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LAMU1 Water Supply Forecasts

  Plot   Forecasts   Observations   Historical   Annual/Official Verification   Reforcast Verification   

Water Year:     2013   2014   2015   2016   2017   
2016 Runoff Forecast Apr-Jul No Precipitation Forecast Included
Lambs Ck (LAMU1)

Official Forecasts
  Forecast Date Max  30  MP   70  Min
1      2016-1-1 6.3 4.5 3.4 1.78 1.14
2      2016-2-1 6.8 5.2 4.0 2.70 2.20
3      2016-3-1 5.8 4.7 3.4 2.50 1.41
4      2016-4-1 4.9 3.5 2.8 2.60 1.77
5      2016-5-1 4.3 3.5 3.1 3.00 2.80
6      2016-6-1 3.5 3.3 3.2 3.00 2.90
MP=Most Probable

ESP Forecasts - 0 Days
      Run Date     p10     p30     p50     p70     p90  Obs
24  2015-11-15 7.12919 5.06377 3.26688 1.87112 0.76923   NA
25  2015-11-16 7.11852 5.12410 3.24361 1.86864 0.76790   NA
26  2015-11-17 7.24129 5.32072 3.36028 1.99754 0.77775   NA
27  2015-11-18 6.91610 5.37608 3.42362 1.84573 0.78415   NA
28  2015-11-19 6.84226 5.39544 3.47640 1.85233 0.78755   NA
29  2015-11-20 6.73536 5.44502 3.56460 1.94776 0.79407   NA
30  2015-11-21 6.59451 5.42328 3.52104 1.84015 0.79059   NA
31  2015-11-22 6.57712 5.39648 3.47837 1.81508 0.78921   NA
32  2015-11-23 6.35995 5.02326 3.04579 1.72197 0.78735   NA
33  2015-11-24 6.20880 4.99157 3.04751 1.68561 0.78707   NA
34  2015-11-25 6.17381 4.96519 3.05335 1.56845 0.78618   NA
35  2015-11-26 6.19078 4.98114 3.08970 1.52608 0.78913   NA
36  2015-11-27 6.21383 4.98023 2.91766 1.38810 0.76015   NA
37  2015-11-28 6.20703 4.90301 2.88828 1.35768 0.74905   NA
38  2015-11-29 6.24252 4.82218 2.88093 1.23765 0.73258   NA
39  2015-11-30 6.18043 4.82308 2.89936 1.13172 0.73193   NA
40  2015-12-01 5.85267 4.82136 2.90606 1.09788 0.72791   NA
41  2015-12-02 6.22981 4.81625 3.21063 1.35991 0.97726   NA
42  2015-12-03 6.24620 4.81701 3.13718 1.36364 0.97826   NA
43  2015-12-04 6.23425 4.83928 3.14180 1.35841 0.98186   NA
44  2015-12-05 6.06950 4.56879 3.11657 1.35236 0.97765   NA
45  2015-12-06 6.01645 4.53288 3.09580 1.35545 0.98388   NA
46  2015-12-07 5.66860 4.29774 3.06905 1.34121 0.98230   NA
47  2015-12-08 5.55360 4.24866 3.03705 1.30776 0.97933   NA
48  2015-12-09 5.57367 4.14278 2.97601 1.31967 0.98239   NA
49  2015-12-10 5.57197 4.00056 2.66395 1.28163 0.98202   NA
50  2015-12-11 5.80353 4.15487 2.85762 1.34601 0.99242   NA
51  2015-12-12 5.81218 4.11737 2.85103 1.30140 0.98340   NA
52  2015-12-13 5.86737 4.12968 2.85125 1.31292 0.98491   NA
53  2015-12-14 6.12007 4.31393 2.78929 1.34212 1.00822   NA
54  2015-12-15 6.30522 4.47915 2.92152 1.40294 1.03219   NA
55  2015-12-16 6.50075 4.71672 3.19259 1.59841 1.07044   NA
56  2015-12-17 6.63320 4.73252 3.28288 1.67587 1.08427   NA
