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SMPC2 Water Supply Forecasts

  Plot   Forecasts   Observations   Historical   Annual/Official Verification   Reforcast Verification   

Water Year:     2013   2014   2015   2016   2017   
2017 Runoff Forecast Apr-Jul No Precipitation Forecast Included
San Miguel - Placerville- Nr (SMPC2)

Official Forecasts
  Forecast Date Max  30  MP  70 Min
1      2017-1-1 165 130 110  95  75
2      2017-2-1 210 173 155 142 109
3      2017-3-1 205 170 155 140 109
4      2017-4-1 190 164 150 137 118
5      2017-5-1 160 145 138 128 120
6      2017-6-1 132 126 121 118 114
MP=Most Probable

ESP Forecasts - 0 Days
      Run Date p10 p30   p50   p70   p90    Obs
35  2016-12-09 138 106  93.9  75.3  61.2     NA
36  2016-12-10 138 105  93.8  75.1  61.1     NA
37  2016-12-11 141 107  95.8  77.4  62.7     NA
38  2016-12-12 142 108  97.1  78.2  63.9     NA
39  2016-12-13 142 106  94.7  77.2  63.7     NA
40  2016-12-14 140 107  93.7  77.4  64.4     NA
41  2016-12-15 139 107  92.7  76.8  62.8     NA
42  2016-12-16 142 110  94.7  79.1  64.7     NA
43  2016-12-17 150 116 101.8  85.5  70.0     NA
44  2016-12-18 155 119 106.0  87.3  71.6     NA
45  2016-12-19 156 116 106.1  87.1  70.7     NA
46  2016-12-20 155 113 102.9  86.2  68.2     NA
47  2016-12-21 155 113 101.0  86.0  67.6     NA
48  2016-12-22 157 114 102.8  87.3  67.2     NA
49  2016-12-23 161 119 105.5  89.9  70.1     NA
50  2016-12-24 159 118 101.8  89.4  69.1     NA
51  2016-12-25 161 122 104.7  92.5  69.5     NA
52  2016-12-26 160 123 105.7  92.0  68.7     NA
53  2016-12-27 156 123 105.4  89.4  67.6     NA
54  2016-12-28 155 122 105.1  88.9  67.1     NA
55  2016-12-29 153 122 104.3  88.6  67.0     NA
56  2016-12-30 153 121 102.7  88.4  66.8     NA
57  2016-12-31 153 120 102.7  88.4  66.4     NA
58  2017-01-01 151 119 101.8  88.2  65.9     NA
59  2017-01-02 151 119 102.0  88.4  66.2     NA
60  2017-01-03 157 121 107.7  92.7  70.5     NA
61  2017-01-04 157 121 107.6  92.7  70.8     NA
62  2017-01-05 168 131 114.9  98.4  75.2     NA
63  2017-01-06 169 132 118.2 103.0  78.9     NA
64  2017-01-07 169 133 116.4 103.8  79.8     NA
65  2017-01-08 167 131 115.6 103.4  79.8     NA
66  2017-01-09 171 136 118.9 107.0  82.9     NA
67  2017-01-10 180 144 126.4 115.0  89.9     NA
68  2017-01-11 183 146 128.7 116.9  91.2     NA
69  2017-01-12 183 148 129.9 116.1  91.8     NA
70  2017-01-13 185 148 132.0 118.4  93.5     NA
71  2017-01-14 188 150 134.5 120.4  95.7     NA
72  2017-01-15 191 154 137.8 123.2  98.2     NA
73  2017-01-16 191 154 138.0 123.6  97.9     NA
74  2017-01-17 189 151 137.2 122.9  96.2     NA
75  2017-01-18 187 148 135.3 123.0  96.4     NA
76  2017-01-19 185 148 134.5 122.9  96.5     NA
77  2017-01-20 183 149 132.8 122.5  96.9     NA
78  2017-01-21 186 153 136.8 125.3 100.2     NA
79  2017-01-22 190 161 144.0 132.0 106.1     NA
80  2017-01-23 193 165 145.0 134.7 109.2     NA
81  2017-01-24 198 171 151.4 139.9 113.9     NA
82  2017-01-25 199 172 153.5 140.3 114.2     NA
