COLORADO BASIN RIVER FORECAST CENTER
  NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE / NATIONAL OCEANIC AND ATMOSPHERIC ADMINISTRATION

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ROKU1 Water Supply Forecasts

  Plot   Forecasts   Observations   Historical   Annual/Official Verification   Reforcast Verification   

Water Year:     2013   2014   2015   2016   2017   
2017 Runoff Forecast Apr-Jul No Precipitation Forecast Included
Rock Ck - Mountain Home- Nr (ROKU1)

Official Forecasts
  Forecast Date Max  30  MP  70 Min
1      2017-1-1 150 120  99  86  72
2      2017-2-1 181 146 129 122 108
3      2017-3-1 180 166 155 144 127
4      2017-4-1 180 162 155 144 130
5      2017-5-1 167 152 146 136 130
6      2017-6-1 145 138 134 130 125
MP=Most Probable

ESP Forecasts - 0 Days
      Run Date p10   p30   p50   p70   p90    Obs
35  2016-12-09 117  98.3  70.3  60.3  45.7     NA
36  2016-12-10 115  98.1  70.3  60.4  45.9     NA
37  2016-12-11 120 104.5  75.2  65.1  49.5     NA
38  2016-12-12 122 106.0  75.1  66.0  50.3     NA
39  2016-12-13 122 100.7  74.8  65.7  50.1     NA
40  2016-12-14 122  99.0  72.4  65.3  49.7     NA
41  2016-12-15 124 101.7  74.8  66.4  51.0     NA
42  2016-12-16 128 107.4  78.6  69.3  54.9     NA
43  2016-12-17 133 112.6  82.3  72.6  58.3     NA
44  2016-12-18 133 112.5  81.6  71.8  56.0     NA
45  2016-12-19 133 112.0  81.0  71.6  55.6     NA
46  2016-12-20 131 111.5  80.4  71.0  55.5     NA
47  2016-12-21 128 111.1  79.1  70.8  55.5     NA
48  2016-12-22 127 110.0  78.8  69.6  55.4     NA
49  2016-12-23 126 107.1  78.8  68.7  55.3     NA
50  2016-12-24 126 106.6  78.7  68.2  54.7     NA
51  2016-12-25 134 112.5  84.3  73.6  59.6     NA
52  2016-12-26 134 107.8  84.5  72.0  59.8     NA
53  2016-12-27 137 108.1  86.6  74.1  61.5     NA
54  2016-12-28 138 108.7  87.6  74.9  62.2     NA
55  2016-12-29 138 108.9  88.2  75.3  62.6     NA
56  2016-12-30 136 108.5  88.1  75.3  61.5     NA
57  2016-12-31 136 108.6  88.3  75.4  61.4     NA
58  2017-01-01 136 108.2  87.7  75.0  60.9     NA
59  2017-01-02 136 108.0  87.7  75.2  60.5     NA
60  2017-01-03 144 113.3  94.7  81.5  65.5     NA
61  2017-01-04 145 114.4  95.6  82.3  66.6     NA
62  2017-01-05 154 122.3 104.3  90.1  73.9     NA
63  2017-01-06 154 122.5 104.1  89.7  74.5     NA
64  2017-01-07 153 122.1 101.1  88.5  74.1     NA
65  2017-01-08 154 123.8 102.9  90.1  75.1     NA
66  2017-01-09 159 126.3 105.8  93.7  78.2     NA
67  2017-01-10 171 137.1 117.0 103.7  88.1     NA
68  2017-01-11 180 146.7 125.0 112.5  96.7     NA
69  2017-01-12 186 151.4 128.0 115.8 101.7     NA
70  2017-01-13 187 152.4 128.0 115.3 101.8     NA
71  2017-01-14 188 150.5 128.4 115.8 102.5     NA
72  2017-01-15 188 147.8 128.2 115.7 102.2     NA
73  2017-01-16 186 147.3 128.0 115.0 101.9     NA
74  2017-01-17 182 142.1 124.5 110.8  98.7     NA
75  2017-01-18 179 141.6 124.0 110.8  98.7     NA
76  2017-01-19 179 140.1 123.8 110.8  98.7     NA
77  2017-01-20 177 140.4 124.3 111.2  98.7     NA
78  2017-01-21 175 140.0 124.5 111.4  98.2     NA
79  2017-01-22 175 139.0 122.5 111.8  98.0     NA
80  2017-01-23 175 139.0 122.9 112.6  98.7     NA
