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STDI1 Water Supply Forecasts

  Plot   Forecasts   Observations   Historical   Annual/Official Verification   Reforcast Verification   

Water Year:     2013   2014   2015   2016   2017   
2017 Runoff Forecast Apr-Jul No Precipitation Forecast Included
Bear - Montpelier- Nr- Stewart Dam- Blo (STDI1)

Official Forecasts
  Forecast Date Max  30  MP  70 Min
1      2017-1-1 465 350 290 220 155
2      2017-2-1 625 480 410 360 295
3      2017-3-1 730 630 555 510 440
4      2017-4-1 760 680 600 575 530
5      2017-5-1 665 625 600 580 550
6      2017-6-1 570 535 505 475 460
MP=Most Probable

ESP Forecasts - 0 Days
      Run Date     p10     p30     p50     p70     p90    Obs
35  2016-12-09 394.255 272.380 199.916 135.163  94.257     NA
36  2016-12-10 394.672 282.580 211.133 144.954 100.772     NA
37  2016-12-11 428.529 314.036 236.716 165.579 115.639     NA
38  2016-12-12 423.031 320.150 238.823 164.335 118.387     NA
39  2016-12-13 416.928 307.454 234.968 164.183 118.349     NA
40  2016-12-14 413.510 297.142 221.364 163.462 117.044     NA
41  2016-12-15 426.779 309.331 232.248 169.692 116.169     NA
42  2016-12-16 444.455 331.451 246.481 181.032 114.947     NA
43  2016-12-17 474.571 359.507 262.864 192.850 125.799     NA
44  2016-12-18 465.441 356.922 259.754 190.627 121.064     NA
45  2016-12-19 459.958 353.672 245.740 189.699 120.178     NA
46  2016-12-20 455.637 349.491 239.921 188.842 118.478     NA
47  2016-12-21 457.247 354.773 242.526 192.602 120.387     NA
48  2016-12-22 455.677 354.440 242.844 192.268 119.315     NA
49  2016-12-23 450.576 350.232 242.519 185.680 116.959     NA
50  2016-12-24 451.227 348.979 242.999 184.549 117.588     NA
54  2016-12-28 441.679 344.331 263.571 191.997 131.242     NA
55  2016-12-29 421.046 335.952 259.757 190.053 128.975     NA
56  2016-12-30 415.450 332.656 259.389 188.998 129.264     NA
57  2016-12-31 416.460 325.910 257.339 189.067 129.926     NA
58  2017-01-01 413.726 314.338 254.204 179.641 126.463     NA
59  2017-01-02 418.539 316.359 256.055 182.729 126.015     NA
60  2017-01-03 432.326 327.710 269.044 198.078 137.582     NA
61  2017-01-04 446.816 338.461 279.204 206.389 144.252     NA
62  2017-01-05 486.127 375.202 304.280 231.203 163.482     NA
63  2017-01-06 484.347 370.700 302.361 228.994 164.244     NA
64  2017-01-07 485.521 366.816 305.205 230.407 163.620     NA
65  2017-01-08 495.591 372.692 311.941 237.911 167.047     NA
66  2017-01-09 519.563 374.982 324.167 254.269 180.608     NA
67  2017-01-10 567.249 417.205 359.825 290.075 215.397     NA
68  2017-01-11 616.577 469.126 397.200 332.841 254.551     NA
69  2017-01-12 640.569 499.399 415.099 362.995 276.033     NA
70  2017-01-13 640.866 498.846 412.495 362.309 275.565     NA
71  2017-01-14 630.699 496.256 411.186 358.612 274.392     NA
72  2017-01-15 627.520 496.129 408.836 356.027 274.062     NA
73  2017-01-16 623.722 496.409 408.102 354.759 274.163     NA
74  2017-01-17 610.047 496.333 406.321 353.415 273.997     NA