57  2015-12-18 6.51572 4.71481 3.26652 1.46305 1.07565   NA
58  2015-12-19 6.36079 4.67331 3.15002 1.43338 1.07364   NA
59  2015-12-20 6.31953 4.60439 3.07196 1.42837 1.07556   NA
60  2015-12-21 6.55978 4.81362 3.20565 1.58636 1.10197   NA
61  2015-12-22 6.79812 5.11717 3.41026 1.82117 1.13716   NA
62  2015-12-23 7.21380 5.42881 3.76691 2.22200 1.24450   NA
63  2015-12-24 7.23229 5.60869 3.93615 2.24474 1.30875   NA
64  2015-12-25 7.34156 5.67994 3.99905 2.36675 1.32891   NA
65  2015-12-26 7.37346 5.72154 3.90152 2.48271 1.34855   NA
66  2015-12-27 7.32585 5.69530 3.78302 2.14697 1.35571   NA
67  2015-12-28 7.25579 5.66582 3.66967 2.09694 1.35618   NA
68  2015-12-29 7.17060 5.59214 3.55456 1.97466 1.34272   NA
69  2015-12-30 7.12841 5.54504 3.50053 1.90242 1.35141   NA
70  2015-12-31 6.93890 4.98192 3.52592 1.93255 1.36481   NA
71  2016-01-01 6.68580 4.91714 3.46325 1.89942 1.36519   NA
72  2016-01-02 6.67051 4.83281 3.45572 1.87296 1.35213   NA
73  2016-01-03 6.42439 4.62067 3.45293 1.85207 1.28612   NA
74  2016-01-04 6.36315 4.60891 3.45307 1.85415 1.28495   NA
75  2016-01-05 6.38455 4.62687 3.47672 1.81567 1.17243   NA
76  2016-01-06 6.32423 4.51178 3.44502 1.82841 1.14309   NA
77  2016-01-07 6.40117 4.43625 3.36456 1.85421 1.14647   NA
78  2016-01-08 6.27432 4.47813 3.42438 1.93763 1.16456   NA
79  2016-01-09 6.22009 4.47711 3.42163 1.90824 1.17332   NA
80  2016-01-10 6.25196 4.50057 3.31987 1.94974 1.21344   NA
81  2016-01-11 6.17228 4.45682 3.27297 1.80461 1.17313   NA
82  2016-01-12 6.06142 4.45603 3.24513 1.72038 1.13222   NA
83  2016-01-13 6.04451 4.45349 3.16824 1.71007 1.13199   NA
84  2016-01-14 6.04232 4.44567 3.11362 1.70142 1.13203   NA
85  2016-01-15 6.19473 4.59901 3.19801 1.80981 1.18335   NA
86  2016-01-16 5.99650 4.71577 3.13731 1.87415 1.21204   NA
87  2016-01-17 6.06224 4.90230 3.31456 2.04860 1.30790   NA
88  2016-01-18 5.91965 4.77304 3.29813 2.05977 1.30859   NA
89  2016-01-19 5.86887 4.87295 3.44758 2.07378 1.39189   NA
90  2016-01-20 5.98215 4.72885 3.58726 2.18047 1.51550   NA
91  2016-01-21 5.89429 4.81106 3.67392 2.24254 1.51916   NA
92  2016-01-22 6.01755 4.96486 3.58815 2.17716 1.62317   NA
93  2016-01-23 6.04113 4.87684 3.55887 2.14254 1.64779   NA
94  2016-01-24 6.22766 4.97887 3.73709 2.29485 1.78704   NA
95  2016-01-25 6.46042 4.96213 3.96391 2.50833 1.98083   NA
96  2016-01-26 6.44986 4.86376 3.98128 2.32302 1.90461   NA
97  2016-01-27 6.38812 4.73308 3.95719 2.30306 1.86061   NA
98  2016-01-28 6.34814 4.70788 3.95066 2.28082 1.86028   NA
99  2016-01-29 6.36200 4.69618 3.78687 2.26310 1.89136   NA
100 2016-01-30 6.49990 4.86010 3.87711 2.37521 1.95351   NA
