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STDI1 Water Supply Forecasts

  Plot   Forecasts   Observations   Historical   Annual/Official Verification   Reforcast Verification   

Water Year:     2013   2014   2015   2016   2017   
2017 Runoff Forecast Apr-Jul Includes 5 Day Precipitation Forecast
Bear - Montpelier- Nr- Stewart Dam- Blo (STDI1)

Official Forecasts
  Forecast Date Max  30  MP  70 Min
1      2017-1-1 465 350 290 220 155
2      2017-2-1 625 480 410 360 295
3      2017-3-1 730 630 555 510 440
4      2017-4-1 760 680 600 575 530
5      2017-5-1 665 625 600 580 550
6      2017-6-1 570 535 505 475 460
MP=Most Probable

ESP Forecasts - 5 Days
      Run Date     p10     p30     p50     p70     p90    Obs
35  2016-12-09 425.224 305.284 228.866 168.536 122.991     NA
36  2016-12-10 432.214 312.680 235.305 174.914 119.572     NA
37  2016-12-11 447.283 328.702 247.169 179.104 115.919     NA
38  2016-12-12 449.097 331.235 243.372 179.057 115.658     NA
39  2016-12-13 477.877 359.286 264.899 191.627 127.939     NA
40  2016-12-14 465.985 358.516 255.766 189.885 123.428     NA
41  2016-12-15 471.047 360.975 248.827 193.900 124.130     NA
42  2016-12-16 467.124 359.302 245.534 193.600 122.891     NA
43  2016-12-17 467.053 360.943 247.087 195.502 123.897     NA
44  2016-12-18 466.355 363.378 251.735 195.719 124.916     NA
45  2016-12-19 464.539 358.019 249.847 189.785 121.754     NA
46  2016-12-20 472.417 367.887 256.396 195.311 126.919     NA
47  2016-12-21 470.656 367.844 263.563 200.979 132.675     NA
48  2016-12-22 470.495 360.417 273.291 204.743 140.020     NA
49  2016-12-23 455.759 355.069 270.206 200.134 136.329     NA
50  2016-12-24 447.512 348.377 272.531 200.506 138.461     NA
54  2016-12-28 420.639 318.699 256.527 182.990 128.196     NA
55  2016-12-29 423.571 315.022 254.333 186.300 128.804     NA
56  2016-12-30 411.113 308.919 252.597 184.417 128.261     NA
57  2016-12-31 420.900 316.889 259.462 189.239 132.627     NA
58  2017-01-01 420.372 314.787 256.982 188.581 134.431     NA
59  2017-01-02 443.525 331.456 272.893 202.327 143.960     NA
60  2017-01-03 466.850 350.801 291.663 219.319 156.056     NA
61  2017-01-04 500.324 366.562 313.677 239.595 169.712     NA
62  2017-01-05 532.356 386.068 335.927 264.824 191.083     NA
63  2017-01-06 546.880 403.097 336.674 274.492 202.936     NA
64  2017-01-07 568.216 436.011 358.700 303.442 222.328     NA
65  2017-01-08 589.784 451.464 363.868 319.488 236.212     NA
66  2017-01-09 599.532 457.270 371.363 326.108 243.714     NA
67  2017-01-10 616.204 483.431 398.289 346.283 264.430     NA
68  2017-01-11 625.963 497.747 408.621 357.998 276.971     NA
69  2017-01-12 615.760 501.154 411.370 358.000 278.895     NA
70  2017-01-13 609.074 484.484 406.395 353.128 275.067     NA
71  2017-01-14 605.154 484.345 406.292 352.367 274.270     NA
72  2017-01-15 602.885 477.038 415.661 360.320 282.678     NA
73  2017-01-16 583.103 465.417 410.986 355.648 278.367     NA
74  2017-01-17 584.559 472.960 420.510 360.653 286.311     NA