75  2017-01-18 608.699 484.253 406.484 352.661 273.989     NA
76  2017-01-19 603.688 480.622 405.843 351.621 273.568     NA
77  2017-01-20 596.014 465.433 409.611 353.706 276.119     NA
78  2017-01-21 579.394 466.691 412.970 355.749 278.593     NA
79  2017-01-22 580.387 467.145 418.143 356.994 282.610     NA
80  2017-01-23 595.615 479.469 435.192 369.839 295.548     NA
81  2017-01-24 631.228 511.109 471.191 403.292 328.490     NA
82  2017-01-25 629.751 494.728 472.923 402.832 326.928     NA
83  2017-01-26 631.352 493.301 475.821 396.651 323.860     NA
84  2017-01-27 628.690 491.438 472.397 385.148 323.291     NA
86  2017-01-29 622.307 495.196 449.581 383.737 313.560     NA
87  2017-01-30 618.823 496.169 441.882 378.082 313.414     NA
88  2017-01-31 602.234 479.982 416.159 361.368 297.326     NA
89  2017-02-01 595.145 473.646 400.833 354.441 293.030     NA
90  2017-02-02 593.488 464.703 395.163 350.956 291.947     NA
91  2017-02-03 596.420 465.190 396.601 346.877 294.812     NA
92  2017-02-04 600.262 463.665 387.640 346.428 297.261     NA
93  2017-02-05 605.759 467.436 390.992 348.614 300.550     NA
94  2017-02-06 620.233 482.585 405.019 361.168 314.300     NA
95  2017-02-07 645.866 508.454 431.367 386.096 340.082     NA
96  2017-02-08 664.277 532.945 456.081 407.626 360.021     NA
97  2017-02-09 667.320 543.507 466.543 412.759 368.858     NA
98  2017-02-10 677.021 547.743 475.682 421.776 379.808     NA
99  2017-02-11 706.038 570.748 497.281 443.333 401.916     NA
100 2017-02-12 703.070 577.396 499.467 449.398 401.890     NA
101 2017-02-13 700.049 575.634 498.424 444.457 400.324     NA
102 2017-02-14 684.191 573.327 487.860 434.585 396.294     NA
103 2017-02-15 664.763 560.024 472.087 417.672 383.063     NA
104 2017-02-16 665.448 559.988 473.417 419.794 379.922     NA
105 2017-02-17 665.408 556.989 473.844 419.260 377.440     NA
106 2017-02-18 664.841 544.581 465.280 414.905 378.015     NA
107 2017-02-19 658.225 541.524 459.361 417.509 374.733     NA
108 2017-02-20 653.108 561.178 475.980 432.318 384.069     NA
109 2017-02-21 660.373 580.911 495.274 446.687 401.018     NA
110 2017-02-22 673.125 595.366 510.098 460.579 412.553     NA
111 2017-02-23 688.769 625.238 531.164 488.861 438.097     NA
112 2017-02-24 693.328 638.679 542.522 501.234 445.062     NA
113 2017-02-25 695.560 632.981 539.554 495.503 445.122     NA
114 2017-02-26 697.402 630.941 537.282 493.819 444.412     NA
115 2017-02-27 706.313 630.854 538.951 501.526 441.792     NA
116 2017-02-28 730.141 653.150 556.086 524.583 447.867     NA
117 2017-03-01 731.869 652.601 557.248 522.243 449.791     NA
118 2017-03-02 733.399 648.318 557.595 521.748 451.284     NA
119 2017-03-03 732.816 643.531 556.874 519.319 451.758     NA
120 2017-03-04 728.653 630.710 557.583 515.179 452.401     NA
121 2017-03-05 721.148 621.629 552.243 505.330 442.738     NA
122 2017-03-06 719.788 619.684 540.071 495.777 439.879     NA
123 2017-03-07 747.282 635.413 560.655 510.542 460.612     NA
124 2017-03-08 749.802 637.181 559.402 514.855 465.663     NA
