Dry conditions persisted through March with much of Arizona receiving monthly precipitation amounts between 10 and 45 percent of average. Seasonal precipitation remains near average in the Salt River Basin and along the western Arizona border, primarily due to a wet December. Elsewhere, seasonal precipitation has dropped to below average levels. Snowpack in Arizona remains only at highest elevations, with future melt contributing little to seasonal volumes. Streamflow was above average in the Little Colorado in March due to snow melt. Elsewhere throughout Arizona March streamflow volumes were below average.

Streams are in recession from the winter season, or already near baseflow. April-May is climatologically a drier period and typically streamflows do not increase much prior to the summer monsoon. Volumetric forecasts for the April-May period are expected to range from near 20 to 50 percent of median.

Model Soil Moisture/Observed Streamflow - Streamflow volumes in March were below average for the first time this winter. Some streams are flowing near baseflow at this time.

Snowpack/Precipitation - March precipitation amounts ranged from near 10 to 35 percent of average in the Salt, Verde, and Tonto Basins. Seasonal precipitation is near average. Only minimal snowpack remains at highest elevations of the Salt River Basin and is not a significant factor contributing to runoff expectations.

General Discussion/Forecasts - April-May is climatologically a drier period in Arizona prior to the summer monsoon. Streams are forecast to continue their recession or remain near their baseflow conditions. April-May volumes in the Salt, Verde, Tonto streams are forecast to be near 40 percent of median.

Model Soil Moisture/Observed Streamflow - Streamflow volumes in March in the Gila Basin ranged from near 20 to 40 percent of median. Several months of below average streamflow combined with below average precipitation suggest soil moisture deficits exist in this area.

Snowpack/Precipitation - Snowpack has been nearly depleted in the Gila Basin. March precipitation ranged from near 20 to 50 percent of average. Seasonal precipitation is near 65 percent of average.

General Discussion/Forecasts - Seasonal volume forecasts in the Gila Basin reflect the dry conditions that exist in the Basin. April-May runoff volumes are forecast to range from 20 to 40 percent of median.

Model Soil Moisture/Observed Streamflow - Streamflow volumes for March were much above median on some of the headwater locations, such as the Little Colorado near Lyman Lake, and Chevelon Creek. Elsewhere streamflow volumes were below median.

Snowpack/Precipitation - Snowpack was above average in the Little Colorado southern headwaters on March 1st. By early April much of the snowpack had melted off, resulting in enhanced streamflow on streams draining these areas. Precipitation during March ranged from mostly 5 to 40 percent of average. Seasonal precipitation is near 75 percent of average.

General Discussion/Forecasts - Streamflow volumes in the Little Colorado Basin are expected to range from 20 to 50 percent of median for the April-May period.

Differences between the full period forecasts and the residual forecasts may not exactly equal the actual observed volumes due to rounding conventions (see Definitions section).