SHORT COURSE

 

Hydrologic Prediction and Verification Techniques with a Focus on Water Supply

 

OrganizerS

Marina Timofeyeva, Andy Wood, Kevin Werner, Barbara Brown, Thomas Adams, David Bright

 

AMS Hydrology Committee, SPONSOR

Bart Nijssen, Chair

 

AMS Committee on Probability and Statistics, SPONSOR

Richard W. Katz, Chair

 

financial support provided by

NOAA/NWS Office of Hydrologic Development

NOAA/NWS Western Region Headquarters

 

SUNDAY, 23 JANUARY 2011

 

7:30 - 8:15       REGISTRATION

 

8:15 – 8:45      COURSE INTRODUCTION:  OVERVIEW OF HYDROLOGIC FORECASTING PRACTICES AND WATER SUPPLY – Kevin Werner , NOAA/NWS Colorado Basin River Forecast Center (CBRFC), Salt Lake City, UT [pptx | pdf]

 

8:45 – 10:00    STATISTICAL FORECASTING FOR HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION – Gus Goodbody and David Garen, USDA/NRCS National Water and Climate Center, Portland, OR [pptx | pdf]

 

10:00 – 10:15  BREAK

 

10:15– 11:00   STATISTICAL FORECASTING IN HYDROLOGIC PREDICTIONS, continued – Gus Goodbody and David Garen, USDA/NRCS National Water and Climate Center, Portland, OR

 

11:00 – 11:30  ENSEMBLE STREAMFLOW PREDICTION (ESP) INTRODUCTION – Kevin Berghoff, NOAA/NWS Northwest River Forecast Center (NWRFC), Portland, OR [pptx | pdf]

 

11:30 – 12:00  ESP:  VERIFICATION AND RECENT ADVANCES – Julie Demargne and James Brown, NOAA/NWS Office of Hydrologic Development, Silver Spring, MD [pptx | pdf]

 

12:00 – 1:00    LUNCH (provided)

 

1:00 – 2:30      HANDS ON ESP EXERCISES – ALL, led by CBRFC and NWRFC [pdf]

 

2:30 – 3:00      INTRO TO RISK BASED DECISION–MAKING FOR WATER SUPPLY:  BPA CASE STUDIES – Travis Togo, BPA [pptx | pdf]

 

3:00 – 3:15      BREAK

 

3:15 – 4:15      SCENARIO EXERCISES FOR RISK BASED DECISION MAKING – ALL, led by Kristen Averty, WWA and Kevin Werner, CBRFC

 

4:15 – 5:00      WESTERN WATER SUPPLY FORECASTING AND CLIMATE CHANGE – Levi Brekke, Bureau of Reclamation Technical Service Center, Denver, CO [pptx | pdf]

 

5:00                 ADJOURN