75  2017-01-18 587.591 473.069 425.659 364.772 290.308     NA
76  2017-01-19 606.719 490.259 449.210 383.860 310.773     NA
77  2017-01-20 600.808 472.445 440.682 377.606 304.924     NA
78  2017-01-21 614.560 476.685 459.503 383.703 314.535     NA
79  2017-01-22 618.030 480.833 462.141 380.475 316.920     NA
80  2017-01-23 623.652 487.808 463.771 380.262 319.551     NA
81  2017-01-24 619.767 492.874 446.127 382.257 313.805     NA
82  2017-01-25 612.512 489.328 439.376 375.678 307.974     NA
83  2017-01-26 611.941 491.650 426.877 373.736 310.144     NA
84  2017-01-27 608.349 485.951 413.273 368.746 306.217     NA
86  2017-01-29 612.529 483.845 412.429 363.276 311.094     NA
87  2017-01-30 628.132 492.158 416.950 375.237 325.630     NA
88  2017-01-31 624.419 487.528 409.099 368.060 319.630     NA
89  2017-02-01 616.630 479.843 402.920 358.672 313.230     NA
90  2017-02-02 631.528 493.078 416.291 372.479 325.558     NA
91  2017-02-03 654.765 520.737 447.208 399.519 351.296     NA
92  2017-02-04 628.430 502.814 429.978 378.892 333.333     NA
93  2017-02-05 632.468 513.124 438.726 385.408 340.957     NA
94  2017-02-06 706.908 582.258 505.828 449.394 410.124     NA
95  2017-02-07 720.426 606.746 523.871 472.943 423.284     NA
96  2017-02-08 714.865 594.634 517.489 465.654 417.003     NA
97  2017-02-09 696.551 585.923 506.146 453.020 407.693     NA
98  2017-02-10 676.345 577.519 490.366 440.755 401.578     NA
99  2017-02-11 662.503 559.223 475.316 420.091 385.621     NA
100 2017-02-12 670.496 563.006 479.685 421.906 381.433     NA
101 2017-02-13 680.411 562.513 487.965 429.305 392.120     NA
102 2017-02-14 671.679 556.218 465.875 420.876 384.356     NA
103 2017-02-15 621.469 541.922 458.260 417.757 369.825     NA
104 2017-02-16 627.804 559.381 475.807 427.223 385.054     NA
105 2017-02-17 648.198 577.490 490.626 443.499 399.151     NA
106 2017-02-18 661.108 599.310 507.347 462.171 417.195     NA
107 2017-02-19 670.096 613.120 520.756 478.507 422.562     NA
108 2017-02-20 686.840 625.074 532.456 487.846 435.469     NA
109 2017-02-21 679.886 615.282 518.625 478.491 430.052     NA
110 2017-02-22 690.470 614.774 520.854 488.570 424.472     NA
111 2017-02-23 707.947 639.153 541.328 511.316 436.769     NA
112 2017-02-24 702.894 634.255 536.813 507.048 428.580     NA
113 2017-02-25 701.541 628.035 533.632 501.495 428.370     NA
114 2017-02-26 709.381 627.250 537.891 502.925 432.195     NA
115 2017-02-27 724.559 626.874 547.711 508.575 442.026     NA
116 2017-02-28 730.785 632.068 556.913 510.070 450.667     NA
117 2017-03-01 739.200 634.179 550.449 505.264 443.315     NA
118 2017-03-02 769.657 649.608 570.414 530.225 470.442     NA
119 2017-03-03 760.445 637.151 563.560 522.460 464.318     NA
120 2017-03-04 736.021 634.324 559.687 521.482 466.132     NA
121 2017-03-05 697.354 633.926 556.780 521.145 465.123     NA
122 2017-03-06 694.011 636.910 557.716 513.908 469.288     NA
123 2017-03-07 682.864 625.353 557.350 510.471 467.832     NA
124 2017-03-08 682.906 625.495 556.645 512.391 470.580     NA
