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SMPC2 Water Supply Forecasts
Plot Forecasts Observations Historical Annual/Official Verification Reforcast Verification
Water Year: 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Plot Forecasts Observations Historical Annual/Official Verification Reforcast Verification
Water Year: 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
2017 Runoff Forecast Apr-Jul No Precipitation Forecast Included San Miguel - Placerville- Nr (SMPC2) Official Forecasts Forecast Date Max 30 MP 70 Min 1 2017-1-1 165 130 110 95 75 2 2017-2-1 210 173 155 142 109 3 2017-3-1 205 170 155 140 109 4 2017-4-1 190 164 150 137 118 5 2017-5-1 160 145 138 128 120 6 2017-6-1 132 126 121 118 114 MP=Most Probable ESP Forecasts - 0 Days Run Date p10 p30 p50 p70 p90 Obs 35 2016-12-09 138 106 93.9 75.3 61.2 NA 36 2016-12-10 138 105 93.8 75.1 61.1 NA 37 2016-12-11 141 107 95.8 77.4 62.7 NA 38 2016-12-12 142 108 97.1 78.2 63.9 NA 39 2016-12-13 142 106 94.7 77.2 63.7 NA 40 2016-12-14 140 107 93.7 77.4 64.4 NA 41 2016-12-15 139 107 92.7 76.8 62.8 NA 42 2016-12-16 142 110 94.7 79.1 64.7 NA 43 2016-12-17 150 116 101.8 85.5 70.0 NA 44 2016-12-18 155 119 106.0 87.3 71.6 NA 45 2016-12-19 156 116 106.1 87.1 70.7 NA 46 2016-12-20 155 113 102.9 86.2 68.2 NA 47 2016-12-21 155 113 101.0 86.0 67.6 NA 48 2016-12-22 157 114 102.8 87.3 67.2 NA 49 2016-12-23 161 119 105.5 89.9 70.1 NA 50 2016-12-24 159 118 101.8 89.4 69.1 NA 51 2016-12-25 161 122 104.7 92.5 69.5 NA 52 2016-12-26 160 123 105.7 92.0 68.7 NA 53 2016-12-27 156 123 105.4 89.4 67.6 NA 54 2016-12-28 155 122 105.1 88.9 67.1 NA 55 2016-12-29 153 122 104.3 88.6 67.0 NA 56 2016-12-30 153 121 102.7 88.4 66.8 NA 57 2016-12-31 153 120 102.7 88.4 66.4 NA 58 2017-01-01 151 119 101.8 88.2 65.9 NA 59 2017-01-02 151 119 102.0 88.4 66.2 NA 60 2017-01-03 157 121 107.7 92.7 70.5 NA 61 2017-01-04 157 121 107.6 92.7 70.8 NA 62 2017-01-05 168 131 114.9 98.4 75.2 NA 63 2017-01-06 169 132 118.2 103.0 78.9 NA 64 2017-01-07 169 133 116.4 103.8 79.8 NA 65 2017-01-08 167 131 115.6 103.4 79.8 NA 66 2017-01-09 171 136 118.9 107.0 82.9 NA 67 2017-01-10 180 144 126.4 115.0 89.9 NA 68 2017-01-11 183 146 128.7 116.9 91.2 NA 69 2017-01-12 183 148 129.9 116.1 91.8 NA 70 2017-01-13 185 148 132.0 118.4 93.5 NA 71 2017-01-14 188 150 134.5 120.4 95.7 NA 72 2017-01-15 191 154 137.8 123.2 98.2 NA 73 2017-01-16 191 154 138.0 123.6 97.9 NA 74 2017-01-17 189 151 137.2 122.9 96.2 NA 75 2017-01-18 187 148 135.3 123.0 96.4 NA 76 2017-01-19 185 148 134.5 122.9 96.5 NA 77 2017-01-20 183 149 132.8 122.5 96.9 NA 78 2017-01-21 186 153 136.8 125.3 100.2 NA 79 2017-01-22 190 161 144.0 132.0 106.1 NA 80 2017-01-23 193 165 145.0 134.7 109.2 NA 81 2017-01-24 198 171 151.4 139.9 113.9 NA 82 2017-01-25 199 172 153.5 140.3 114.2 NA 86 2017-01-29 200 165 151.0 138.9 104.7 NA 87 