81  2017-01-24 184 149.2 132.9 122.9 108.4     NA
82  2017-01-25 184 151.0 133.8 125.0 110.5     NA
83  2017-01-26 186 152.2 134.3 125.8 112.0     NA
86  2017-01-29 187 151.5 134.2 127.9 113.7     NA
87  2017-01-30 187 151.6 134.1 127.7 113.2     NA
88  2017-01-31 186 150.7 133.2 125.1 110.5     NA
89  2017-02-01 186 150.0 132.7 123.8 109.9     NA
90  2017-02-02 186 148.5 132.7 121.6 109.9     NA
91  2017-02-03 186 148.5 131.5 121.1 110.3     NA
92  2017-02-04 186 147.9 131.0 119.8 109.3     NA
93  2017-02-05 186 147.8 131.9 119.7 110.2     NA
94  2017-02-06 188 151.7 136.0 123.4 113.7     NA
95  2017-02-07 192 155.8 140.2 127.2 117.6     NA
96  2017-02-08 187 157.2 140.0 129.7 119.9     NA
97  2017-02-09 187 159.4 141.9 132.1 117.9     NA
98  2017-02-10 183 159.2 141.7 132.0 117.2     NA
99  2017-02-11 182 159.6 142.4 129.4 117.6     NA
100 2017-02-12 182 158.3 142.0 129.0 117.5     NA
101 2017-02-13 182 157.6 141.6 128.9 116.5     NA
102 2017-02-14 182 157.0 141.5 128.4 116.2     NA
103 2017-02-15 181 157.9 142.2 127.6 117.2     NA
104 2017-02-16 180 157.5 142.3 127.7 116.8     NA
105 2017-02-17 177 155.7 143.1 128.4 117.4     NA
106 2017-02-18 169 155.9 143.0 127.4 117.4     NA
107 2017-02-19 169 156.8 144.1 127.9 117.8     NA
108 2017-02-20 168 154.3 141.2 128.0 117.6     NA
109 2017-02-21 177 159.0 148.2 136.4 124.9     NA
110 2017-02-22 178 160.2 150.4 138.1 126.0     NA
111 2017-02-23 180 163.1 153.6 141.0 128.9     NA
112 2017-02-24 177 162.6 153.5 141.1 128.3     NA
113 2017-02-25 177 162.6 153.6 140.6 125.3     NA
114 2017-02-26 177 162.4 152.9 140.6 125.1     NA
115 2017-02-27 176 162.0 150.9 138.9 123.1     NA
116 2017-02-28 182 168.1 156.2 144.9 127.4     NA
117 2017-03-01 182 168.3 156.9 145.0 127.4     NA
118 2017-03-02 181 167.1 155.2 144.0 125.5     NA
119 2017-03-03 181 166.3 152.9 140.7 125.5     NA
120 2017-03-04 181 165.4 153.0 140.2 125.5     NA
121 2017-03-05 181 162.1 152.6 140.3 125.4     NA
122 2017-03-06 180 162.0 149.9 140.0 125.3     NA
123 2017-03-07 180 162.1 150.0 140.3 124.9     NA
124 2017-03-08 180 162.5 150.2 140.1 122.7     NA
125 2017-03-09 180 162.2 150.0 138.0 122.7     NA
126 2017-03-10 177 162.1 150.0 137.9 122.2     NA
127 2017-03-11 177 161.7 149.7 138.0 122.0     NA
128 2017-03-12 176 156.9 148.9 137.8 121.5     NA
129 2017-03-13 176 156.5 148.8 137.5 121.4     NA
130 2017-03-14 176 154.5 147.7 136.9 120.1     NA
131 2017-03-15 176 153.5 146.0 136.9 119.9     NA
132 2017-03-16 176 152.2 145.1 136.3 119.3     NA
133 2017-03-17 175 150.7 144.1 135.8 118.9     NA
134 2017-03-18 175 150.3 140.4 135.1 117.7     NA
135 2017-03-19 175 150.2 140.0 134.9 117.3     NA
136 2017-03-20 175 149.6 139.7 132.4 116.4     NA
137 2017-03-21 175 149.1 139.5 131.6 115.9     NA
138 2017-03-22 174 149.0 139.4 129.5 115.5     NA
139 2017-03-23 179 154.8 145.0 134.6 120.9     NA
140 2017-03-24 180 154.7 146.2 135.4 122.2     NA
141 2017-03-25 179 154.2 146.2 135.4 122.3     NA
142 2017-03-26 177 155.1 145.7 136.1 123.1     NA
143 2017-03-27 176 154.5 144.7 135.6 122.6     NA
144 2017-03-28 179 158.0 146.7 138.4 124.4     NA
145 2017-03-29 177 155.4 145.4 137.7 123.7     NA