125 2017-03-09 695.760 629.362 548.873 512.118 458.821     NA
126 2017-03-10 686.557 623.220 547.879 510.004 458.174     NA
127 2017-03-11 680.704 615.924 544.432 501.353 454.910     NA
128 2017-03-12 662.938 598.782 540.493 495.202 451.165     NA
129 2017-03-13 665.628 602.161 535.850 496.175 451.913     NA
130 2017-03-14 658.182 597.590 521.935 485.404 443.287     NA
131 2017-03-15 652.109 595.530 516.033 481.189 440.553     NA
132 2017-03-16 651.541 592.821 515.826 476.841 443.584     NA
133 2017-03-17 661.458 601.371 520.930 481.812 454.790     NA
134 2017-03-18 662.551 601.411 518.619 480.278 450.796     NA
135 2017-03-19 670.503 607.391 522.900 483.513 454.599     NA
136 2017-03-20 682.001 619.946 523.268 492.815 457.663     NA
137 2017-03-21 666.863 603.989 515.073 482.569 449.146     NA
138 2017-03-22 666.888 596.177 512.512 479.205 448.302     NA
139 2017-03-23 695.379 627.789 542.895 504.016 477.344     NA
140 2017-03-24 706.828 640.511 550.115 524.177 490.032     NA
141 2017-03-25 703.026 635.548 548.956 522.611 492.441     NA
142 2017-03-26 711.706 632.668 555.714 522.628 499.369     NA
143 2017-03-27 721.085 637.697 561.372 524.091 501.614     NA
144 2017-03-28 757.344 671.454 601.502 559.953 533.728     NA
145 2017-03-29 749.485 649.149 581.654 545.308 522.619     NA
146 2017-03-30 748.559 641.627 580.171 539.853 526.827     NA
147 2017-03-31 769.772 665.125 610.822 565.310 556.834     NA
148 2017-04-01 758.894 678.049 625.293 575.658 568.707     NA
149 2017-04-02 750.320 675.798 617.657 574.533 562.205   7.49
150 2017-04-03 722.924 664.598 605.488 570.712 551.138  14.97
151 2017-04-04 722.453 656.958 607.272 579.078 555.516  22.46
152 2017-04-05 720.644 649.401 606.548 576.622 556.402  29.70
153 2017-04-06 737.116 664.066 622.438 588.184 563.467  36.90
154 2017-04-07 735.681 658.389 620.783 587.443 553.978  43.95
155 2017-04-08 743.622 671.133 628.704 594.971 558.773  50.99
156 2017-04-09 782.896 709.223 663.900 636.804 602.579  57.64
157 2017-04-10 758.829 688.057 647.444 609.584 585.387  64.14
158 2017-04-11 745.341 681.043 638.269 602.750 575.760  70.40
159 2017-04-12 735.475 675.958 637.680 600.595 560.022  76.35
160 2017-04-13 728.939 671.014 636.413 602.518 557.500  82.10
161 2017-04-14 709.458 652.804 623.369 590.744 544.994  87.56
162 2017-04-15 709.370 652.170 617.616 582.352 536.662  93.42
163 2017-04-16 706.113 647.362 613.185 580.221 532.346  99.18
164 2017-04-17 707.038 648.482 611.051 577.248 530.102 104.73
165 2017-04-18 694.227 644.194 596.549 566.445 524.914 110.29
166 2017-04-19 699.364 666.883 605.561 577.548 540.183 115.85
167 2017-04-20 697.916 659.671 601.249 574.786 538.102 121.30
168 2017-04-21 704.570 663.785 609.662 581.823 537.073 126.76
169 2017-04-22 704.479 659.307 611.242 580.875 531.872 132.27
170 2017-04-23 700.278 648.918 601.762 574.346 527.972 137.77
171 2017-04-24 696.085 639.293 594.758 566.956 521.472 143.33
172 2017-04-25 714.823 655.250 612.038 587.629 541.693 148.89