2017-01-30 201 165 149.9 139.5 105.1 NA 88 2017-01-31 201 166 149.3 139.8 104.8 NA 89 2017-02-01 198 163 146.3 137.4 103.7 NA 90 2017-02-02 198 163 145.8 136.6 102.9 NA 91 2017-02-03 197 163 144.5 136.3 102.5 NA 92 2017-02-04 196 163 144.0 134.5 100.2 NA 93 2017-02-05 196 163 143.8 131.1 98.4 NA 94 2017-02-06 195 162 143.7 129.8 97.5 NA 95 2017-02-07 196 162 141.1 129.7 96.5 NA 96 2017-02-08 198 165 141.9 131.8 98.3 NA 97 2017-02-09 197 165 141.2 131.2 97.3 NA 98 2017-02-10 196 164 140.6 130.4 95.7 NA 99 2017-02-11 194 163 140.0 128.8 94.6 NA 100 2017-02-12 196 164 142.3 131.0 96.4 NA 101 2017-02-13 198 168 144.4 132.8 96.9 NA 102 2017-02-14 195 161 142.2 132.8 96.9 NA 103 2017-02-15 191 157 141.5 132.0 96.3 NA 104 2017-02-16 189 156 140.9 131.6 96.3 NA 105 2017-02-17 188 155 140.7 131.0 96.1 NA 106 2017-02-18 185 156 141.7 130.7 96.6 NA 107 2017-02-19 185 156 139.8 129.9 96.6 NA 108 2017-02-20 188 158 140.5 130.5 97.6 NA 109 2017-02-21 187 155 139.6 127.2 96.2 NA 110 2017-02-22 187 155 140.1 126.6 95.7 NA 111 2017-02-23 188 155 140.2 126.5 95.6 NA 112 2017-02-24 190 155 141.0 126.5 96.1 NA 113 2017-02-25 195 157 143.5 131.2 99.1 NA 114 2017-02-26 193 151 141.7 129.6 98.3 NA 115 2017-02-27 192 148 140.3 128.4 97.7 NA 116 2017-02-28 196 151 141.8 129.3 100.0 NA 117 2017-03-01 203 158 146.1 135.7 105.1 NA 118 2017-03-02 204 157 145.7 135.4 105.3 NA 119 2017-03-03 200 155 144.6 131.3 103.2 NA 120 2017-03-04 197 155 144.5 130.9 101.4 NA 121 2017-03-05 194 151 144.1 130.2 100.0 NA 122 2017-03-06 189 147 143.5 129.3 99.3 NA 123 2017-03-07 192 147 142.1 129.3 100.6 NA 124 2017-03-08 191 147 139.6 127.9 100.2 NA 125 2017-03-09 187 145 138.1 126.8 96.4 NA 126 2017-03-10 184 145 137.9 125.0 96.5 NA 127 2017-03-11 181 144 137.0 124.5 96.0 NA 128 2017-03-12 177 141 136.7 121.5 95.5 NA 129 2017-03-13 175 141 136.8 121.1 95.2 NA 130 2017-03-14 174 141 136.1 119.7 94.6 NA 131 2017-03-15 171 140 135.4 119.5 94.1 NA 132 2017-03-16 168 139 132.4 117.6 93.6 NA 133 2017-03-17 166 138 131.0 115.7 92.8 NA 134 2017-03-18 162 137 129.5 113.3 91.6 NA 135 2017-03-19 159 135 126.2 111.2 91.0 NA 136 2017-03-20 171 146 136.5 120.5 95.9 NA 137 2017-03-21 169 144 137.5 120.2 96.5 NA 138 2017-03-22 168 143 137.0 119.3 96.0 NA 139 2017-03-23 166 144 136.7 119.3 95.4 NA 140 2017-03-24 174 152 143.4 127.9 103.7 NA 141 2017-03-25 173 153 144.1 129.1 105.0 NA 142 2017-03-26 178 155 148.0 130.6 108.5 NA 143 2017-03-27 180 157 149.8 133.0 108.7 NA 144 2017-03-28 185 160 151.8 139.4 114.6 NA 145 2017-03-29 190 161 154.9 140.9 117.0 NA 146 2017-03-30 182 160 154.2 138.3 117.1 NA 147 2017-03-31 182 162 152.8 138.6 118.2 NA 148 2017-04-01 183 162 152.4 138.7 120.0 NA 149 2017-04-02 182 164 152.9 138.8 120.9 0.74 150 2017-04-03 178 165 151.3 136.9 120.5 1.42 151 2017-04-04 180 166 151.5 137.2 122.3 2.11 152 2017-04-05 182 166 