22 0.2437 0.2418 0.2418 0.2418 0.2418   NA
248 2014-06-23 0.2365 0.2346 0.2346 0.2346 0.2346   NA
249 2014-06-24 0.2276 0.2274 0.2274 0.2274 0.2274   NA
250 2014-06-25 0.2204 0.2204 0.2204 0.2204 0.2204   NA
251 2014-06-26 0.2134 0.2134 0.2134 0.2134 0.2134   NA
252 2014-06-27 0.2065 0.2065 0.2065 0.2065 0.2065   NA
254 2014-06-29 0.1931 0.1931 0.1931 0.1931 0.1931   NA
256 2014-07-01 1.3999 1.3999 1.3999 1.3999 1.3999 1.22
257 2014-07-02 0.1735 0.1735 0.1735 0.1735 0.1735   NA
262 2014-07-07 0.1423 0.1423 0.1423 0.1423 0.1423   NA
265 2014-07-12 0.1126 0.1126 0.1126 0.1126 0.1126   NA
266 2014-07-13 0.1069 0.1069 0.1069 0.1069 0.1069   NA
267 2014-07-14 0.1011 0.1011 0.1011 0.1011 0.1011   NA
268 2014-07-15 0.0955 0.0955 0.0955 0.0955 0.0955   NA
269 2014-07-16 0.0898 0.0898 0.0898 0.0898 0.0898   NA
271 2014-07-21 0.0624 0.0624 0.0624 0.0624 0.0624   NA
272 2014-07-22 0.0570 0.0570 0.0570 0.0570 0.0570   NA
273 2014-07-23 0.0516 0.0516 0.0516 0.0516 0.0516   NA
274 2014-07-24 0.0463 0.0463 0.0463 0.0463 0.0463   NA
275 2014-07-25 0.0410 0.0410 0.0410 0.0410 0.0410   NA
278 2014-07-28 0.0254 0.0254 0.0254 0.0254 0.0254   NA
279 2014-07-29 0.0203 0.0203 0.0203 0.0203 0.0203   NA
280 2014-07-30 0.0152 0.0152 0.0152 0.0152 0.0152   NA
p10=10% exceedance, etc., Obs=Included Observed

Maximum of 15.6 in 1984, Minimum of 0.5 in 1992, Average/Median for 1981-2010.
ESP forecasts in the Observed Period w/o observed values are not total runoff.