86  2017-01-29 200 165 151.0 138.9 104.7     NA
87  2017-01-30 201 165 149.9 139.5 105.1     NA
88  2017-01-31 201 166 149.3 139.8 104.8     NA
89  2017-02-01 198 163 146.3 137.4 103.7     NA
90  2017-02-02 198 163 145.8 136.6 102.9     NA
91  2017-02-03 197 163 144.5 136.3 102.5     NA
92  2017-02-04 196 163 144.0 134.5 100.2     NA
93  2017-02-05 196 163 143.8 131.1  98.4     NA
94  2017-02-06 195 162 143.7 129.8  97.5     NA
95  2017-02-07 196 162 141.1 129.7  96.5     NA
96  2017-02-08 198 165 141.9 131.8  98.3     NA
97  2017-02-09 197 165 141.2 131.2  97.3     NA
98  2017-02-10 196 164 140.6 130.4  95.7     NA
99  2017-02-11 194 163 140.0 128.8  94.6     NA
100 2017-02-12 196 164 142.3 131.0  96.4     NA
101 2017-02-13 198 168 144.4 132.8  96.9     NA
102 2017-02-14 195 161 142.2 132.8  96.9     NA
103 2017-02-15 191 157 141.5 132.0  96.3     NA
104 2017-02-16 189 156 140.9 131.6  96.3     NA
105 2017-02-17 188 155 140.7 131.0  96.1     NA
106 2017-02-18 185 156 141.7 130.7  96.6     NA
107 2017-02-19 185 156 139.8 129.9  96.6     NA
108 2017-02-20 188 158 140.5 130.5  97.6     NA
109 2017-02-21 187 155 139.6 127.2  96.2     NA
110 2017-02-22 187 155 140.1 126.6  95.7     NA
111 2017-02-23 188 155 140.2 126.5  95.6     NA
112 2017-02-24 190 155 141.0 126.5  96.1     NA
113 2017-02-25 195 157 143.5 131.2  99.1     NA
114 2017-02-26 193 151 141.7 129.6  98.3     NA
115 2017-02-27 192 148 140.3 128.4  97.7     NA
116 2017-02-28 196 151 141.8 129.3 100.0     NA
117 2017-03-01 203 158 146.1 135.7 105.1     NA
118 2017-03-02 204 157 145.7 135.4 105.3     NA
119 2017-03-03 200 155 144.6 131.3 103.2     NA
120 2017-03-04 197 155 144.5 130.9 101.4     NA
121 2017-03-05 194 151 144.1 130.2 100.0     NA
122 2017-03-06 189 147 143.5 129.3  99.3     NA
123 2017-03-07 192 147 142.1 129.3 100.6     NA
124 2017-03-08 191 147 139.6 127.9 100.2     NA
125 2017-03-09 187 145 138.1 126.8  96.4     NA
126 2017-03-10 184 145 137.9 125.0  96.5     NA
127 2017-03-11 181 144 137.0 124.5  96.0     NA
128 2017-03-12 177 141 136.7 121.5  95.5     NA
129 2017-03-13 175 141 136.8 121.1  95.2     NA
130 2017-03-14 174 141 136.1 119.7  94.6     NA
131 2017-03-15 171 140 135.4 119.5  94.1     NA
132 2017-03-16 168 139 132.4 117.6  93.6     NA
133 2017-03-17 166 138 131.0 115.7  92.8     NA
134 2017-03-18 162 137 129.5 113.3  91.6     NA
135 2017-03-19 159 135 126.2 111.2  91.0     NA
136 2017-03-20 171 146 136.5 120.5  95.9     NA
137 2017-03-21 169 144 137.5 120.2  96.5     NA
138 2017-03-22 168 143 137.0 119.3  96.0     NA
139 2017-03-23 166 144 136.7 119.3  95.4     NA
140 2017-03-24 174 152 143.4 127.9 103.7     NA
141 2017-03-25 173 153 144.1 129.1 105.0     NA
142 2017-03-26 178 155 148.0 130.6 108.5     NA
143 2017-03-27 180 157 149.8 133.0 108.7     NA
144 2017-03-28 185 160 151.8 139.4 114.6     NA
145 2017-03-29 190 161 154.9 140.9 117.0     NA
146 2017-03-30 182 160 154.2 138.3 117.1     NA
147 2017-03-31 182 162 152.8 138.6 118.2     NA