101 2016-01-31 6.80450 5.20567 4.02920 2.69424 2.17436   NA
102 2016-02-01 6.79851 5.19873 4.01167 2.69909 2.13015   NA
103 2016-02-02 6.83296 5.21476 4.06389 2.77461 2.13726   NA
104 2016-02-03 6.88510 5.45627 4.40713 3.09442 2.42663   NA
105 2016-02-04 6.72476 5.28699 4.24492 2.95474 2.15032   NA
106 2016-02-05 6.78198 5.28095 4.27512 2.96538 2.16524   NA
107 2016-02-06 6.77277 5.25744 4.23692 2.93706 2.15749   NA
108 2016-02-07 6.77090 5.14695 4.23499 2.83189 2.11237   NA
109 2016-02-08 6.77870 5.06448 4.18257 2.82171 2.04211   NA
110 2016-02-09 6.74964 5.03055 4.02494 2.78713 2.03681   NA
111 2016-02-10 6.69879 4.92736 4.02115 2.78314 2.03411   NA
112 2016-02-11 6.65832 4.75292 3.92907 2.64074 1.96191   NA
113 2016-02-12 6.49770 4.73140 3.89188 2.47490 1.97846   NA
114 2016-02-13 6.34831 4.72844 3.84599 2.30171 1.97956   NA
115 2016-02-14 6.23832 4.67101 3.83901 2.24149 1.63221   NA
116 2016-02-15 6.11377 4.88145 4.02486 2.37306 1.65057   NA
117 2016-02-16 6.02004 4.70298 4.02525 2.35961 1.64714   NA
118 2016-02-17 6.02332 4.67097 4.01278 2.41183 1.65847   NA
119 2016-02-18 6.01978 4.56215 3.99827 2.41071 1.61812   NA
120 2016-02-19 6.17362 4.65606 4.14221 2.57002 1.69117   NA
121 2016-02-20 6.25465 4.80632 4.26926 2.65084 1.78741   NA
122 2016-02-21 6.23339 4.77668 3.95119 2.61713 1.78583   NA
123 2016-02-22 6.14008 4.73210 3.89910 2.61716 1.77361   NA
124 2016-02-23 6.17097 4.68306 3.80747 2.61077 1.84633   NA
125 2016-02-24 5.87833 4.65873 3.79526 2.56757 1.72616   NA
126 2016-02-25 5.65763 4.67750 3.81832 2.45264 1.53811   NA
127 2016-02-26 5.44582 4.60518 3.59981 2.44983 1.47708   NA
128 2016-02-27 5.36984 4.54211 3.47892 2.40266 1.44811   NA
129 2016-02-28 5.35917 4.48457 3.39792 2.39401 1.42459   NA
130 2016-02-29 5.40444 4.53606 3.37427 2.38976 1.35480   NA
131 2016-03-01 5.27889 4.42341 3.30062 2.34307 1.29678   NA
132 2016-03-02 5.31929 4.44938 3.29836 2.32828 1.30646   NA
133 2016-03-03 5.27348 4.41796 3.27098 2.29044 1.27489   NA
134 2016-03-04 5.25901 4.40679 3.17740 2.27962 1.26179   NA
135 2016-03-05 5.26068 4.26129 3.08756 2.25349 1.25423   NA
136 2016-03-06 5.24532 4.23527 2.96325 2.26001 1.23162   NA
137 2016-03-07 5.55079 4.47051 3.06652 2.36280 1.29092   NA
138 2016-03-08 5.71436 4.48168 3.11288 2.47902 1.38914   NA
139 2016-03-09 5.72841 4.47985 3.05220 2.49681 1.39699   NA
140 2016-03-10 5.91091 4.33889 3.21368 2.50865 1.46422   NA
141 2016-03-11 5.86365 4.32010 3.19299 2.37830 1.33700   NA
142 2016-03-12 5.64677 4.22959 3.14090 2.32244 1.31312   NA
143 2016-03-13 5.55705 4.20914 3.06794 2.30804 1.33022   NA
144 2016-03-14 5.68678 4.31509 3.25528 2.43018 1.39706   NA
