November modeled soil moisture indicated much below and below average conditions for most of Green River Basin. (Click for November 1st image) This signal is incorporated in the ESP model guidance utilized by the CBRFC to generate forecasts. At the time of this publication, seasonal precipitation is near normal for most of the region. However, April precipitation was much above average in the Upper Green, Duchense, and Lower Green river basins. Snowpack is past the seasonal peaks. Median April water supply forecasts increased in the Upper Green, Duchense, and Lower Green river basins and dropped slighty in the Yampa/White river basin.

-Model Soil Moisture/Observed Streamflow...The November soil moisture conditions were much below average in the Upper Green River basin. Observed streamflow for the month of April was 80 percent of average.

-Snowpack/Precipitation...In the Upper Green River basin, April precipitation was 155 percent of average. On May 1st, the basinwide snowpack was 95 percent of average.

-General Discussion...Weather models suggest no precipitation for the the next 5 days, and slightly above normal precipitation for the following 6-10 day period. Beyond that the 30 Day CPC guidance shows below average precipitation as likely. April through July guidance indicate below average to near average runoff volumes for points above Flaming Gorge.

-Model Soil Moisture/Observed Streamflow...Fall soil moisture estimates were near average in the headwaters of the Yampa and White River basin. Soil moisture deficits are not adversely effecting model guidance as much as in other regions. Observed streamflow for the month of April was 125 precent of average.

-Snowpack/Precipitation...On May 1st, the basinwide snowpack was 95 percent of average. April precipitation was 115 precent of average.

-General Discussion...Weather models suggest no precipitation for the the next 5 days, and normal precipitation for the following 6-10 day period. Beyond that the 30 Day CPC guidance shows equal chances for above, normal, or below average precipitation. April through July guidance indicate runoff volumes from average to much above average for the Yampa and White River basin.

-Model Soil Moisture/Observed Streamflow...Fall soil conditions in the Duchesne were similar to the Upper Green with many basins indicating much below average conditions. Observed streamflow for the month of April was average.

-Snowpack/Precipitation...The snowpack in the Duchesne River basin on May 1st was 75 percent of average. April precipitation was 170 percent of average.

-General Discussion...Weather models suggest no precipitation for the the next 5 days, and slightly above normal precipitation for the following 6-10 day period. Beyond that the 30 Day CPC guidance shows below average precipitation as likely. Forecasts range from average in the headwaters of the basin to below average at downstream locations.

-Model Soil Moisture/Observed Streamflow...The November soil moisture conditions were much below average in the Lower Green River basin and continues to drive lower model guidance. Observed streamflows for the months of February, March, and April were below average.

-Snowpack/Precipitation...The Lower Green River basin snowpack was 55 percent of average on May 1st. April precipitation was 155 percent of average.

-General Discussion...Weather models suggest no precipitation for the the next 5 days, and slightly above normal precipitation for the following 6-10 day period. Beyond that the 30 Day CPC guidance shows below average precipitation as likely. Forecasts range from below average to near average with the exception of Ferron Creek forecasted at much below average.

Differences between the full period forecasts and the residual forecasts may not exactly equal the actual observed volumes due to rounding conventions (see Definitions section).