125 2017-03-09 675.013 618.064 539.753 503.789 452.507     NA
126 2017-03-10 668.108 612.243 532.683 496.969 445.183     NA
127 2017-03-11 660.887 602.229 525.578 484.346 441.418     NA
128 2017-03-12 658.415 595.715 518.893 476.144 440.355     NA
129 2017-03-13 659.470 596.408 510.841 470.191 441.154     NA
130 2017-03-14 644.384 593.504 501.386 463.453 436.843     NA
131 2017-03-15 639.805 588.193 493.384 460.270 434.807     NA
132 2017-03-16 649.037 594.130 498.563 466.641 438.508     NA
133 2017-03-17 661.320 597.674 508.405 473.315 443.686     NA
134 2017-03-18 672.207 606.155 514.724 481.152 453.638     NA
135 2017-03-19 682.315 610.583 518.012 491.278 460.092     NA
136 2017-03-20 693.518 616.002 532.164 507.740 477.475     NA
137 2017-03-21 691.885 620.811 538.192 511.603 482.994     NA
138 2017-03-22 716.696 629.301 558.321 523.187 501.868     NA
139 2017-03-23 724.116 632.841 567.533 527.627 506.888     NA
140 2017-03-24 728.674 633.927 567.977 538.842 511.956     NA
141 2017-03-25 719.178 623.220 559.516 523.222 507.565     NA
142 2017-03-26 729.429 629.921 572.585 536.221 527.230     NA
143 2017-03-27 749.558 668.265 614.550 573.410 563.950     NA
144 2017-03-28 750.249 678.705 627.501 578.970 572.930     NA
145 2017-03-29 727.390 678.136 614.065 573.414 559.140     NA
146 2017-03-30 742.739 671.036 628.316 593.589 574.856     NA
147 2017-03-31 719.895 645.525 603.525 572.925 557.111     NA
148 2017-04-01 715.075 642.963 603.186 574.119 546.150     NA
149 2017-04-02 716.687 643.173 603.319 571.847 538.281   7.49
150 2017-04-03 712.069 643.724 604.473 572.860 531.687  14.97
151 2017-04-04 743.089 672.218 637.029 605.584 564.328  22.46
152 2017-04-05 793.340 721.214 685.925 656.559 619.825  29.70
153 2017-04-06 792.902 721.859 684.882 646.218 618.279  36.90
154 2017-04-07 775.401 713.654 674.349 634.690 600.856  43.95
155 2017-04-08 765.653 697.822 666.124 624.344 581.963  50.99
156 2017-04-09 751.165 690.263 655.814 619.353 578.461  57.64
157 2017-04-10 737.112 673.828 641.428 602.276 563.189  64.14
158 2017-04-11 722.792 661.310 620.629 589.825 538.828  70.40
159 2017-04-12 722.204 663.505 620.535 589.344 539.748  76.35
160 2017-04-13 721.423 668.212 613.041 584.900 544.256  82.10
161 2017-04-14 695.845 659.136 602.505 576.636 542.580  87.56
162 2017-04-15 708.918 665.316 612.311 583.670 553.726  93.42
163 2017-04-16 705.245 663.554 614.247 586.842 549.983  99.18
164 2017-04-17 710.036 668.137 622.042 591.843 551.740 104.73
165 2017-04-18 707.602 655.063 611.997 589.436 545.047 110.29
166 2017-04-19 704.052 649.470 602.710 580.595 537.843 115.85
167 2017-04-20 711.095 655.538 611.617 589.439 544.438 121.30
168 2017-04-21 696.284 649.033 602.739 585.400 544.029 126.76
169 2017-04-22 721.877 672.527 619.315 604.570 567.093 132.27
170 2017-04-23 723.215 673.872 621.546 609.417 571.941 137.77
171 2017-04-24 739.567 694.160 639.925 625.829 591.529 143.33
172 2017-04-25 709.941 682.010 625.386 613.826 582.204 148.89