145 2016-03-15 5.80671 4.47309 3.33223 2.50488 1.40760   NA
146 2016-03-16 5.85407 4.37450 3.30349 2.43972 1.40082   NA
147 2016-03-17 5.83175 4.23165 3.27418 2.37560 1.45211   NA
148 2016-03-18 5.77985 4.19835 3.20144 2.26395 1.37821   NA
149 2016-03-19 5.52237 4.06669 3.17716 2.23329 1.34270   NA
150 2016-03-20 5.50078 3.96193 3.06055 2.25067 1.34570   NA
151 2016-03-21 5.26512 3.80184 3.02612 2.25438 1.35692   NA
152 2016-03-22 5.08673 3.87273 3.10716 2.35642 1.40129   NA
153 2016-03-23 5.20331 4.14268 3.27257 2.56201 1.55847   NA
154 2016-03-24 5.19630 4.23693 3.20566 2.58998 1.61102   NA
155 2016-03-25 5.20668 4.19748 3.21724 2.57120 1.45455   NA
156 2016-03-27 5.07146 3.92732 3.16159 2.51821 1.45258   NA
157 2016-03-28 5.04549 3.84923 2.97753 2.49220 1.43319   NA
158 2016-03-29 5.51794 4.26807 3.21663 2.91757 1.82997   NA
159 2016-03-30 5.65301 4.25778 3.20136 2.95887 1.92786   NA
160 2016-03-31 5.60694 4.01510 3.15361 2.84699 1.95384   NA
161 2016-04-01 5.17522 3.82236 3.12027 2.76276 1.91172   NA
162 2016-04-02 5.09590 3.79394 3.15168 2.70632 1.89821 0.03
163 2016-04-03 5.10471 3.53885 3.08551 2.66276 1.76423 0.04
164 2016-04-04 4.94618 3.52499 2.89865 2.61826 1.75368 0.05
165 2016-04-05 4.93563 3.46510 2.80467 2.56897 1.77551 0.08
166 2016-04-06 4.85284 3.42173 2.77007 2.48660 1.78390 0.10
167 2016-04-07 4.75797 3.35331 2.65258 2.38853 1.77246 0.11
168 2016-04-08 4.69043 3.42397 2.66594 2.15444 1.78737 0.16
169 2016-04-09 4.55408 3.26347 2.63867 2.09360 1.75083 0.18
170 2016-04-10 4.55901 3.33101 2.76171 2.10999 1.73057 0.21
171 2016-04-11 4.48607 3.28576 2.78033 2.12948 1.76559 0.25
172 2016-04-12 4.15870 3.19692 2.68792 2.01116 1.68955 0.32
173 2016-04-13 4.18532 3.19074 2.60432 2.04498 1.72578 0.37
174 2016-04-14 4.35552 3.29808 2.75012 2.23044 1.84019 0.44
175 2016-04-15 4.71220 3.72042 3.12098 2.54643 2.11205 0.51
176 2016-04-16 4.75455 3.72881 3.02509 2.45861 2.06199 0.59
177 2016-04-17 4.74312 3.74690 2.93117 2.41812 2.07023 0.63
178 2016-04-18 4.61899 3.70131 2.69664 2.36701 2.05225 0.66
179 2016-04-19 4.62242 3.69848 2.49477 2.23843 2.03909 0.68
180 2016-04-20 4.52596 3.35149 2.46082 2.13702 2.01116 0.71
181 2016-04-21 4.47401 3.35755 2.48407 2.07903 1.92260 0.74
182 2016-04-22 4.43900 3.37408 2.46796 2.04652 1.90854 0.78
183 2016-04-23 4.31050 3.32105 2.40032 2.10178 1.92724 0.82
184 2016-04-24 4.84670 3.82650 2.97868 2.60977 2.34377 0.91
185 2016-04-25 4.91176 4.05614 3.09523 2.72316 2.52691 0.99
186 2016-04-26 4.85510 3.84129 3.11388 2.76289 2.55168 1.05
187 2016-04-27 5.31673 4.23723 3.50085 3.29900 2.95116 1.15
188 2016-04-28 5.34384 4.48229 3.72327 3.53748 3.21673 1.19
189 2016-04-29 5.43821 4.63697 3.82626 3.59644 3.36997 1.33
