-Model Soil Moisture/Observed Streamflow...Soil moisture for most of the upper basins in the San Juan were below average last fall. This was most likely due to limited monsoonal precipitation over the summer months. Observed streamflow for the month of January was mostly below average for the San Juan.

-Snowpack/Precipitation...Snow water equivalents for the entire San Juan Basin on February 1st was 115 percent of average. Precipitation over the San Juan Basin for January was much below average with 55 percent. Seasonal precipitation for the San Juan Basin decreased to 105 percent of average.

-Short Term Precipitation Forecast...The forecast models through the end of the first week of February keep the San Juan Basin relatively dry.

-General Discussion...The CPC guidance has the possibility of above average precipitation and below normal temperatures for the second week of February. However, for February through April, CPC suggests a chance for below average preciptation. Due to the below average soil moiture in the upper basin this fall and the combination of current snowpack conditions and the CPC forecast, the median April-July forecast for the San Juan Basin is 110 percent of average.

Differences between the full period forecasts and the residual forecasts may not exactly equal the actual observed volumes due to rounding conventions (see Definitions section).