148 2017-04-01 183 162 152.4 138.7 120.0     NA
149 2017-04-02 182 164 152.9 138.8 120.9   0.74
150 2017-04-03 178 165 151.3 136.9 120.5   1.42
151 2017-04-04 180 166 151.5 137.2 122.3   2.11
152 2017-04-05 182 166 151.0 140.7 125.5   2.77
153 2017-04-06 181 163 148.5 140.1 125.6   3.38
154 2017-04-07 178 159 146.6 136.0 124.3   3.94
155 2017-04-08 177 158 148.1 134.7 124.0   4.55
156 2017-04-09 174 157 147.5 133.4 123.2   5.29
157 2017-04-10 171 156 146.9 133.1 122.5   6.08
158 2017-04-11 171 155 143.9 127.7 120.9   6.83
159 2017-04-12 169 153 139.8 127.0 120.5   7.53
160 2017-04-13 169 152 137.9 126.6 119.9   8.22
161 2017-04-14 169 152 137.2 126.5 119.1   9.01
162 2017-04-15 169 151 137.4 125.3 117.0   9.91
163 2017-04-16 168 151 136.6 124.1 117.0  10.85
164 2017-04-17 168 150 135.5 124.1 117.5  11.81
165 2017-04-18 164 148 135.6 123.9 117.1  12.79
166 2017-04-19 168 153 140.0 128.4 121.8  13.81
167 2017-04-20 163 151 140.4 128.2 121.5  14.88
168 2017-04-21 161 152 139.8 127.3 120.9  15.88
169 2017-04-22 160 149 137.9 126.1 120.1  16.70
170 2017-04-23 160 147 137.8 124.0 119.7  17.45
171 2017-04-24 159 146 137.0 123.7 118.6  18.14
172 2017-04-25 157 144 135.0 123.4 117.3  18.85
173 2017-04-26 159 145 136.9 126.3 119.8  19.57
174 2017-04-27 160 145 138.4 128.1 121.2  20.26
175 2017-04-28 161 148 139.5 131.0 123.1  20.91
176 2017-04-29 161 148 140.1 131.5 123.9  21.52
177 2017-04-30 164 149 142.6 133.2 125.2  22.07
178 2017-05-01 160 146 138.3 131.7 123.1  20.29
179 2017-05-02 159 145 138.4 130.3 123.2  20.82
180 2017-05-03 158 144 138.2 130.3 122.2  21.31
181 2017-05-04 154 141 135.8 128.8 120.9  21.77
182 2017-05-05 152 140 134.3 126.9 120.5  22.23
183 2017-05-06 141 131 124.5 117.9 111.3  22.70
184 2017-05-07 140 130 124.1 116.4 110.5  23.25
185 2017-05-08 138 130 123.6 115.9 110.0  23.93
186 2017-05-09 131 125 117.2 110.1 105.7  24.78
187 2017-05-10 136 128 121.2 114.3 109.9  25.73
188 2017-05-11 138 131 124.1 115.8 111.7  26.73
189 2017-05-12 138 128 122.8 115.4 111.7  27.70
190 2017-05-13 137 126 120.6 114.6 110.8  28.62
191 2017-05-14 138 127 119.6 113.8 111.2  29.56
192 2017-05-15 137 127 118.8 113.6 110.3  30.68
193 2017-05-16 133 126 118.6 112.7 110.2  31.89
194 2017-05-17 132 125 118.3 112.6 110.5  33.12
195 2017-05-18 138 129 123.5 117.8 114.7  34.30
196 2017-05-19 142 132 125.0 120.4 117.7  35.39
197 2017-05-20 141 131 125.9 119.7 118.0  36.38
198 2017-05-21 139 130 124.7 119.3 117.4  37.30
199 2017-05-22 139 130 125.1 119.3 117.1  38.17
200 2017-05-23 138 131 125.2 120.9 118.2  39.00
201 2017-05-24 138 129 123.5 119.9 117.7  39.81
202 2017-05-25 137 128 121.6 119.1 117.5  40.62
203 2017-05-26 134 128 121.5 119.2 117.6  41.42
204 2017-05-27 133 128 120.6 119.2 117.3  42.31
205 2017-05-28 133 128 120.8 119.0 116.8  43.30
206 2017-05-29 132 128 120.6 119.0 116.8  44.35
207 2017-05-30 132 126 120.6 118.8 116.8  45.41
209 2017-06-01 133 127 122.2 120.8 118.9  49.31
210 2017-06-02 134 128 123.2 121.6 119.7  50.58