173 2017-04-26 681.953 660.048 611.959 598.222 569.117 154.34
174 2017-04-27 682.968 648.762 612.322 595.856 572.378 159.80
175 2017-04-28 680.143 642.760 610.471 595.655 575.106 165.36
176 2017-04-29 678.503 634.151 608.047 589.231 569.905 170.91
177 2017-04-30 665.852 626.405 599.118 583.188 561.998 176.47
178 2017-05-01 658.234 620.023 592.554 578.013 553.584 181.97
179 2017-05-02 638.756 607.962 590.902 580.582 553.765 187.33
181 2017-05-04 633.445 606.863 590.226 574.902 554.075 197.45
182 2017-05-05 648.184 621.279 600.269 580.385 563.606 202.21
183 2017-05-06 634.622 597.523 586.648 567.337 553.431 206.81
184 2017-05-07 619.636 591.246 576.695 560.311 549.120 211.39
185 2017-05-08 602.717 583.428 568.842 553.704 541.029 215.99
186 2017-05-09 587.344 568.483 549.380 539.504 527.193 220.65
187 2017-05-10 580.477 564.866 542.091 533.962 523.339 225.41
188 2017-05-11 576.507 559.706 537.908 531.161 520.419 230.37
189 2017-05-12 567.220 548.727 528.996 520.529 510.006 235.88
190 2017-05-13 579.175 562.860 539.832 533.563 523.002 241.58
191 2017-05-14 578.815 563.958 542.046 536.566 525.882 247.54
192 2017-05-15 577.855 564.176 544.760 537.564 524.185 253.49
193 2017-05-16 574.689 554.769 540.417 533.344 519.635 259.55
194 2017-05-17 564.635 543.692 531.492 523.643 514.132 266.00
195 2017-05-18 560.096 537.000 529.750 520.325 511.689 272.60
196 2017-05-19 564.967 543.829 536.031 527.312 519.756 279.01
197 2017-05-20 272.088 253.581 246.566 238.460 230.750     NA
198 2017-05-21 261.794 241.246 235.101 227.601 221.107     NA
199 2017-05-22 257.912 236.053 225.768 221.342 215.953     NA
200 2017-05-23 252.988 230.684 219.886 216.975 211.796     NA
201 2017-05-24 246.030 223.847 212.136 208.196 204.911     NA
202 2017-05-25 243.050 217.605 208.372 204.593 200.794     NA
203 2017-05-26 244.335 218.991 212.134 207.224 204.730     NA
204 2017-05-27 233.481 211.890 205.035 199.630 196.833     NA
205 2017-05-28 225.728 205.093 200.226 195.134 192.906     NA
206 2017-05-29 215.483 196.008 192.678 187.467 184.968     NA
207 2017-05-30 207.880 189.880 186.727 182.762 179.693     NA
209 2017-06-01 516.510 506.283 501.968 498.692 496.237 323.10
210 2017-06-02 517.010 506.937 502.750 499.669 497.660 328.07
211 2017-06-03 514.413 506.940 502.779 499.565 498.358 332.83
212 2017-06-04 513.504 506.943 502.054 499.402 497.712 337.50
213 2017-06-05 507.974 499.511 496.239 494.201 492.524 341.82
214 2017-06-06 506.088 499.664 497.088 494.735 492.922 346.11
215 2017-06-07 505.224 498.822 496.194 494.115 492.418 350.43
216 2017-06-08 511.252 504.376 502.400 499.946 498.536 354.80
217 2017-06-09 510.954 503.916 502.908 500.872 499.163 359.12
219 2017-06-11 508.536 501.912 500.067 498.192 496.919 367.66
220 2017-06-12 503.895 499.741 497.918 496.063 494.769 372.05
221 2017-06-13 506.269 502.430 500.306 499.003 498.082 376.44
222 2017-06-14 503.272 500.874 498.883 497.590 496.670 380.77
223 2017-06-15 501.091 499.177 497.163 495.994 495.150 385.20
224 2017-06-16 499.266 496.167 494.584 493.387 492.121 389.57