146 2017-03-30 177 154.8 144.0 137.1 123.6     NA
147 2017-03-31 179 158.0 146.5 138.9 126.4     NA
148 2017-04-01 180 160.8 150.2 142.2 130.0     NA
149 2017-04-02 181 160.5 149.6 141.0 130.0   0.26
150 2017-04-03 176 157.1 149.0 140.2 129.7   0.52
151 2017-04-04 175 156.0 148.0 139.8 129.7   0.77
152 2017-04-05 175 155.2 147.6 139.4 129.5   1.00
153 2017-04-06 174 155.2 146.8 139.4 128.2   1.22
154 2017-04-07 175 155.3 146.6 139.4 126.8   1.44
155 2017-04-08 173 154.8 145.6 136.2 126.7   1.66
156 2017-04-09 172 155.6 147.8 136.7 128.4   1.91
157 2017-04-10 172 155.4 149.2 137.8 129.1   2.20
158 2017-04-11 172 155.6 147.7 135.8 129.1   2.45
159 2017-04-12 170 155.1 147.7 134.6 129.1   2.69
160 2017-04-13 170 154.0 147.6 134.3 128.6   2.93
161 2017-04-14 170 154.7 148.2 134.7 125.3   3.20
162 2017-04-15 170 154.1 148.0 134.3 124.7   3.56
163 2017-04-16 169 154.0 147.8 133.5 124.1   3.98
164 2017-04-17 167 151.7 144.8 131.5 121.9   4.38
165 2017-04-18 166 151.4 144.1 131.2 121.8   4.83
166 2017-04-19 167 153.0 144.1 132.9 123.4   5.31
167 2017-04-20 167 153.0 142.7 133.2 123.7   5.83
168 2017-04-21 164 151.5 141.5 132.4 122.3   6.39
169 2017-04-22 164 151.7 141.3 132.9 122.7   6.91
170 2017-04-23 164 149.8 140.9 131.0 122.5   7.36
171 2017-04-24 164 150.0 141.1 131.0 122.6   7.79
172 2017-04-25 167 151.3 143.2 133.8 126.1   8.27
173 2017-04-26 167 151.7 142.5 134.8 126.9   8.69
174 2017-04-27 169 153.8 144.5 137.4 128.4   9.27
175 2017-04-28 170 154.5 146.0 137.9 129.9   9.66
176 2017-04-29 172 154.3 147.6 138.2 131.7  10.04
177 2017-04-30 168 153.5 147.0 137.9 131.7  10.38
178 2017-05-01 165 152.1 146.4 137.7 131.6  10.09
179 2017-05-02 163 151.1 145.3 136.3 130.7  10.41
180 2017-05-03 161 149.1 143.4 134.1 129.5  10.73
181 2017-05-04 160 148.5 143.5 133.6 128.7  11.08
182 2017-05-05 160 146.8 142.4 133.5 126.8  11.47
183 2017-05-06 159 145.8 142.2 133.5 126.4  12.02
184 2017-05-07 157 145.2 142.1 131.9 126.3  12.85
185 2017-05-08 157 144.8 141.4 131.2 125.3  13.90
186 2017-05-09 155 143.2 140.2 130.2 124.7  15.12
187 2017-05-10 152 142.7 137.3 130.0 124.2  16.51
188 2017-05-11 151 142.1 135.6 129.1 122.9  17.96
189 2017-05-12 151 141.6 134.1 128.3 122.4  19.48
190 2017-05-13 150 140.6 133.5 128.0 122.4  21.26
191 2017-05-14 150 139.7 133.2 127.7 122.3  23.30
192 2017-05-15 148 139.2 131.3 127.7 122.5  25.60
193 2017-05-16 148 138.8 130.5 127.3 122.4  27.72
194 2017-05-17 149 140.6 132.6 128.7 122.6  29.62
195 2017-05-18 148 140.0 132.9 128.8 122.9  31.37
196 2017-05-19 148 139.0 133.2 129.4 123.5  32.92
197 2017-05-20 147 136.5 132.6 129.0 123.1  34.25
198 2017-05-21 145 134.9 131.9 128.7 122.8  35.38
199 2017-05-22 144 135.0 131.1 128.6 123.0  36.40
200 2017-05-23 144 135.0 130.3 128.6 123.3  37.36
201 2017-05-24 144 133.8 130.5 127.6 123.1  38.28
202 2017-05-25 143 133.5 130.3 128.0 123.5  39.50
203 2017-05-26 142 134.1 131.0 127.9 124.0  41.25
204 2017-05-27 141 133.8 130.7 127.4 123.5  43.40
205 2017-05-28 141 133.5 130.7 126.9 123.2  45.30
206 2017-05-29 140 133.5 130.3 127.0 123.4  47.13
207 2017-05-30 140 133.3 130.2 126.6 123.2  49.10
209 2017-06-01 141 133.3 131.2 128.9 125.7  54.35