190 2016-04-30 5.43568 4.58164 3.85586 3.59797 3.41613 1.39
191 2016-05-01 5.33901 4.48756 3.83509 3.61825 3.43026 1.44
192 2016-05-02 5.17087 4.35147 3.72601 3.52905 3.40981 1.46
193 2016-05-03 4.72590 3.93318 3.52562 3.37411 3.08083 1.48
194 2016-05-04 4.52018 3.84410 3.50113 3.38369 3.06683 1.50
195 2016-05-05 4.45911 3.75995 3.40261 3.24886 2.99339 1.53
196 2016-05-06 4.29557 3.65632 3.30999 3.16891 2.90260 1.56
197 2016-05-07 4.21082 3.72248 3.35913 3.21224 2.94118 1.60
198 2016-05-08 4.24672 3.71654 3.33624 3.26305 2.97688 1.64
199 2016-05-09 4.47308 3.89176 3.47401 3.38312 3.11929 1.69
200 2016-05-10 4.57633 3.94714 3.49460 3.40763 3.19192 1.72
201 2016-05-11 4.35677 3.75825 3.45016 3.35633 3.15442 1.76
202 2016-05-12 4.19393 3.67509 3.53769 3.40731 3.27455 1.80
203 2016-05-13 4.09322 3.68047 3.52917 3.42846 3.32740 1.84
204 2016-05-14 4.08774 3.68769 3.51756 3.40454 3.31922 1.87
205 2016-05-15 4.05041 3.58936 3.45973 3.30915 3.23584 1.90
206 2016-05-16 4.03723 3.67218 3.50285 3.38301 3.25666 1.93
207 2016-05-17 4.15867 3.80340 3.62980 3.49364 3.38876 1.97
208 2016-05-18 4.10605 3.67689 3.54155 3.41586 3.33862 1.99
209 2016-05-19 4.03851 3.56865 3.48210 3.33290 3.27068 2.02
210 2016-05-20 4.05896 3.59174 3.45516 3.30239 3.29147 2.04
211 2016-05-21 3.99565 3.56667 3.42972 3.28898 3.27683 2.06
212 2016-05-22 3.88529 3.50366 3.39181 3.31872 3.30453 2.09
213 2016-05-23 3.88326 3.47394 3.33811 3.30039 3.29285 2.11
214 2016-05-24 3.77486 3.47467 3.34077 3.29286 3.28475 2.14
215 2016-05-25 3.75125 3.42045 3.32007 3.27506 3.26832 2.16
216 2016-05-26 3.69721 3.41863 3.27714 3.26740 3.26344 2.19
217 2016-05-27 3.62687 3.42718 3.25967 3.25183 3.24980 2.21
218 2016-05-28 3.63028 3.45433 3.26816 3.24939 3.24730 2.24
219 2016-05-29 3.66727 3.46348 3.28264 3.23809 3.23588 2.26
220 2016-05-30 3.70814 3.44705 3.30189 3.23079 3.22765 2.28
221 2016-05-31 3.68278 3.38756 3.23841 3.22619 3.22609 2.31
222 2016-06-01 3.67512 3.33059 3.22435 3.21765 3.21765 2.33
223 2016-06-02 3.57247 3.22844 3.15196 3.14489 3.14489 2.35
224 2016-06-03 3.51854 3.14963 3.14437 3.14135 3.14135 2.37
225 2016-06-04 3.49853 3.14638 3.14133 3.13850 3.13850 2.39
226 2016-06-06 3.33282 3.15048 3.14474 3.14474 3.14474 2.44
227 2016-06-07 3.16489 3.15734 3.15377 3.15377 3.15377 2.47
228 2016-06-08 3.16143 3.15349 3.15338 3.15338 3.15338 2.49
229 2016-06-09 3.16125 3.15354 3.15354 3.15354 3.15354 2.51
230 2016-06-10 3.16194 3.15423 3.15423 3.15423 3.15423 2.53
231 2016-06-11 3.16313 3.15542 3.15542 3.15542 3.15542 2.55
232 2016-06-12 3.16488 3.15710 3.15710 3.15710 3.15710 2.57
233 2016-06-13 3.16707 3.15924 3.15924 3.15924 3.15924 2.59