151.0 140.7 125.5 2.77 153 2017-04-06 181 163 148.5 140.1 125.6 3.38 154 2017-04-07 178 159 146.6 136.0 124.3 3.94 155 2017-04-08 177 158 148.1 134.7 124.0 4.55 156 2017-04-09 174 157 147.5 133.4 123.2 5.29 157 2017-04-10 171 156 146.9 133.1 122.5 6.08 158 2017-04-11 171 155 143.9 127.7 120.9 6.83 159 2017-04-12 169 153 139.8 127.0 120.5 7.53 160 2017-04-13 169 152 137.9 126.6 119.9 8.22 161 2017-04-14 169 152 137.2 126.5 119.1 9.01 162 2017-04-15 169 151 137.4 125.3 117.0 9.91 163 2017-04-16 168 151 136.6 124.1 117.0 10.85 164 2017-04-17 168 150 135.5 124.1 117.5 11.81 165 2017-04-18 164 148 135.6 123.9 117.1 12.79 166 2017-04-19 168 153 140.0 128.4 121.8 13.81 167 2017-04-20 163 151 140.4 128.2 121.5 14.88 168 2017-04-21 161 152 139.8 127.3 120.9 15.88 169 2017-04-22 160 149 137.9 126.1 120.1 16.70 170 2017-04-23 160 147 137.8 124.0 119.7 17.45 171 2017-04-24 159 146 137.0 123.7 118.6 18.14 172 2017-04-25 157 144 135.0 123.4 117.3 18.85 173 2017-04-26 159 145 136.9 126.3 119.8 19.57 174 2017-04-27 160 145 138.4 128.1 121.2 20.26 175 2017-04-28 161 148 139.5 131.0 123.1 20.91 176 2017-04-29 161 148 140.1 131.5 123.9 21.52 177 2017-04-30 164 149 142.6 133.2 125.2 22.07 178 2017-05-01 160 146 138.3 131.7 123.1 20.29 179 2017-05-02 159 145 138.4 130.3 123.2 20.82 180 2017-05-03 158 144 138.2 130.3 122.2 21.31 181 2017-05-04 154 141 135.8 128.8 120.9 21.77 182 2017-05-05 152 140 134.3 126.9 120.5 22.23 183 2017-05-06 141 131 124.5 117.9 111.3 22.70 184 2017-05-07 140 130 124.1 116.4 110.5 23.25 185 2017-05-08 138 130 123.6 115.9 110.0 23.93 186 2017-05-09 131 125 117.2 110.1 105.7 24.78 187 2017-05-10 136 128 121.2 114.3 109.9 25.73 188 2017-05-11 138 131 124.1 115.8 111.7 26.73 189 2017-05-12 138 128 122.8 115.4 111.7 27.70 190 2017-05-13 137 126 120.6 114.6 110.8 28.62 191 2017-05-14 138 127 119.6 113.8 111.2 29.56 192 2017-05-15 137 127 118.8 113.6 110.3 30.68 193 2017-05-16 133 126 118.6 112.7 110.2 31.89 194 2017-05-17 132 125 118.3 112.6 110.5 33.12 195 2017-05-18 138 129 123.5 117.8 114.7 34.30 196 2017-05-19 142 132 125.0 120.4 117.7 35.39 197 2017-05-20 141 131 125.9 119.7 118.0 36.38 198 2017-05-21 139 130 124.7 119.3 117.4 37.30 199 2017-05-22 139 130 125.1 119.3 117.1 38.17 200 2017-05-23 138 131 125.2 120.9 118.2 39.00 201 2017-05-24 138 129 123.5 119.9 117.7 39.81 202 2017-05-25 137 128 121.6 119.1 117.5 40.62 203 2017-05-26 134 128 121.5 119.2 117.6 41.42 204 2017-05-27 133 128 120.6 119.2 117.3 42.31 205 2017-05-28 133 128 120.8 119.0 116.8 43.30 206 2017-05-29 132 128 120.6 119.0 116.8 44.35 207 2017-05-30 132 126 120.6 118.8 116.8 45.41 209 2017-06-01 133 127 122.2 120.8 118.9 49.31 210 2017-06-02 134 128 123.2 121.6 119.7 50.58 211 2017-06-03 134 128 123.5 121.9 120.1 52.02 212 2017-06-04 132 128 123.5 122.3 120.2 53.76 213 2017-06-05 132 128 123.6 122.4 120.6 55.62 214 