Note: This publication is currently undergoing major revisions. The current publication will be replaced with a new publication based on stakeholder requirements and scientific advances. We expect to begin sharing details on this soon. If you have input on content, format, or publication frequency at any time, please contact us at cbrfc.webmasters@noaa.gov.Green Water Supply Outlook, February 1, 2010
The following conditions influenced this month's forecasts:
Precipitation:
Seasonal October through January precipitation was 70 percent of average
in the Upper Green basin. January precipitation was 65 percent of average.
Snow:
February 1st snow water equivalent was near 60 percent of average in the basin
as a whole.
--- Upper Green basin snow
water equivalent plot.
Streamflow:
January streamflow was near 90 percent of average.
Soil Moisture:
Modeled soil
moisture states ranged from below average to near average heading into the winter.
Climate Forecasts:
Climate forecasts were not a factor because there is not a strong correlation
between El Nino conditions and winter precipitation in the Upper Green basin.
Forecast Summary:
Due to below average seasonal precipitation to date and much below average
February 1st snow water equivalent values the April through July streamflow
volume forecasts are much below average at this time. These forecasts have dropped
and now range between 56 and 72 percent of average, with a median value of 65 percent.
The following conditions influenced this month's forecasts:
Precipitation:
Seasonal October through January precipitation was 85 percent of average
in the Yampa/White basin. January precipitation was 65 percent of average.
Snow:
February 1st snow water equivalent was 75 percent of average in the basin
as a whole.
--- Yampa basin snow
water equivalent plot.
Streamflow:
January streamflow was near 80 percent of average.
Soil Moisture:
Modeled soil
moisture states were near average heading into the winter for the Little Snake
and White River basins. Modeled states ranged from below average to near average
heading into winter for the Yampa basin.
Climate Forecasts:
Climate forecasts were not a factor because there is not a strong correlation
between El Nino conditions and winter precipitation in the Yampa/White basin.
Forecast Summary:
Due to below average seasonal precipitation to date and below average
February 1st snow water equivalent values the April through July streamflow
volume forecasts are below average at this time. These forecasts have dropped
slightly and now range between 68 and 79 percent of average, with a median value
of 80 percent.
The following conditions influenced this month's forecasts:
Precipitation:
Seasonal October through January precipitation was 80 percent of average
in the Duchesne basin. January precipitation was 100 percent of average.
Snow:
February 1st snow water equivalent was 80 percent of average in the basin
as a whole.
--- Duchesne basin snow
water equivalent plot.
Streamflow:
January streamflow was 100 percent of average.
Soil Moisture:
Modeled soil
moisture states were much below average to below average heading into the winter.
Climate Forecasts:
Climate forecasts were not a factor because there is not a strong correlation
between El Nino conditions and winter precipitation in the Duchesne basin.
Forecast Summary:
Due to below average seasonal precipitation to date and below average
February 1st snow water equivalent values the April through July streamflow
volume forecasts are below average at this time. These forecasts have incresed
slightly and now range between 64 and 86 percent of average, with a median value
of 80 percent.
The following conditions influenced this month's forecasts:
Precipitation:
Seasonal October through January precipitation was 75 percent of average
in the headwaters of the Lower Green basin. January precipitation was 80 percent of average.
Snow:
February 1st snow water equivalent was 85 percent of average in the basin
as a whole. However, the Price and San Rafael headwaters did not receive as much snow as those further to the south.
--- Price basin snow
water equivalent plot.
Streamflow:
January streamflow was near 75 percent of average.
Soil Moisture:
Modeled soil
moisture states were much below average heading into the winter.
Climate Forecasts:
Climate forecasts were not a factor because there is not a strong correlation
between El Nino conditions and winter precipitation in the Lower Green basin.
Forecast Summary:
Due to below average seasonal precipitation to date and below average
February 1st snow water equivalent values the April through July streamflow
volume forecasts are below average at this time. These forecasts have dropped
slightly and now range between 65 and 72 percent of average, with a median value
of 70 percent.
Differences between the full period forecasts and the residual forecasts may not exactly equal the actual observed volumes due to rounding conventions (see Definitions section).