173 2017-04-26 697.883 642.126 594.829 575.664 535.430 154.34
174 2017-04-27 711.668 662.874 608.248 589.276 555.972 159.80
175 2017-04-28 711.502 662.392 608.338 592.258 561.305 165.36
176 2017-04-29 717.523 676.095 621.237 601.757 573.967 170.91
177 2017-04-30 699.156 665.375 612.032 593.773 566.787 176.47
178 2017-05-01 687.338 644.703 609.869 589.244 567.473 181.97
179 2017-05-02 674.593 641.526 610.865 588.444 566.576 187.33
181 2017-05-04 671.806 627.549 604.875 588.588 561.995 197.45
182 2017-05-05 656.419 621.174 600.611 582.864 555.085 202.21
183 2017-05-06 636.687 595.017 581.560 565.196 536.619 206.81
184 2017-05-07 622.371 591.119 575.443 561.650 537.161 211.39
185 2017-05-08 612.929 584.804 568.377 550.969 532.580 215.99
186 2017-05-09 615.402 588.142 567.830 551.538 531.022 220.65
187 2017-05-10 611.331 579.804 565.816 540.822 527.479 225.41
188 2017-05-11 604.847 569.581 558.955 535.806 523.452 230.37
189 2017-05-12 578.463 552.674 538.771 521.592 507.716 235.88
190 2017-05-13 574.933 552.359 537.891 522.127 508.129 241.58
191 2017-05-14 570.533 552.376 533.108 522.587 511.524 247.54
192 2017-05-15 566.743 548.489 526.973 518.959 508.294 253.49
193 2017-05-16 565.257 545.108 523.430 517.438 507.139 259.55
194 2017-05-17 570.538 551.521 529.755 521.816 510.952 266.00
195 2017-05-18 565.766 554.554 530.816 524.532 513.319 272.60
196 2017-05-19 571.288 554.667 536.754 529.398 518.409 279.01
197 2017-05-20 285.900 266.229 249.092 242.541 229.772     NA
198 2017-05-21 277.070 252.019 240.998 231.959 220.520     NA
199 2017-05-22 265.017 243.279 233.589 222.850 215.871     NA
200 2017-05-23 258.661 235.266 227.514 216.876 208.676     NA
201 2017-05-24 249.532 227.788 219.493 209.214 200.998     NA
202 2017-05-25 244.007 222.839 216.132 206.296 198.702     NA
203 2017-05-26 246.164 226.025 215.895 207.994 201.946     NA
204 2017-05-27 241.650 219.830 211.373 204.885 197.408     NA
205 2017-05-28 237.202 215.478 204.932 199.260 193.415     NA
206 2017-05-29 229.074 205.493 195.382 190.147 185.567     NA
207 2017-05-30 223.176 199.295 189.658 184.143 180.756     NA
209 2017-06-01 530.238 513.257 505.755 499.420 497.209 323.10
210 2017-06-02 531.324 512.840 507.295 501.834 499.486 328.07
211 2017-06-03 528.227 510.867 508.102 501.821 499.903 332.83
212 2017-06-04 524.523 510.266 506.827 501.295 498.665 337.50
213 2017-06-05 516.085 503.868 499.685 495.932 493.284 341.82
214 2017-06-06 513.419 504.584 499.322 496.110 494.069 346.11
215 2017-06-07 512.431 503.931 498.856 495.564 494.085 350.43
216 2017-06-08 514.295 507.402 502.708 499.696 498.441 354.80
217 2017-06-09 511.881 506.017 501.259 498.863 497.414 359.12
219 2017-06-11 507.843 502.736 499.734 496.698 495.521 367.66
220 2017-06-12 506.483 500.130 497.914 495.033 493.642 372.05
221 2017-06-13 509.396 502.291 500.960 498.344 497.067 376.44
222 2017-06-14 508.313 502.062 500.355 498.096 496.872 380.77
223 2017-06-15 506.167 500.397 498.590 496.364 495.116 385.20
224 2017-06-16 504.470 497.614 495.744 493.636 492.120 389.57
