The following conditions influenced this month's forecasts:

Precipitation:
Seasonal October through January precipitation was near average. October was wet, while November through December experienced drier than average conditions.

January was dry with a basin average precipitation near 65 percent.

Snow:
February 1st snow water equivalent for the entire basin was near 75% of average.
Animas River Basin Snow Plot.

San Juan Basin (above Navajo Reservoir) Snow Plot.

Streamflow:
Streamflow volumes for January ranged from 60% of average at the Basin outlet to near 90% of average at higher elevations.

Soil Moisture:
Modeled soil moisture has been updated since January 1st and was near to above average at highest elevations entering the winter season. Below average soil moisture conditions existed over the southern half of the basin and in tributaries further downstream.

Climate Forecasts:
La Nina climate conditions exist and a weak to moderate La Nina episode is anticipated to continue through the winter season. The La Nina climate condition suggests drier than average conditions possible over the San Juan Basin. The La Nina climate condtion was considered when developing the forecasts.

Forecast Summary:
Seasonal precipitation is near average due to a wet October. Snowpack conditions are below average due to drier weather November through January. Soil Moisture varied entering the winter season, with near or slightly above average conditions in high elevations in the northern headwaters, and below average conditions elsewhere. La Nina climate conditions suggest below average precipitation is possible over the San Juan Basin through spring. April-July runoff volumes are expected to range from 75 to 90 percent of the 1981-2010 average.

Differences between the full period forecasts and the residual forecasts may not exactly equal the actual observed volumes due to rounding conventions (see Definitions section).