-Model Soil Moisture/Observed Streamflow...Soil moisture for most of the upper basins in the San Juan were below average in the fall. This was most likely due to limited monsoonal precipitation over the summer months. Observed streamflow for the month of December was mostly below average for the San Juan.

-Snowpack/Precipitation...Snowpack above Navajo Reservoir is currently 130 percent of average while the Animas was 135 percent. Precipitation over the San Juan Basin for December was much above average with 220 percent. Seasonal average precipitation for the San Juan Basin increased to 115 percent.

-Short Term Precipitation Forecast...The forecast models through next week keep the San Juan Basin relatively dry with near average temperatures.

-General Discussion...The current snowpack and statistical forecast suggest the April-July forecast of 115 to 120 percent of average. However, the ESP guidance suggests a forecast of around 110 percent of average due to lower than average soil moisture. The CPC guidance continues to show the possibility of increased chances of below average precipitation for January through March across the San Juan Basin.

Differences between the full period forecasts and the residual forecasts may not exactly equal the actual observed volumes due to rounding conventions (see Definitions section).