225 2017-06-17 501.465 497.386 494.999 493.550 492.123 393.84
226 2017-06-18 498.038 494.992 492.830 491.816 490.305 398.01
227 2017-06-19 496.406 493.835 491.871 490.884 489.537 402.04
228 2017-06-20 494.552 492.256 490.287 489.328 488.110 405.96
229 2017-06-21 493.043 491.077 489.237 488.056 486.912 409.78
230 2017-06-22 486.079 484.950 482.926 482.027 480.911 413.55
231 2017-06-23 482.019 481.242 479.576 478.486 477.916 417.12
232 2017-06-24 481.758 480.158 479.263 478.297 477.781 420.50
233 2017-06-25 480.996 479.275 478.019 477.602 476.706 423.49
234 2017-06-26 480.914 478.612 477.367 476.924 475.992 426.29
235 2017-06-27 478.816 477.211 476.595 475.949 475.250 428.88
236 2017-06-28 478.449 476.904 476.155 475.624 475.075 431.36
237 2017-06-29 476.865 476.350 475.575 474.962 474.520 433.60
238 2017-06-30 476.351 475.469 474.893 474.527 474.111 435.85
239 2017-07-01 475.505 474.587 474.139 473.820 473.574 437.94
240 2017-07-02 474.763 473.913 473.563 473.236 473.016 440.05
241 2017-07-03 473.992 473.410 473.190 472.845 472.656 442.15
242 2017-07-04 472.785 472.578 472.432 472.105 471.909 444.19
243 2017-07-05 472.762 472.526 472.382 472.091 471.928 446.20
244 2017-07-06 472.929 472.707 472.562 472.287 472.147 448.09
245 2017-07-07 473.199 472.937 472.813 472.595 472.436 449.98
246 2017-07-08 473.608 473.413 473.246 473.045 472.877 451.87
247 2017-07-09  20.306  20.136  19.994  19.817  19.631     NA
248 2017-07-10  18.994  18.852  18.716  18.567  18.359     NA
249 2017-07-11  17.938  17.710  17.583  17.463  17.265     NA
250 2017-07-12  16.819  16.613  16.511  16.407  16.226     NA
251 2017-07-13  15.825  15.572  15.473  15.375  15.221     NA
252 2017-07-14  14.808  14.509  14.440  14.340  14.216     NA
253 2017-07-15  13.905  13.578  13.517  13.429  13.333     NA
254 2017-07-16  13.024  12.695  12.644  12.560  12.483     NA
255 2017-07-17  12.186  11.846  11.825  11.752  11.690     NA
256 2017-07-18  11.277  10.974  10.946  10.909  10.853     NA
257 2017-07-19  10.432  10.145  10.126  10.089  10.059     NA
258 2017-07-20   9.466   9.174   9.155   9.137   9.120     NA
259 2017-07-21   8.579   8.390   8.368   8.362   8.356     NA
260 2017-07-22   7.552   7.490   7.482   7.475   7.473     NA
261 2017-07-23   6.762   6.695   6.688   6.685   6.683     NA
262 2017-07-24   5.957   5.915   5.909   5.907   5.907     NA
263 2017-07-25   5.402   5.358   5.354   5.353   5.353     NA
264 2017-07-26   4.489   4.487   4.486   4.486   4.486     NA
265 2017-07-27   3.662   3.661   3.661   3.661   3.661     NA
266 2017-07-28   2.918   2.918   2.918   2.918   2.918     NA
267 2017-07-29   2.177   2.177   2.177   2.177   2.177     NA
268 2017-07-30   1.480   1.480   1.480   1.480   1.480     NA
269 2017-07-31   0.717   0.717   0.717   0.717   0.717     NA
p10=10% exceedance, etc., Obs=Included Observed

Maximum of 619.6 in 2011, Minimum of 3.3 in 1934, Average/Median for 1981-2010 is 182/117.
ESP forecasts in the Observed Period w/o observed values are not total runoff.