Note: This publication is currently undergoing major revisions. The current publication will be replaced with a new publication based on stakeholder requirements and scientific advances. We expect to begin sharing details on this soon. If you have input on content, format, or publication frequency at any time, please contact us at cbrfc.webmasters@noaa.gov.Green Water Supply Outlook, April 1, 2009
November modeled soil moisture indicated much below and below average conditions for most of Green River Basin.
(Click for November 1st image) This signal is
incorporated in the ESP model guidance utilized by
the CBRFC in generating forecasts. At the time of this publication, seasonal precipitation is near normal for most of the region. However, March
precipitation was below average in the lower basin. Snowpack ranges from near average to below average in the major tributaries of the Green River. Median April water
supply forecasts essentially remained the same in the Upper Green and Yampa/White River basins and dropped slighty in the Duchesne and Lower Green River basins.
*Median of forecasts within each basin.
Upper Green Basin Conditions
-Model Soil Moisture/Observed Streamflow...The November soil
moisture conditions were much below average in the Upper Green River basin. Observed streamflow for the month of March was 55 percent of average.
-Snowpack/Precipitation...In the Upper Green River basin, March precipitation was 95 percent of average. On April 1st, the basinwide snowpack
was 90 percent of average.
-General Discussion...Weather models suggest slightly above normal precipitation for the next 8-14 days. Beyond that the 30 Day CPC guidance shows equal chances for
above, normal, or below average precipitation. April through July guidance indicate much below average to average runoff volumes for points above Flaming Gorge.
-Model Soil Moisture/Observed Streamflow...Fall soil moisture
estimates were near average in the headwaters of the Yampa and White River basin. Soil moisture deficits are not adversely effecting model guidance as much as in other regions. Observed streamflow for the month of March was average.
-Snowpack/Precipitation...Currently, the Yampa and White River basin has the highest snowpack conditions
within the Green River Basin. On April 1st, individual Snotel stations SWE values ranged from 80 to 145 percent of average. March precipitation was average.
-General Discussion...Weather models suggest slightly above normal precipitation for the next 8-14 days. Beyond that the 30 Day CPC guidance shows equal chances for above,
normal, or below average precipitation. April through July guidance indicate runoff volumes from average to above average for the Yampa and White River basin.
-Model Soil Moisture/Observed Streamflow...Fall soil conditions in the Duchesne were similar to the Upper Green with many basins indicating much below
average conditions. Observed streamflow for the months of February and March was below average.
-Snowpack/Precipitation...The snowpack
in the Duchesne River basin on April 1st was 80 percent of average, with most of the Snotel stations reporting below average conditions. March precipitation was 75 percent of average.
-General Discussion...Weather models suggest slightly above normal precipitation for the next 8-14 days. Beyond that the 30 Day CPC guidance shows equal chances for above,
normal, or below average precipitation. Forecasts range below average in the headwaters of the basin to much below average at downstream locations.
-Model Soil Moisture/Observed Streamflow...The November soil
moisture conditions were much below average in the Lower Green River basin and continues to drive lower model guidance. Observed streamflow for the months of February and March was below average.
-Snowpack/Precipitation...The Lower Green River basin
snowpack was 75 percent of average on April 1st. March precipitation was 80 percent of average.
-General Discussion...Weather models suggest slightly above normal precipitation for the next 8-14 days. Beyond that the 30 Day CPC guidance shows equal chances for above,
normal, or below average precipitation. Forecasts remain below average, with the exception of Ferron Creek forecasted at much below average.
Differences between the full period forecasts and the residual forecasts may not exactly equal the actual observed volumes due to rounding conventions (see Definitions section).