211 2017-06-03 134 128 123.5 121.9 120.1  52.02
212 2017-06-04 132 128 123.5 122.3 120.2  53.76
213 2017-06-05 132 128 123.6 122.4 120.6  55.62
214 2017-06-06 132 128 123.7 122.5 120.6  57.61
215 2017-06-07 132 128 123.9 122.6 120.5  59.70
216 2017-06-08 132 128 124.0 122.7 120.7  61.83
217 2017-06-09 132 128 124.2 122.9 120.8  63.93
219 2017-06-11 135 130 127.0 125.9 124.1  68.56
220 2017-06-12 135 130 126.7 125.7 124.1  70.98
221 2017-06-13 135 130 126.3 125.7 123.9  73.31
222 2017-06-14 135 129 126.3 125.7 123.8  75.48
223 2017-06-15 135 129 126.3 125.6 123.8  77.40
224 2017-06-16 134 129 126.7 125.6 124.3  79.14
225 2017-06-17 133 128 126.3 125.8 124.4  80.87
226 2017-06-18 133 129 126.8 125.6 124.2  82.81
227 2017-06-19 135 132 129.6 128.3 126.9  84.90
228 2017-06-20 135 132 129.1 128.0 126.8  87.19
229 2017-06-21 135 132 128.7 128.1 126.8  89.53
230 2017-06-22 135 131 129.2 127.8 126.5  91.71
231 2017-06-23 135 131 129.1 127.8 126.4  93.84
232 2017-06-24 135 130 129.0 127.7 125.9  95.88
233 2017-06-25 134 130 128.5 127.5 125.8  97.78
234 2017-06-26 133 129 128.3 127.4 125.7  99.52
235 2017-06-27 132 129 128.1 127.4 125.7 101.15
236 2017-06-28 132 129 127.5 126.9 125.7 102.68
237 2017-06-29 132 129 127.5 126.4 125.4 104.19
238 2017-06-30 131 128 127.6 126.5 125.6 105.61
239 2017-07-01 129 127 125.7 124.6 123.5 103.72
240 2017-07-02 129 126 125.2 124.6 123.6 104.90
241 2017-07-03 129 127 125.3 124.8 123.9 106.03
242 2017-07-04 129 126 125.0 124.0 123.6 107.10
243 2017-07-05 128 126 124.9 124.0 123.5 108.12
244 2017-07-06 128 126 125.0 124.2 123.7 109.14
245 2017-07-07 128 126 124.9 124.3 123.8 110.15
246 2017-07-08 129 127 125.7 125.3 124.6 111.13
247 2017-07-09 129 127 126.1 125.6 125.0 112.07
248 2017-07-10 130 127 126.6 125.8 125.2 113.03
249 2017-07-11 131 128 126.7 126.4 125.7 113.95
250 2017-07-12 132 130 128.7 128.4 127.7 114.88
251 2017-07-13 133 131 130.1 129.5 129.0 115.84
252 2017-07-14 132 129 128.7 128.0 127.4 116.92
253 2017-07-15 131 129 128.3 127.6 127.3 117.86
254 2017-07-16 130 129 128.2 127.5 127.4 118.77
255 2017-07-17 130 129 128.3 127.7 127.6 119.65
256 2017-07-18 130 129 128.3 127.7 127.7 120.47
257 2017-07-19 130 129 128.6 127.9 127.8 121.25
258 2017-07-20 130 129 128.8 128.1 128.0 122.03
259 2017-07-21 131 130 129.6 128.8 128.5 122.84
260 2017-07-22 131 130 129.5 129.0 129.0 123.61
261 2017-07-23 132 130 129.5 129.2 129.1 124.39
262 2017-07-24 131 130 129.5 129.2 129.2 125.20
263 2017-07-25 131 130 130.0 129.6 129.6 125.82
264 2017-07-26 131 130 129.7 129.6 129.6 126.30
265 2017-07-27 131 130 129.6 129.6 129.6 126.93
266 2017-07-28 130 130 129.6 129.6 129.6 127.56
267 2017-07-29 130 130 130.0 130.0 130.0 128.08
268 2017-07-30 130 130 130.0 130.0 130.0 128.63
269 2017-07-31 130 130 129.8 129.8 129.8 129.22
p10=10% exceedance, etc., Obs=Included Observed

Maximum of 230.3 in 1984, Minimum of 32.2 in 2002, Average/Median for 1981-2010 is 128/122.
ESP forecasts in the Observed Period w/o observed values are not total runoff.