210 2017-06-02 143 135.4 132.5 130.6 127.7  57.80
211 2017-06-03 138 134.6 131.4 129.9 127.5  60.63
212 2017-06-04 138 134.5 131.8 129.8 127.3  63.39
213 2017-06-05 143 137.8 135.6 133.4 131.3  66.75
214 2017-06-06 144 139.6 137.1 134.6 132.6  70.15
215 2017-06-07 145 139.5 136.4 133.8 133.1  73.55
216 2017-06-08 147 141.2 138.2 135.6 134.7  77.06
217 2017-06-09 144 140.0 137.5 135.6 134.5  80.45
219 2017-06-11 141 139.3 137.0 135.2 134.6  86.94
220 2017-06-12 144 141.0 138.6 137.6 136.9  90.20
221 2017-06-13 144 141.3 138.8 138.2 137.6  93.23
222 2017-06-14 150 146.1 143.2 142.6 141.9  95.88
223 2017-06-15 150 146.3 143.4 142.7 142.1  97.93
224 2017-06-16 149 145.0 142.8 142.0 141.3  99.83
225 2017-06-17 149 145.3 143.0 142.1 141.6 101.72
226 2017-06-18 148 144.5 142.6 142.0 141.4 103.86
227 2017-06-19 148 144.6 143.3 142.6 142.0 106.26
228 2017-06-20 148 144.6 143.4 142.7 142.4 108.50
229 2017-06-21 147 144.7 143.3 142.7 142.3 110.59
230 2017-06-22 146 144.2 142.8 142.1 141.9 112.59
231 2017-06-23 144 141.6 140.5 139.7 139.4 114.51
232 2017-06-24 144 141.1 140.5 139.8 139.4 116.22
233 2017-06-25 142 139.4 138.7 138.3 138.1 117.76
234 2017-06-26 141 139.2 138.6 138.3 138.1 119.11
235 2017-06-27 140 139.1 138.4 138.1 138.0 120.35
236 2017-06-28 140 139.0 138.5 138.1 138.1 121.50
237 2017-06-29 140 139.1 138.5 138.2 138.2 122.59
238 2017-06-30 140 138.8 138.4 138.3 138.3 123.61
239 2017-07-01 134 133.0 132.6 132.6 132.5 118.73
240 2017-07-02 134 133.1 132.7 132.6 132.6 119.61
241 2017-07-03 134 133.1 132.8 132.7 132.7 120.43
242 2017-07-04 134 133.2 132.9 132.8 132.8 121.22
243 2017-07-05 134 133.3 132.9 132.9 132.9 121.97
244 2017-07-06 134 133.3 133.0 133.0 133.0 122.69
245 2017-07-07 134 133.4 133.1 133.1 133.1 123.38
246 2017-07-08 134 133.5 133.2 133.2 133.2 124.04
247 2017-07-09 134 133.4 133.2 133.2 133.2 124.66
248 2017-07-10 134 133.6 133.3 133.3 133.3 125.27
249 2017-07-11 135 133.8 133.6 133.6 133.6 125.86
250 2017-07-12 135 133.9 133.7 133.7 133.7 126.43
251 2017-07-13 135 134.1 134.0 134.0 134.0 127.02
252 2017-07-14 136 134.6 134.3 134.3 134.3 127.59
253 2017-07-15 136 134.4 134.3 134.3 134.3 128.17
254 2017-07-16 135 134.5 134.3 134.3 134.3 128.71
255 2017-07-17 136 135.0 134.8 134.7 134.7 129.24
256 2017-07-18 136 135.0 134.8 134.8 134.8 129.78
257 2017-07-19 136 135.1 135.0 135.0 135.0 130.33
258 2017-07-20 136 135.1 135.1 135.1 135.1 130.88
259 2017-07-21 136 135.4 135.4 135.4 135.4 131.37
260 2017-07-22 137 136.1 136.0 136.0 136.0 131.87
261 2017-07-23 137 136.1 136.0 136.0 136.0 132.41
262 2017-07-24 136 135.9 135.9 135.9 135.9 132.93
263 2017-07-25 136 135.9 135.9 135.9 135.9 133.39
264 2017-07-26 136 136.1 136.0 136.0 136.0 133.84
265 2017-07-27 136 136.2 136.2 136.2 136.2 134.31
266 2017-07-28 136 136.1 136.1 136.1 136.1 134.75
267 2017-07-29 136 136.2 136.2 136.2 136.2 135.16
268 2017-07-30 136 136.1 136.1 136.1 136.1 135.46
269 2017-07-31 136 136.2 136.2 136.2 136.2 135.81
p10=10% exceedance, etc., Obs=Included Observed

Maximum of 185.6 in 2011, Minimum of 34.5 in 1977, Average/Median for 1981-2010 is 88/86.
ESP forecasts in the Observed Period w/o observed values are not total runoff.