234 2016-06-14 3.16971 3.16182 3.16182 3.16182 3.16182 2.61
235 2016-06-15 3.18265 3.17482 3.17482 3.17482 3.17482 2.64
236 2016-06-16 3.18605 3.17823 3.17823 3.17823 3.17823 2.66
237 2016-06-17 3.18875 3.18202 3.18202 3.18202 3.18202 2.68
238 2016-06-18 3.18969 3.18618 3.18618 3.18618 3.18618 2.70
239 2016-06-19 3.19354 3.19070 3.19070 3.19070 3.19070 2.72
240 2016-06-20 3.19840 3.19556 3.19556 3.19556 3.19556 2.74
241 2016-06-21 3.19088 3.19074 3.19074 3.19074 3.19074 2.75
242 2016-06-22 3.19637 3.19624 3.19624 3.19624 3.19624 2.77
243 2016-06-23 3.20217 3.20203 3.20203 3.20203 3.20203 2.79
244 2016-06-24 3.20825 3.20811 3.20811 3.20811 3.20811 2.81
247 2016-06-27 3.21796 3.21796 3.21796 3.21796 3.21796 2.86
248 2016-06-28 3.22507 3.22507 3.22507 3.22507 3.22507 2.88
249 2016-06-29 0.33242 0.33242 0.33242 0.33242 0.33242   NA
250 2016-06-30 0.31998 0.31998 0.31998 0.31998 0.31998   NA
251 2016-07-01 3.18777 3.18777 3.18777 3.18777 3.18777 2.88
252 2016-07-02 3.19575 3.19575 3.19575 3.19575 3.19575 2.90
253 2016-07-03 3.19394 3.19394 3.19394 3.19394 3.19394 2.91
254 2016-07-04 3.20231 3.20231 3.20231 3.20231 3.20231 2.93
255 2016-07-05 3.21086 3.21086 3.21086 3.21086 3.21086 2.95
256 2016-07-06 3.20959 3.20959 3.20959 3.20959 3.20959 2.96
257 2016-07-07 3.21848 3.21848 3.21848 3.21848 3.21848 2.98
258 2016-07-08 3.21754 3.21754 3.21754 3.21754 3.21754 2.99
259 2016-07-09 3.22674 3.22674 3.22674 3.22674 3.22674 3.01
260 2016-07-10 3.22609 3.22609 3.22609 3.22609 3.22609 3.02
261 2016-07-11 3.23559 3.23559 3.23559 3.23559 3.23559 3.04
262 2016-07-12 3.23523 3.23523 3.23523 3.23523 3.23523 3.05
264 2016-07-14 3.24489 3.24489 3.24489 3.24489 3.24489 3.08
265 2016-07-15 3.24491 3.24491 3.24491 3.24491 3.24491 3.09
266 2016-07-16 3.24504 3.24504 3.24504 3.24504 3.24504 3.10
267 2016-07-17 3.25528 3.25528 3.25528 3.25528 3.25528 3.12
269 2016-07-19 3.25609 3.25609 3.25609 3.25609 3.25609 3.14
270 2016-07-20 3.25665 3.25665 3.25665 3.25665 3.25665 3.15
273 2016-07-23 3.26889 3.26889 3.26889 3.26889 3.26889 3.19
274 2016-07-24 3.26981 3.26981 3.26981 3.26981 3.26981 3.20
275 2016-07-25 3.27082 3.27082 3.27082 3.27082 3.27082 3.21
276 2016-07-27 3.27308 3.27308 3.27308 3.27308 3.27308 3.23
277 2016-07-28 3.27432 3.27432 3.27432 3.27432 3.27432 3.24
278 2016-07-29 3.27564 3.27564 3.27564 3.27564 3.27564 3.25
279 2016-07-30 3.27702 3.27702 3.27702 3.27702 3.27702 3.26
280 2016-07-31 0.00848 0.00848 0.00848 0.00848 0.00848   NA
p10=10% exceedance, etc., Obs=Included Observed

Maximum of 15.6 in 1984, Minimum of 0.5 in 1992, Average/Median for 1981-2010 is 5.3/4.1.
ESP forecasts in the Observed Period w/o observed values are not total runoff.