The following conditions influenced this month's forecasts:

Precipitation:
Seasonal October-December precipitation ranged from 110 to 130 percent of average in the Salt River Basin and 100 to 120 percent of average in the Verde River Basin.

December precipitation was 165 percent of average in the Salt River Basin, and near 200 percent in the Verde River Basin.

Streamflow:
December streamflow was near 80 percent of median on the Salt River and 120% of median on the Verde River.

Snow:
January 1st snowpack conditions were 130 percent of average in the Verde River Basin and 135 percent of average in the Salt River Basin.

Salt River Basin Snow Plot.
Verde River Basin Snow Plot.

Soil Moisture:
Modeled soil moisture states are near average at this time.

Climate Forecasts:
La Nina climate conditions suggest decreased chances for precipitation in this area. The La Nina influence was accounted for in generation of these forecasts.

Forecast Summary:
Despite above average seasonal precipitation, and above average January 1st snowpack, La Nina climate conditions suggest below average precipitation over the next few months. Forecast volumes are near 83 percent of median in the Tonto, 89 percent of median in the Verde River Basin and 81 percent of median in the Salt River Basin.

The following conditions influenced this month's forecasts:

Precipitation:
Seasonal October-December precipitation was 90 percent of average in the southern portions and up to 130 percent of average in the headwaters.

December precipitation ranged from 75 percent of average in the southern portions to greater than 150 percent of average in the headwaters.

Streamflow:
Minimal streamflow observations exist for December. December volume on the Gila River into San Carlos Reservoir was near 70 percent of median.

Snow:
Basin snowpack conditions were near 280 percent of average in San Francisco Basin and 185 percent of average in the upper Gila Basin. The overall Basin average was 165 percent of average.

Upper Gila Basin Snow Plot.
San Francisco Basin Snow Plot

Soil Moisture:
Modeled soil moisture states are near average at this time.

Climate Forecasts:
La Nina climate conditions suggest decreased chances for precipitation in this area. The La Nina influence was accounted for in generation of these forecasts.

Forecast Summary:
Although snowpack was above average for January 1st, the presence of La Nina climate conditions suggest below average precipitation into the spring. Forecast volumes range from 83 to 89 percent of median.

The following conditions influenced this month's forecasts:

Precipitation:
Seasonal October-December precipitation varied from near 90 percent of average over the eastern portions to 125 percent of average over the Mogollon Rim.

December precipitation ranged from 85 percent of average over the east to greater than 150 percent of average in the headwaters.

Streamflow:
Minimal streamflow observations exist for December. December volume on the Little Colorado near Lyman was near 40 percent of median.

Snow:
Basin snowpack conditions were near 160 percent of average in the southern Headwaters.

Little Colorado River Snow Plot
Central Mogollon Rim Snow Plot

Soil Moisture: Modeled soil moisture states are near average at this time.

Climate Forecasts:
La Nina climate conditions suggest decreased chances for precipitation in this area. The La Nina influence was accounted for in generation of these forecasts.

Forecast Summary:
Although snowpack was above average for January 1st, the presence of La Nina climate conditions suggest below average precipitation into the spring. Forecast volumes range from 70 to 74 percent of median.

Differences between the full period forecasts and the residual forecasts may not exactly equal the actual observed volumes due to rounding conventions (see Definitions section).