2017-06-06 132 128 123.7 122.5 120.6 57.61 215 2017-06-07 132 128 123.9 122.6 120.5 59.70 216 2017-06-08 132 128 124.0 122.7 120.7 61.83 217 2017-06-09 132 128 124.2 122.9 120.8 63.93 219 2017-06-11 135 130 127.0 125.9 124.1 68.56 220 2017-06-12 135 130 126.7 125.7 124.1 70.98 221 2017-06-13 135 130 126.3 125.7 123.9 73.31 222 2017-06-14 135 129 126.3 125.7 123.8 75.48 223 2017-06-15 135 129 126.3 125.6 123.8 77.40 224 2017-06-16 134 129 126.7 125.6 124.3 79.14 225 2017-06-17 133 128 126.3 125.8 124.4 80.87 226 2017-06-18 133 129 126.8 125.6 124.2 82.81 227 2017-06-19 135 132 129.6 128.3 126.9 84.90 228 2017-06-20 135 132 129.1 128.0 126.8 87.19 229 2017-06-21 135 132 128.7 128.1 126.8 89.53 230 2017-06-22 135 131 129.2 127.8 126.5 91.71 231 2017-06-23 135 131 129.1 127.8 126.4 93.84 232 2017-06-24 135 130 129.0 127.7 125.9 95.88 233 2017-06-25 134 130 128.5 127.5 125.8 97.78 234 2017-06-26 133 129 128.3 127.4 125.7 99.52 235 2017-06-27 132 129 128.1 127.4 125.7 101.15 236 2017-06-28 132 129 127.5 126.9 125.7 102.68 237 2017-06-29 132 129 127.5 126.4 125.4 104.19 238 2017-06-30 131 128 127.6 126.5 125.6 105.61 239 2017-07-01 129 127 125.7 124.6 123.5 103.72 240 2017-07-02 129 126 125.2 124.6 123.6 104.90 241 2017-07-03 129 127 125.3 124.8 123.9 106.03 242 2017-07-04 129 126 125.0 124.0 123.6 107.10 243 2017-07-05 128 126 124.9 124.0 123.5 108.12 244 2017-07-06 128 126 125.0 124.2 123.7 109.14 245 2017-07-07 128 126 124.9 124.3 123.8 110.15 246 2017-07-08 129 127 125.7 125.3 124.6 111.13 247 2017-07-09 129 127 126.1 125.6 125.0 112.07 248 2017-07-10 130 127 126.6 125.8 125.2 113.03 249 2017-07-11 131 128 126.7 126.4 125.7 113.95 250 2017-07-12 132 130 128.7 128.4 127.7 114.88 251 2017-07-13 133 131 130.1 129.5 129.0 115.84 252 2017-07-14 132 129 128.7 128.0 127.4 116.92 253 2017-07-15 131 129 128.3 127.6 127.3 117.86 254 2017-07-16 130 129 128.2 127.5 127.4 118.77 255 2017-07-17 130 129 128.3 127.7 127.6 119.65 256 2017-07-18 130 129 128.3 127.7 127.7 120.47 257 2017-07-19 130 129 128.6 127.9 127.8 121.25 258 2017-07-20 130 129 128.8 128.1 128.0 122.03 259 2017-07-21 131 130 129.6 128.8 128.5 122.84 260 2017-07-22 131 130 129.5 129.0 129.0 123.61 261 2017-07-23 132 130 129.5 129.2 129.1 124.39 262 2017-07-24 131 130 129.5 129.2 129.2 125.20 263 2017-07-25 131 130 130.0 129.6 129.6 125.82 264 2017-07-26 131 130 129.7 129.6 129.6 126.30 265 2017-07-27 131 130 129.6 129.6 129.6 126.93 266 2017-07-28 130 130 129.6 129.6 129.6 127.56 267 2017-07-29 130 130 130.0 130.0 130.0 128.08 268 2017-07-30 130 130 130.0 130.0 130.0 128.63 269 2017-07-31 130 130 129.8 129.8 129.8 129.22 p10=10% exceedance, etc., Obs=Included Observed Maximum of 230.3 in 1984, Minimum of 32.2 in 2002, Average/Median for 1981-2010 is 128/122. ESP forecasts in the Observed Period w/o observed values are not total runoff.