The following conditions influenced this month's forecasts:

Precipitation:
Seasonal October-March precipitation was near 75 percent of average in the upper Salt River Basin and Verde River Basin.

March precipitation was 55 percent of average in the upper Salt River Basin and 85 percent in the Verde River Basin.

Streamflow:
March streamflow was near 35 percent of median on the Salt River, 15 percent of median on the Tonto, and 40 percent of median on the Verde River.

Snow:
The snowpack has been all but depleted with only isolated pockets of snow remaining in high elevation protected areas.

Salt River Basin Snow Plot.
Verde River Basin Snow Plot.

Soil Moisture:
Soil moisture conditions were below average at the onset of the runoff period due to dry conditions late last summer and most of the winter. The wettest soils existed in the Salt River Basin, however these have become drier as the snow has melted and below average precipitation occurred in March.

Climate Forecasts:
La Nina climate conditions suggest decreased chances for precipitation in this area. The La Nina influence was accounted for in generation of these forecasts.

Forecast Summary:
Much below average precipitation occurred in March while the remaining snow melted. Seasonal precipitation dropped to below average from last month.

These conditions are consistent with La Nina climate conditions that currently exist. Below average precipitation and below median runoff are observed more frequently during La Nina events. April-May forecast volumes range from 31 to 50 percent of median.

The following conditions influenced this month's forecasts:

Precipitation:
Seasonal October-March precipitation was 80 percent of average.

March precipitation was 40 percent of average.

Streamflow:
March streamflow was around 40 percent of median.

Snow:
The snowpack has been depleted in the Gila River Basin with only isolated pockets of snow at higher elevations in the San Francisco Basin.

Upper Gila Basin Snow Plot.
San Francisco Basin Snow Plot

Soil Moisture:
Very dry conditions in the Gila Basin for several months has resulted in below average soil moisture conditions.

Climate Forecasts:
La Nina climate conditions suggest decreased chances for precipitation in this area. The La Nina influence was accounted for in generation of these forecasts.

Forecast Summary:
The Gila River Basin has experienced below average precipitation for most of the winter and all of last summer. Runoff conditions have subsequently been much below median throughout the winter and early spring. These conditions have been consistent with La Nina climate condtions that currently exist. Although La Nina conditions are expected to weaken into early summer, climate outlooks suggest below average precpitation into early summer. April-May forecast volumes range from 5 to 55 percent of median.

The following conditions influenced this month's forecasts:

Precipitation:
Seasonal October-March precipitation was near 75 percent of average .

March precipitation was 55 percent of average throughout the Little Colorado Basin.

Streamflow:
March streamflow on the Little Colorado at Lyman was near 90 percent of median.

Snow:
Snowpack has been depleted in the Little Colorado Basin. Only isolated pockets of snow remain at highest elevations.

Little Colorado Snow Plot
Central Mogollon Rim Snow Plot

Soil Moisture: Below average seasonal precipitation resulted in below average soil moisture conditions in the headwater locations.

Climate Forecasts:
La Nina climate conditions suggest decreased chances for precipitation in this area. The La Nina influence was accounted for in generation of these forecasts.

Forecast Summary:
The presence of La Nina climate conditions suggest below average precipitation through the spring. Below average seasonal precipitation exists over most of the Little Colorado Basin, with below average soil moisture conditions in the headwaters. Snowpack was below average for the season and has since melted off. April-May streamflow volumes are forecast to range from near 10 to 41 percent of median.

Differences between the full period forecasts and the residual forecasts may not exactly equal the actual observed volumes due to rounding conventions (see Definitions section).