225 2017-06-17 497.642 495.887 494.426 493.078 491.939 393.84
226 2017-06-18 495.682 493.913 492.571 491.536 490.044 398.01
227 2017-06-19 494.462 492.462 491.530 490.132 489.286 402.04
228 2017-06-20 493.040 490.657 489.853 488.565 487.888 405.96
229 2017-06-21 491.460 489.601 488.686 487.298 486.540 409.78
230 2017-06-22 484.577 483.588 482.129 481.186 480.252 413.55
231 2017-06-23 481.356 479.577 478.722 478.039 477.259 417.12
232 2017-06-24 481.048 479.807 478.473 478.063 477.364 420.50
233 2017-06-25 479.950 478.440 477.561 477.128 476.475 423.49
234 2017-06-26 479.008 477.689 477.024 476.614 475.902 426.29
235 2017-06-27 478.084 476.653 476.089 475.699 475.297 428.88
236 2017-06-28 476.851 476.142 475.646 475.373 475.046 431.36
237 2017-06-29 476.029 475.541 475.098 474.769 474.462 433.60
238 2017-06-30 475.494 475.014 474.658 474.342 474.077 435.85
239 2017-07-01 474.895 474.388 474.107 473.815 473.549 437.94
240 2017-07-02 474.253 473.770 473.528 473.211 472.981 440.05
241 2017-07-03 473.595 473.375 473.160 472.838 472.625 442.15
242 2017-07-04 472.782 472.494 472.382 472.093 471.909 444.19
243 2017-07-05 472.748 472.478 472.371 472.100 471.930 446.20
244 2017-07-06 472.923 472.655 472.527 472.273 472.145 448.09
245 2017-07-07 473.185 472.902 472.796 472.568 472.428 449.98
246 2017-07-08 473.596 473.340 473.244 473.040 472.863 451.87
247 2017-07-09  20.333  20.130  20.008  19.828  19.621     NA
248 2017-07-10  18.972  18.820  18.717  18.570  18.365     NA
249 2017-07-11  17.853  17.682  17.546  17.457  17.265     NA
250 2017-07-12  16.800  16.571  16.468  16.394  16.220     NA
251 2017-07-13  15.819  15.540  15.457  15.370  15.225     NA
252 2017-07-14  14.812  14.476  14.438  14.338  14.219     NA
253 2017-07-15  13.904  13.555  13.515  13.428  13.337     NA
254 2017-07-16  13.044  12.673  12.646  12.573  12.498     NA
255 2017-07-17  11.931  11.837  11.808  11.753  11.699     NA
256 2017-07-18  11.012  10.971  10.931  10.902  10.857     NA
257 2017-07-19  10.171  10.132  10.114  10.101  10.067     NA
258 2017-07-20   9.201   9.172   9.162   9.153   9.140     NA
259 2017-07-21   8.367   8.363   8.360   8.358   8.356     NA
260 2017-07-22   7.483   7.482   7.481   7.481   7.481     NA
261 2017-07-23   6.691   6.690   6.690   6.690   6.690     NA
262 2017-07-24   5.916   5.915   5.915   5.915   5.915     NA
263 2017-07-25   5.361   5.361   5.361   5.361   5.361     NA
264 2017-07-26   4.486   4.486   4.486   4.486   4.486     NA
265 2017-07-27   3.661   3.661   3.661   3.661   3.661     NA
266 2017-07-28   2.918   2.918   2.918   2.918   2.918     NA
267 2017-07-29   2.177   2.177   2.177   2.177   2.177     NA
268 2017-07-30   1.480   1.480   1.480   1.480   1.480     NA
269 2017-07-31   0.717   0.717   0.717   0.717   0.717     NA
p10=10% exceedance, etc., Obs=Included Observed

Maximum of 619.6 in 2011, Minimum of 3.3 in 1934, Average/Median for 1981-2010 is 182/117.
ESP forecasts in the Observed Period w/o observed values are not total runoff.